The number of second-hand housing listings has skyrocketed, with many people "selling one, buying one" and 30 to 50% more homebuyers

This year, the scale of second-hand housing listings in Tianliang has been further catalyzed by the new policies in the real estate market.

Recently, first tier cities collectively announced the implementation of "recognizing houses but not loans". Many homebuyers who were originally identified as second homes have overnight acquired the status of "first homes" - the lowering of the down payment threshold for home purchases and the lowering of mortgage interest rates have prompted many people to restart their home purchase plans, especially those who were previously under significant financial pressure as improvement oriented homebuyers.

According to institutional data, the overall heat of the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has increased after the implementation of the policy of recognizing houses but not loans in first tier cities.

It is worth noting that for homebuyers, most of them are "sell one buy one": selling their current holdings is the first step in changing houses. In addition, coupled with owners who take advantage of the situation to sell houses for cash, the number of second-hand houses listed in major cities has continued to rise recently.

Industry insiders believe that the number of listings in most cities has significantly increased compared to last year, and the market sentiment is more wait-and-see. With the implementation of favorable policies, market sentiment will gradually improve.

Buyers actively view properties to drive transactions

The most obvious response to the implementation of the new policy is that there have been more people looking at houses.

The new policies in Beijing have changed the exploratory adjustments in the past and fully implemented the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy at the city level. The speed and intensity of policy implementation exceeded expectations, directly leading to a rebound in new and second-hand housing transactions.

According to data from Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate, after the implementation of the new policy, the number of second-hand housing buyers in Beijing is mainly based on customers who have seen houses before, with the most active being those who have been re recognized as first-time buyers, mostly the "sell one buy one" customer group; In terms of transactions, according to real-time monitoring data, more than 2800 sets were sold from September 2nd to 3rd, which is twice the average weekend transaction in August.

The new house transactions are also quite impressive. According to market monitoring data, over 1800 new houses in Beijing were sold on September 2nd, exceeding 50% of the total online signing transactions for new houses in August. Thanks to the positive impact of the new policy, some unsold projects or projects with slow sales in suburban areas also experienced a small peak in transactions over the weekend.

Yang Yulei, Chief Analyst of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, said, "The increase in trading volume last weekend was mainly due to customers who had previously had purchasing intentions and were waiting for policies to be implemented, choosing to quickly 'get on the car'. The stores mainly increased their viewing and consulting volume, with a weekend viewing volume increase of about 30%. The consulting customers mainly asked about the details of policy changes and whether their situation was in line with the policy benefits."

After the policy was introduced, the viewing volume of multiple real estate intermediary platforms in Shenzhen has been increasing. On September 3rd, the Zhongyuan platform in Shenzhen saw the highest increase in daily viewing volume, with a 75% increase compared to August. On the same day, the viewing volume of Leyoujia platform increased by 50% compared to the Sunday average level in the second and third quarters.

According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, after the implementation of the policy of recognizing houses but not loans, the enthusiasm of customers to view houses has increased. However, the increase in transaction volume is not yet significant. Last weekend, the transaction volume of Leyoujia's second-hand houses increased significantly month on month, and the willingness of improvement oriented customers to enter the market has significantly increased. However, it has not yet reached the peak of the March Xiaoyangchun period and is far from reaching the level of 2020.

The overall real estate market in Guangzhou is relatively calm. A person from a real estate intermediary platform told First Financial that due to the relatively short period of policy implementation until now, there have been no particularly significant changes or fluctuations in various data, and the subsequent impact of the policy still needs to be observed.

In terms of the new housing market, on September 3rd, a sales consultant for a certain property in Liwan District, Guangzhou, told First Financial that due to the typhoon weather, not many people went to the sales office to see houses on weekends. "It is expected that there will be more people next weekend."

The number of second-hand housing listings has increased

It is worth noting that the improved demand for housing exchange released by the policy of "recognizing a house but not a loan" has led to a further increase in the already high number of second-hand housing listings.

Beijing is one of the cities with the strongest market response. According to data from Zhongyuan Real Estate, the number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing has significantly increased after the new policy. On September 2nd, more than 3000 new listings were added, and the number of second-hand housing customers increased by about twice. Among them, 600 units have seen a price increase, and most homeowners are switching houses for "sell one buy one". Overall, the transaction price has remained relatively stable.

An intermediary from Lianjia also told reporters that after the implementation of the new policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" in Beijing, the number of properties listed for sale by homeowners has significantly increased. Currently, the number of second-hand properties listed in Beijing has exceeded 150000.

Compared to other cities, Beijing homeowners are also relatively strong in price expectations. "It's too difficult to negotiate prices with second-hand property owners now." The above-mentioned intermediary said that after the new policy was introduced, many property owners in Beijing have "bitten the price very hard", firmly believing that the market will increase prices in the future and will no longer sell houses at a discount. "I once talked to the homeowner from 8 pm to 4 am and didn't want to lower a penny."

The second-hand housing market in Shanghai is also experiencing an increase in listings. According to data provided by Shanghai Lianjia, its weekend new listing volume has increased by about 65% compared to before, and weekend trading volume has also increased by about 70% compared to before.

According to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, on September 4, 2023, a total of 53000 valid second-hand housing units were on sale in Shenzhen, an increase of 523 units from last week, and the number of listings continued to increase. According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, from August 30th to 31st, the first and second days of the official announcement of the new policy, the daily increase in the number of new listings by homeowners was about 20%, but from September 1st, it returned to its pre policy level.

Although there has been an increase in the number of listings, Shenzhen homeowners have not seen a significant increase in prices. On the contrary, many homeowners who are eager to "sell one buy one" choose to sell their homes at a lower price.

The Leyoujia Research Center stated that overall, the willingness of Shenzhen property owners to sell has fluctuated slightly under the influence of policies, and their mentality has to some extent strengthened, but it has little impact on the overall listing volume and there has been no selling trend. In addition, the mentality of homeowners is relatively stable and there is no large-scale price reversal. The current average second-hand listing price in Shenzhen still maintains a downward trend. Among the properties that were adjusted in price last week, the proportion of lowered prices has increased, while the proportion of raised prices has decreased.

Zhuge Data Research Center believes that with the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy in multiple cities, the willingness of some "sell one buy one" homeowners to list will increase, especially in first tier cities, which is expected to drive an increase in the number of second-hand house listings.

Many of them are listed as "old, broken, and small"

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the decline in second-hand housing transaction volume and the continuous growth in listing volume have become hot topics of concern in the real estate market.

According to monitoring data from Zhuge Data Research Center, the number of second-hand residential listings in 10 key cities in August 2023 was 1.6176 million, an increase of 1.97% month on month and 40.91% year-on-year. Entering August, although the transaction situation has slightly improved, the listing volume is still at a high level.

From the month on month comparison of listing volume in various cities, the listing volume of second-hand houses in all 10 cities increased slightly in August. Among them, Suzhou and Xiamen ranked among the top in terms of gains, with increases of 2.92% and 2.83% respectively; Next are Hangzhou and Qingdao, both with month on month increases of over 2%. Compared to the same period last year, except for Qingdao, all other 9 cities saw a year-on-year increase, with Hangzhou ranking first with a year-on-year increase of 129.26%; Shenzhen followed closely with a growth rate of 115.86%; Nanjing and Suzhou both saw year-on-year growth rates of over 50%.

It is worth noting that in recent years, with the changing housing demand preferences of young people, "old and dilapidated small" houses have become increasingly unpopular. Among these newly added listings, many are "old and dilapidated small" or lower priced essential housing.

In June of this year, First Financial selected 10 cities with high second-hand housing listings, including Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Hangzhou, and collected their listing classification data. The results showed that among the listed housing sources, small apartment listings accounted for a relatively large proportion, with Tianjin having the highest proportion of small apartment listings, reaching 72%; In addition, among the listed houses, there are fewer secondary new houses with a building age of less than 10 years, and the proportion of secondary new houses does not exceed 30%, which also shows that the houses with a building age of more than 10 years account for the majority of second-hand housing supply.

The 2023 Youth Real Estate Report released by 58 Anjuke Research Institute shows that nearly 50% of young people purchase houses to improve their current living environment; The most important factor when choosing a property is the safety precautions of the community. In terms of layout, over 70% of young people are more willing to choose three bedroom or more housing, while only 1.3% choose one bedroom. In addition, young people tend to prefer new houses, accounting for 74.7%, while only 9.4% prefer to purchase second-hand houses.

Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate believes that after the implementation of the new policy, although market sentiment has accelerated and market trading volume has rapidly increased in the first weekend, it is still necessary to rationally see that the current market performance is mainly due to the concentrated release of previously accumulated demand. The healthy and stable development of the follow-up market still needs to be nurtured. The new housing market mainly focuses on destocking, and it is not recommended to blindly raise prices or create a panic atmosphere; In the second-hand housing market, it is recommended that both buyers and sellers maintain reasonable and stable market expectations, conduct transactions at reasonable prices, and accelerate inventory depletion.