how's it going? ,Shanghai’s rental market
"Brother, there is a one-bedroom apartment here for 3,500, would you like to come and take a look..."
This is the twentieth call made by the agent Xiao Liu in one day. Anyone who has rented a house with him before and left their contact information will call them one by one.
"Recently, I feel that house rents have dropped. Some have dropped by a thousand, while others have dropped by three to five hundred." Xiao Liu said.
Is this feeling real? Some self-media even said that "Shanghai's rental market is rapidly collapsing." We analyzed the data from the country and Shanghai and found that the truth is actually...
First of all, the decline in rents in winter is a cyclical phenomenon.
The housing rental market also has slow periods and peak periods. Generally speaking, the "returning season" after the Spring Festival from February to March and the "graduation season" from July to August are the peak seasons for the rental market. At this time, rents increase month-on-month at a higher rate.
After September, the rental market entered the off-season, demand dropped, and the price of rent also dropped. Statistics show that after September, rents experienced negative month-on-month growth, which is the so-called "renting at reduced prices".
This year is no exception, with rents nationwide falling by an average of 0.1% per month after September.
Judging from the data, the average rent in first-tier cities is actually relatively resilient, with the largest rental declines occurring in third- and fourth-tier cities.
According to China Index data, among the 50 key cities in the country, residential rents have increased cumulatively in 19 cities and decreased cumulatively in 31 cities.
Sanya, Changsha and other places saw the largest increases, with a cumulative increase of more than 3%. The largest declines occurred in Wenzhou, Xuzhou, Zhengzhou and other places, with the declines reaching more than 5%.
Although Shanghai's residential rents have fluctuated slightly since January this year, they have not changed much compared with last year, which is in line with normal cyclical changes. And from a month-on-month and year-on-year perspective, average rents have increased in the past two months.
As of November, the average rent in Shanghai was 84 yuan/square meter.
Looking at each district, only two districts, Qingpu and Jinshan, saw rents fall year-on-year and month-on-month in November, and the year-on-year declines were larger, falling by 1.39% and 1.84% respectively.
In central urban areas such as Jing'an and Xuhui, rents are still on an upward trend. Jing'an increased by 0.37% year-on-year and 0.81% month-on-month.
Agent Xiao Liu said that the poor market may be related to the declining payment ability of tenants.
According to a survey by Zhongzhi Data, nearly 40% of those who plan to move or change rents do so because of lower income expectations and need to change to cheaper housing.
Another important reason is that the accelerated supply of rent-guaranteed housing has also had a stabilizing effect on market rents to a certain extent.
In 2023, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that "it is necessary to vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing, solidly promote the transformation of shantytowns, and start new construction to raise 3.6 million yuan for various types of affordable housing such as affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and shared ownership housing, as well as shantytown reform resettlement housing." set".
Data show that as of the third quarter of this year, 72% of the task of raising and building 2.04 million units of affordable rental housing nationwide has been completed, and the cumulative scale of financing is expected to reach 5.65 million units by the end of 2023.
Among them, first-tier cities plan to build more than 70,000 units of affordable housing in 2023. Many second- and third-tier cities have also launched rental-guaranteed housing financing plans.
Taking Pujiang Town, Zhoukang, and Songjiang New Town as examples, the three sectors with the largest supply of rent-guaranteed housing in Shanghai. By analyzing the transaction rental prices of individual houses in these three areas, we can see that the year-on-year decrease in rents in the three blocks in 2022 has exceeded 3.5%.
It can be seen that in the short term, due to the impact of lower income expectations of residents, and the increase in affordable housing diverting the demand for market-oriented rentals, rental prices have indeed fluctuated to a certain extent, but in the long term, as the economy recovers, residents As incomes rise, the rental market will continue to pick up.
