Will Biden withdraw from the election? ,In-depth | Caught in debate crisis
Last Thursday, a 90-minute televised debate between U.S. President Biden and former President Trump was like a public opinion bomb. It not only triggered calls for "persuasion" from the mainstream media in the United States for many days, but also caused panic and discussions about "changing generals" within the Democratic Party.
So far, according to American public opinion, Biden has survived the critical 72 hours of the "political survival battle", and the top leaders of the Democratic Party strongly support his re-election campaign. However, Biden is not completely out of danger. From Washington to all over the world, many people are still concerned about the same question: Will Biden withdraw from the election?
At about 10 p.m. local time on June 27, the TV debate between Biden and Trump ended. Trump turned and left, while Biden, supported by the "First Lady," carefully stepped off the stage. He probably didn't know at the time that "bad reviews" were pouring in like a tide.
"We are done." Some Democratic activists were shocked and anxious about Biden's performance, and many called for a "change of generals." They originally thought that Biden could continue his performance in the State of the Union address a few months ago and express his views fluently. However, Biden not only stuttered, but also said incoherently "defeated Medicare" when explaining the key medical plan.
The pro-Democratic mainstream media in the United States also sounded the alarm and called on Biden to withdraw from the election.
Wei Zongyou, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, pointed out that Biden's performance in the debate basically met the low expectations of the outside world. He completed the entire 90-minute debate and basically answered all the questions asked by the host without making any major mistakes. But in comparison, Trump looked better, not as aggressive as he was four years ago, good at catching Biden's handles, more fluent in expression and more responsive, thus exposing Biden's usual weaknesses such as stuttering, slow reaction and inability to express himself. In addition, compared with the first debate four years ago, Biden's demeanor and body language were not as confident and energetic as they were then, and he looked nervous and tired.
"It was a bit surprising that the pro-Democratic media that had always supported Biden collectively 'turned against' him after the debate." Wei Zongyou noted that a well-known columnist from the New York Times first suggested that Biden withdraw from the election, and soon after, the New York Times published a sharp editorial, and many mainstream media followed suit. This shows that they believe that the debate fully exposed Biden's weaknesses and are worried that Biden will not be able to stop Trump from entering the White House.
Faced with the overwhelming public opinion, 81-year-old Biden and his team quickly launched a "political survival battle."
On the one hand, Biden himself did not back down. After the debate, he went to four states to participate in seven campaign events. The "First Lady" and her family supported him to continue his campaign. According to people familiar with the matter, at the family gathering at Camp David last Sunday, family members including Hunter Biden cheered Biden on.
On the other hand, senior Democratic Party officials and celebrities have voiced their support for Biden and called on the party to stop discussing "changing generals". Biden's team called to appease some top Democratic donors.
The latest news is that Biden is scheduled to meet with Democratic governors and congressional leaders on Wednesday local time. The Democratic National Committee is considering speeding up the nomination process and formally nominating Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate as early as mid-to-late this month to eliminate noise within the party.
Wei Zongyou pointed out that whether it is former President Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, or the current California Governor Newsom, senior Democratic Party officials still support Biden. The reason behind this is mainly based on the realistic consideration that the risk of "changing generals at the last minute" is too high.
There is no consensus within the Democratic Party on alternative candidates, which may lead to infighting. Vice President Harris lacks charisma, has unclear policy ideas, is less popular within the party and the country, and has little recognition even among ethnic minority groups. If Harris is left out, there is no clear alternative candidate. California Governor Newsom and Michigan Governor Whitman are popular locally, but not well-known nationwide, and some of their policies have been criticized.
According to the poll data released by Reuters/Ipsos on the 2nd, the three potential replacement candidates mentioned above were unable to take the lead in the duel with Trump, and even performed worse than Biden. Other public opinion said that former "First Lady" Michelle Obama might surpass her opponent in the duel with Trump. But she has repeatedly stated that she does not intend to run for president.
From the perspective of timing, Wei Zongyu pointed out that there are only a few weeks left until the Democratic National Convention. If there is a big fight over the new candidates by then, it will cause greater damage to the election situation.
More importantly, can “changing generals” really turn around the Democratic Party’s election situation?
Wei Zongyou pointed out that in the context of bipartisan confrontation and political polarization, it is difficult for Biden and Trump to shake each other's die-hard voters. The only voters who really need to win over are less than 20% of centrist "swing" voters. According to recent polls, Trump has a slight advantage in "swing states", while the Democratic Party's support among young people, African Americans and Latino voters is declining. This has little to do with the debate, but is mainly related to the dissatisfaction caused by the Biden administration's policies in the fields of economy, immigration, and security over the past four years.
Let's look at economic governance first. Although Biden boasted about the good economic growth momentum, the good stock market performance, and the record high employment rate, inflation has always been an indelible shadow during his four-year term. For ordinary people, especially the middle class, they can feel the impact of high inflation on their purchasing power and living standards, including rising prices, rents, and tuition fees.
Looking at immigration policy, many voters believe that the Biden administration's relatively relaxed border immigration policy over the past four years has led to an influx of 6 million to 10 million illegal immigrants into the United States, which has not only increased urban crime rates and increased local fiscal burdens, but also snatched jobs from low- and middle-income African Americans and Latinos. This is also an important reason why many African Americans and Latinos are dissatisfied with Biden.
Finally, looking at the public security situation, the public believes that the Democratic government's relatively relaxed policy towards crime has led to the deterioration of urban public security, rampant petty theft, and complaints from individual business owners.
From the above perspective, "changing the generals" cannot change the root cause of the Democratic Party's policies that have caused public dissatisfaction. For this reason, "even if they are not satisfied with Biden's performance, the Democratic Party may still move forward around Biden," said Wei Zongyou.
As of press time, Biden's debate crisis has not subsided. Headlines such as "Biden team strives to contain internal rebellion in the Democratic Party" and "Democrats are panicking" still occupy the front page headlines of mainstream American media such as The New York Times and The Washington Post. Texas Congressman Lloyd Docter became the first Democratic congressman to publicly call on Biden to withdraw from the campaign on Tuesday.
However, according to poll data, Biden's approval rating has not suffered much loss. Reuters/Ipsos poll data on the 2nd showed that Biden and Trump's average approval ratings were both 40%, and Biden even narrowed the 3% gap with Trump a few days ago.
Some American public opinion said that since last week's debate, Biden has survived the most turbulent 72 hours of the campaign and has more or less regained control of his political destiny, but he is not completely out of danger.
From the perspective of the party, leaders of other factions within the Democratic Party, whether center-left or progressive, did not lend a helping hand to Biden when he needed it; the support Biden receives from senior party officials is still tentative, and the situation may change at any time if polls show that voters are increasingly concerned about his age and health.
Domestically, Biden’s loss of support from the liberal media may not be fatal, but it means that the important protection network enjoyed by the Democratic Party has been severely damaged.
Will Biden withdraw from the election? How will he spend this "long and hot" summer?
Wei Zongyou pointed out two important factors. One is the attitude of Biden and his family; the other is the attitude of the main "financial backers" of the Democratic Party. The nomination of presidential candidates is based on the results of the party's primary elections. Unless Biden intends to withdraw, the party cannot replace him at will. Biden has always claimed that he has left Trump behind in terms of fundraising. If the "financial backers" abandon Biden one after another, it will mark the end of his campaign. Therefore, whether Biden can retain the support of the main "financial backers" will have an important impact on his campaign. If Biden and his family can withstand pressure from all sides before the Democratic National Convention and insist on not withdrawing, then there is basically no suspense about his winning the party nomination.
Looking ahead to the election situation of the two parties, Wei Zongyou believes that national polls are of little significance. The "red states" and "blue states" in the United States are relatively fixed, and the outcome of the election depends on six or seven key "swing states". At present, in terms of these "swing states", Trump has a clear lead in the three southern states; in the three states in the "rust belt", the two parties are evenly matched in Wisconsin, and Trump may still have a slight lead in the other two states. If Trump can win two more states in the last three states, it may be difficult for the Democratic Party to save the situation.
