There will be more favorable policies next year that will stabilize expectations, stabilize growth and stabilize employment. Han Wenxiu: This year’s main development goals are expected to be successfully achieved

The 2023-2024 China Economic Annual Conference hosted by the China International Economic Exchange Center was held in Beijing on the 13th. At the meeting, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work and director of the Central Agricultural Office, said that the main expected goals of my country’s economic and social development in 2023 are expected to be successfully achieved.

He said that recently, domestic and foreign institutions have successively raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. This year, my country's contribution to global economic growth is approximately more than 30%, and it is still the largest "engine" of the world economy.

Talking about next year's economic work, Han Wenxiu said that it is necessary to adopt more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and to cautiously introduce contractionary and suppressive measures. We must be proactive in changing methods, adjusting structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency. What should be established must be proactively established, and what should be broken must be broken resolutely on the basis of the establishment. At the same time, we must proceed steadily and not rush for success.

Many institutions predict that China’s economy will grow by 5.2% this year.

Han Wenxiu said that in 2023, China's economy will develop in waves and move forward in twists and turns, generally showing a pattern of high growth, low prices, stable employment, and a basically balanced balance of payments. The economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter, and 4.9% in the third quarter. Now, many institutions predict that the full-year economic growth will be around 5.2%. The year-on-year economic growth rate for the whole year will be low, medium-high, and then stable.

He said that in 2023, new urban jobs are expected to reach more than 12 million people, and the consumer price index will increase by about 0.4%. Despite the decline in exports from major trading countries, my country's import and export volume was basically the same year-on-year, or even slightly increased, and the share of exports in the international market remained at a slightly higher level of 14%. The scale of foreign exchange reserves remains above US$3 trillion, and the RMB exchange rate is basically stable.

How to treat "seeking progress while maintaining stability to promote stability first and then break"

The Central Economic Work Conference requires that next year we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and then breaking. We must develop more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment. We must transform methods, adjust structures, improve quality, and increase employment. We will be proactive in terms of efficiency and continuously consolidate the foundation of stability and improvement. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools.

Han Wenxiu said that seeking progress while maintaining stability means taking "stability" as the overall situation and foundation, developing more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment, and cautiously introducing contractionary and suppressive measures. Promoting stability through advancement means taking "advance" as the direction and driving force, actively making progress in transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to consolidate the foundation for improvement while maintaining stability. To establish first and then destroy is to take into account both "stability" and "advance". What should be established must be proactively established, and what should be broken must be resolutely destroyed on the basis of the establishment. At the same time, we must work steadily and steadily, grasp the timing, timing, and effectiveness, and cannot be divorced from reality and rush for success.

Proactive fiscal policies should be appropriately strengthened and improve quality and efficiency. Han Wenxiu said that it is necessary to arrange appropriate-sized deficits, local government special bonds, central budget investments, and central transfer payments, and implement structural tax and fee reduction policies. The key is to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure and use money "on the cutting edge." to improve the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds and policy effects. It is necessary to strictly supervise transfer payment funds, strictly enforce financial discipline, and strictly control general expenditures. It is necessary to secure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level to ensure that people's livelihood is guaranteed and the finances are sustainable.

A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, appropriate, precise and effective. Han Wenxiu said that liquidity should be maintained at a reasonable and sufficient level. The scale of social financing and money supply must match the expected goals of economic growth and price levels, which is conducive to better coordinating the expected goals of actual economic growth and price levels, and is more in line with the reality of macroeconomic control. The price level is the "thermometer" of the macroeconomy. It is not good to be too high or too low. Prices must be kept at a moderate and moderate level. Finance should increase its support for the real economy, do a good job in the five major articles of science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, promote the stability and decline of comprehensive social financing costs, and form a link between the economy and finance. A virtuous cycle.

China’s economic development “generally sees more opportunities than challenges”

Han Wenxiu said that China's economic development faces many favorable conditions and important opportunities. Overall, the opportunities outweigh the challenges. The basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the factors and conditions supporting high-quality development continue to accumulate and increase.

——Our country has a very large market. We have a population of more than 1.4 billion, more than 400 million middle-income groups, and an urban population that exceeds the total population of Europe. my country's consumption and investment potential is huge. The urbanization rate of the permanent population has reached 65.2%, and there is still much room for improvement. The urbanization rate of the registered population is 17.5 percentage points lower than the urbanization rate of the permanent population. Making up this gap will in itself release huge social demand.

——China still has sufficient macro policy space. Price levels are low, central government debt levels are not high, and there is still plenty of room for fiscal and monetary policies. In 2023, my country will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of government bonds, introduce a "package" plan to resolve local debt risks, and lower the deposit reserve ratio. These policy effects will continue to be released in 2024.

——Comprehensively deepen reforms to inject new impetus into development. Our country has the unique advantages of a complete industrial system and strong supporting capabilities. Technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, quantum technology, bio-manufacturing and other fields are accelerating. Green development based on low-carbon, energy-saving and environmental protection standards promotes the accelerated transformation of production and consumption, which will provide great benefits to our country. Economic development provides greater dividends and a broader stage.