How is the Shanghai property market? , one month after the introduction of the new policy

In the past month, Shanghai has adjusted and optimized its property market policies many times.

On January 13, Fengxian District and Qingpu District successively issued housing purchase policies for talents in the Xincheng area, relaxing the qualifications for home purchase, adjusting the social security and personal tax restrictions for non-Shanghai talents, and lowering the threshold for talents to purchase houses.

In mid-December last year, Shanghai also adjusted its housing credit policy, including reducing down payment ratios, lowering interest rates, and adjusting ordinary housing standards.

So, what impact do these policies have on the property market?

Judging from the sales situation, the New Deal at the end of last year played a positive role in driving the Shanghai property market, and purchasing power has recovered.

According to data from China Index, in the half month after the release of the New Deal, the average daily transaction volume of new houses in Shanghai was around 364 units, an increase of 19% compared with the first to 14th of the month. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31%.

Judging from the data for the whole month, although it is not as good as the same period last year, the month-on-month increase is obvious.

According to data from Centaline Real Estate, the transaction volume of commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded 54.2 billion yuan in December, a month-on-month increase of 38.55%. It was the only month in the fourth quarter with positive month-on-month growth.

Moreover, if compared with the same period in the past five years, the transaction amount in December 2023 is relatively stable, better than the situation in 2021 and 2019.

Judging from the transaction area and number of commercial housing transactions, the stimulus effect of the New Deal is also significant.

According to data from the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration, in December 2023, Shanghai’s commercial housing transaction area and number of transactions achieved positive growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. The transaction area ranked second in the 12 months of the year, with a month-on-month increase of 36.85% and a year-on-year increase of 10.74%.

The number of transactions was also the best result in the past five months, with a month-on-month increase of 25.52%.

In terms of residential area, residences of 90-120 square meters are the most popular, with a total of 5,628 units sold in December, accounting for 51.69% of the total sales.

The New Deal also played a role in promoting houses of this size. According to data from the Shanghai Housing Administration, the year-on-year decrease narrowed in December, rebounding to a decrease of 2.81% from a 45.54% decrease in November.

In addition, residences with an area of ​​less than 70 square meters are most affected. The number of units sold year-on-year in November was still in negative growth, but in December it increased by 20.42%.

In addition to new homes, the transaction situation of second-hand homes has also improved.

The number of second-hand housing transactions in December was 16,378, a month-on-month increase of 3.93%, which was the highest monthly sales volume since the fourth quarter.

In addition to transaction volume, housing prices in December also reflected the positive effects of the New Deal.

In terms of average transaction price, the month-on-month decline has stopped, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed.

According to data from the Shanghai Housing Administration, in the second half of the new policy, the average daily transaction price of commercial housing in Shanghai was 47,200 yuan/square meter, an increase of 3.12% compared to the first half of December.

Judging from the average price of sample residential properties, the current Shanghai property market prices are relatively stable.

According to Wande data, since July 2022, the average price of sample housing in Shanghai has been in a state of negative growth, and has lasted for nearly a year. It was not until August 2023 that it turned from negative to positive and began to recover.

Data show that the average price of sample housing in Shanghai in December was 51,400 yuan/square meter, rising slightly year-on-year for five consecutive months, with the largest increase of 0.94% in December.

The average listing price of second-hand housing has also turned negative to positive month-on-month.

Data show that in December, the average listing price of second-hand housing in Shanghai was 70,800 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month increase of 2.38%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, although the growth rate has slowed down, Shanghai’s real estate development investment is still on a positive growth trend. Under the combined influence of multiple new reforms, it is expected to be better improved in the future.

From a national perspective, although the property market may not recover quickly in a short period of time, there is already an improvement trend.

On the one hand, judging from the transaction situation, the number of commercial housing transactions in various tier cities in December last year increased significantly compared with November.

The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased significantly month-on-month in December, reaching 33.73%. The year-on-year decrease was 7.35%, which was significantly narrower than that in November.

On the other hand, residential prices in various tier cities have also tended to improve.

Among the data from 100 cities, the residential price index in second-tier cities achieved positive growth of 0.05% in December after five consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth. The residential price index in third-tier cities all showed negative growth year-on-year, but the decline trend narrowed significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% in December.

The year-on-year decline in residential price index in first-tier cities is also narrowing.

Looking more closely, among the first-tier cities, residential prices in Shenzhen are mainly on a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.22% in December. In the other three first-tier cities, the year-on-year increase in the average residential price in the sample was all positive in December. .

Judging from the current trends, first-tier cities are expected to see a steady rebound in the property market in 2024 under the background of favorable policies and the demand for resilience. In third-tier cities and below, due to weak fundamentals and strong property market policies, it is expected that it will take some time for full recovery.