Stall or slight increase?, The domestic oil price adjustment window opens on the 6th
On September 6th, China News Service reported that at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. The institution believes that this round of oil price adjustment will face shelving or a slight increase.
According to Dai Tiandong, a product oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, although the market is concerned about the economic outlook and oil demand, and concerns are enveloping the market, the disturbance of the US Gulf of Mexico hurricane has led the market to pay more attention to the reduction of US crude oil supply, and the significant destocking of US crude oil inventories has resulted in stronger fundamentals. In addition, the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate hikes has strengthened. Therefore, the overall international crude oil market has shown a volatile upward trend since the beginning of this cycle.
Dai Tiandong analyzed that the domestic reference crude oil change rate is constantly rising within the negative range and is currently at a positive low level. If international oil prices fluctuate or slightly rise at the current level, the current retail price limit for refined oil products will face a situation of being stranded or slightly raised. According to Zhuochuang Information, at the close of September 4th, the reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day in China was 0.58%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 20 yuan/ton.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on September 5th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 83.70 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 0.32%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 15 yuan per ton.
According to the current pricing mechanism for refined oil products, the main basis for adjusting domestic refined oil prices is the rate of change obtained by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil prices over ten working days with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle. If the corresponding increase or decrease in the rate of change is less than 50 yuan/ton, no adjustment will be made temporarily, and it will be added up or offset in the next price adjustment.
Zhao Guizhen, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that overall, there are expectations of a new round of retail prices being stranded, and the short-term guidance for wholesale gasoline and diesel is not strong.
According to China News Service, domestic refined oil products have undergone 17 rounds of adjustment this year, with gasoline prices increasing by 670 yuan/ton and diesel prices increasing by 645 yuan/ton as a whole. If this price adjustment is shelved, it will be the third time it has been shelved within the year. In 2023, the price adjustment of refined oil products will show a pattern of "nine increases, six decreases, and three shelving".
According to the principle of ten working days, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 20th.
For the future market, Zhuochuang Information believes that September is the traditional peak season for demand, with a slight increase in oil consumption for outdoor infrastructure projects in China. The fishing ban period has gradually ended, and diesel demand has slightly improved. Frequent operations by midstream and downstream customers have led to a short-term upward trend in domestic diesel prices, with some regions experiencing an increase of 200 yuan/ton. However, in terms of gasoline, with the start of the school season, residents are reducing their short distance driving trips and gradually returning to commuting as the main mode of transportation. Terminal gas stations rely on sales to determine purchases, and the market's purchasing and selling performance is average, so the price changes are relatively small.
Longzhong Information stated that it is about to enter the peak season of demand for "Golden September and Silver October". As the summer vacation ends, the demand for air conditioning oil will decrease, and it is estimated that there will only be stocking demand before and after the National Day holiday; As the demand for industrial and mining infrastructure logistics gradually increases, diesel demand is better than gasoline. In the medium to long term, demand gradually weakens in mid to late October, and there is still positive support from export quotas at the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may face downward pressure later on.
