How is the economy of various countries doing? , three-quarters of this year has passed

The National Bureau of Statistics of China released data showing that GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding market expectations.

The global economy is still weak. According to the latest forecast of the IMF, world economic growth will slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% this year and 2.9% next year. Compared with the forecast in July, it will be the same and 0.1 points lower respectively. percentage point.

Steven Barnett, chief representative of the International Monetary Fund in China, pointed out: The world economy will be full of resilience in 2023, but the scarring effect of the post-epidemic economy has generally occurred.

So, how is the economic development of major countries in the first three quarters of this year?

Judging from the GDP data of major countries, the economic growth rates of various countries are different, and the GDP growth of some countries is weaker than expected.

U.S. GDP growth in the first and second quarters of this year was both better than expected. The preliminary GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 2.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Even if it was revised down to 2.1% in August, it was still higher than the market expectation of 1.8%. Although U.S. third-quarter data has not yet been released, according to its forecast data from the Atlanta Fed, GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to rise to 3.9%.

Personal consumption and business investment in the United States have shown strong momentum. Personal consumption accounts for about 70% of the total U.S. economy, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7% in the second quarter; corporate non-residential fixed investment also increased by 6.1%.

Japan's economic recovery is also very strong, with GDP growth in both the first and second quarters of this year higher than expected. Data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office on August 15 showed that Japan’s economy grew by 1.5% month-on-month from April to June, and the Japanese economy is expected to see V-shaped growth this year.

In contrast, European economic growth momentum has weakened.

In September, the European Commission lowered its economic forecast for the euro area from 1% to 0.8%, and the expected growth in 2024 from 1.7% to 1.4%. Weak domestic demand, falling consumer spending, and inflation are the main reasons.

Among them, Germany, the largest economy in continental Europe, is entering recession.

In the first half of this year, German GDP was significantly weaker than expected, falling wages depressed consumer spending, and falling external demand led to sluggish exports. The GDP growth rates of countries such as the Netherlands and Italy are also lower than expected.

China's situation is still the highest in terms of GDP growth, and its growth is better than expected. GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.3%, and GDP growth in the third quarter was 4.9%. It seems that the growth rate in the third quarter has declined, but in fact there is a base effect behind it.

The recovery of China's economy is mainly due to the obvious recovery momentum of the tertiary industry.

In the first three quarters, the GDP of the primary and secondary industries increased by 4.0% and 4.4% year-on-year respectively, both lower than the tertiary industry. The added value of the tertiary industry was 50,299.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, and the contribution rate in the three quarters exceeded 60%.

The service industry economy generally continued its restorative growth trend, and major economic indicators improved.

In the first three quarters, the added value of the service industry increased by 2.3% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the service industry production index increased by 0.1% year-on-year, of which the third quarter increased by 1.2% year-on-year, 4.5 percentage points higher than the second quarter.

Thanks to this year's tourism boom, the contribution rates of the transportation, warehousing and postal industries, accommodation and catering industries in the first and second quarters of this year have all turned from negative to positive compared with the fourth quarter of 2022.

The contribution rate of the wholesale and retail industry, leasing and business services industry has also increased significantly compared with last year, and even exceeded the same period in 2019.

In addition, the contribution rate of the primary industry was slightly higher than that in 2019, while the contribution rate of the secondary industry was almost the same as in 2019.

The WTO released its latest report on October 5. As global trade continues to be sluggish, it has lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2023 from the original 1.7% to 0.8%, a reduction of more than half.

This is also directly reflected in the export situation of the world's major exporting countries.

Although the export data of some countries in September have not yet been released, judging from the data in July and August, exports in the third quarter were relatively "bleak".

The United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, and France are all the top ten countries in terms of global export value in 2022, but the year-on-year growth rate of exports in July and August was almost negative.

For example, the export value of the United States entered negative year-on-year growth in April this year; South Korea's exports have experienced negative growth for 12 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% in September this year.

The situation in the EU is not optimistic either. The year-on-year growth rate of merchandise trade exports of its 27 countries entered negative growth in July, and the negative growth trend of the Netherlands has not yet reached an inflection point.

Dragged down by declining global demand, China's exports are also declining from their strong performance during the epidemic. However, after three months of year-on-year declines, the year-on-year decline in exports in September has narrowed significantly to only 0.6%, which is basically the same. .

Moreover, if we look at the total import and export volume, the scale in September hit a new monthly high during the year. Among them, the "three new things" represented by electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells are still new growth points for exports.

In the first three quarters, the total exports of the "three new products" reached 798.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, accounting for 4.5% of total exports, and the year-on-year share increased by 1.3 percentage points.

Changes in export trends are also reflected in the following two points:

ASEAN is still my country's largest trading partner, accounting for 15.2% of my country's total exports in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.

Emerging markets such as Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America have seen greater growth in imports and exports. For example, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports to Central Asia in the first three quarters reached 33.7%, which is much higher than the overall growth rate of my country's foreign trade.

Second, orders from companies have increased and confidence has improved.

According to China Customs trade boom statistics, the proportion of companies with new export and import orders increasing month-on-month or staying the same in September increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with August, while the proportion of companies that were optimistic about exports also increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with August.

The manufacturing PMI index released by the National Bureau of Statistics is also on an upward trend.

Affected by events such as the COVID-19 epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, almost all countries around the world have suffered from inflation problems that have been at a relatively high level for decades.

According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, although global inflation this year is expected to drop to 5.9% from 9.2% last year, the overall trend is slowing down. However, the IMF also stated that it is unlikely that inflation in most countries will return to the target level before 2025. Inflation in 2024 will still reach 4.5%.

Although inflation has slowed, if measured by the Fed's preferred core inflation measure excluding food and energy, the annual rate of inflation in the past two months has been close to 4%, which is twice the target set by the Fed.

The same goes for the Eurozone. Although inflation has continued to decline, the Vice President of the European Central Bank said that inflation will remain at a high level for a long time and is not expected to slow to 2.1% until 2025.

In contrast, the concern about China is that inflation is too low.

After briefly turning negative in July, China's inflation data in August has rebounded to 0.1%, and was flat year-on-year in September, still lower than expected.

Compared with the inflation rate, PPI has declined year-on-year for the twelfth consecutive year. However, the good news is that the decline in the last three months has continued to narrow, and there are obvious signs of bottoming out.

According to IMF forecasts, the world economy is expected to grow by 3% and 2.9% this year and next respectively. China will remain the largest engine of global economic growth, contributing one-third of global growth.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that as long as GDP growth in the fourth quarter remains above 4.4%, the expected target of around 5% for the whole year can be guaranteed, and he is very confident that the expected target for the whole year will be achieved.

But at the same time, he also said that the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and domestic demand is still insufficient. In the next stage, it is still necessary to continue to expand effective domestic demand and stimulate the vitality of business entities to promote continued improvement in economic performance.