Today's data selection: RMB deposits decreased by over 100 billion in July; The overall sluggish mobile phone market in the second quarter | middle-aged and elderly | consumers | mobile phones

By 2050, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in China will exceed 500 million

Recently, the 16th Western Conference - China Health Industry Ecology Conference opened in Boao, Hainan. At the opening ceremony, Yuan Xin, Vice President of the China Population Society and Professor of the School of Economics at Nankai University, delivered a keynote speech.

According to relevant data cited by Yuan Xin, in 2022, China's total fertility rate was 1.2, with 850000 fewer births than deaths, making it one of the countries with the lowest fertility rates in the world. At the same time, the average life expectancy has exceeded 78 years. On the one hand, they are giving birth less and living longer, and on the other hand, there are more and more people at the top of the age structure, which is the fundamental reason for aging and negative population growth.

"The changes in population will inevitably bring about changes in age structure." According to the original report, it is expected that by 2050, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in China will exceed 500 million. The changes in population age structure will inevitably bring about changes in social governance and economic development structural elements. He said that before the 1980s, China had the largest elderly population in the world and also had the highest degree of aging among countries with a population of over 100 million.

The real estate policy has entered a stage of comprehensive relaxation

On August 11th, it was learned from multiple real estate companies that the China Securities Regulatory Commission convened an online meeting of some real estate companies and financial institutions on the morning of that day, with multiple top and medium-sized real estate companies participating. In the afternoon of that day, a relevant person from a leading real estate enterprise in East China revealed to the reporter that the specific convener of this meeting was the Corporate Bond Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the main content was to understand the current sales, cash flow, and debt situation of the real estate enterprise. The format of the meeting is for each company to report separately through video, so I am not familiar with the report content of other participating real estate companies.

Another person from a real estate company in East China also told reporters that they did attend the meeting. A person from a real estate company in North China told reporters that the convening of this meeting should be good news for the company, "Everyone is gritting their teeth and waiting for the wind to come."

However, several officials from state-owned enterprises stated in an interview with Meijing that they did not attend the meeting.

Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 24th set the tone for real estate, multiple departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the National Development and Reform Commission have continued to voice positive signals, and real estate policies have entered a phase of comprehensive easing.

From the implementation of policies in various regions, by the end of July, all four first tier cities had expressed their willingness to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents; On August 3rd, Zhengzhou took the lead in issuing 15 measures, firing the first shot in optimizing the real estate market policy. Afterwards, Nanjing also implemented real estate optimization policies for entering and exiting Taiwan.

Central Bank: RMB deposits decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan in July

On August 11th, central bank data showed that at the end of July, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 283.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The balance of RMB deposits was 277.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with growth rates 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively. In the first seven months, RMB deposits increased by 18.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 129 billion yuan year-on-year. In July, RMB deposits decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.17 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits decreased by 809.3 billion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by 1.53 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 907.8 billion yuan, and deposits from non banking financial institutions increased by 413 billion yuan.

In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 16.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.67 trillion yuan year-on-year. In July, RMB loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 349.8 billion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 2007 billion yuan, including a decrease of 133.5 billion yuan in short-term loans and 67.2 billion yuan in medium - and long-term loans; Corporate unit loans increased by 237.8 billion yuan, including a decrease of 378.5 billion yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 271.2 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 359.7 billion yuan in bill financing; Loans from non banking financial institutions increased by 217 billion yuan.

The consumption expenditure of middle-aged and elderly people in China and the United States accounts for 30% of the overall consumption in both countries

Boston Consulting released a report in Shanghai on the 11th, stating that the middle-aged and elderly consumer group accounts for a significant share of global overall consumption expenditure. In China and the United States, the expenditure of middle-aged and elderly consumers accounts for 30% of the overall consumption of both countries, while in countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this proportion is even higher at 40%.

BCG's Consumer Insight Think Tank conducted research on 18000 consumers of different income levels in 12 major markets including Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, the UK, and the US, with a particular focus on consumers aged 50 to 70. Its research shows that among the nine major consumer products such as automobiles and travel, the middle-aged and elderly population in these markets spend approximately $7 trillion annually, accounting for 27% of the overall consumption.

The report states that among consumers aged 50 to 70, 20% of the main consumers are referred to as "active middle-aged and elderly consumers", and their consumption expenditure accounts for approximately 55% of the total expenditure of consumers in this age group in all surveyed product categories. Active middle-aged and elderly consumers usually have an optimistic personality and a positive lifestyle.

Although middle-aged and elderly consumers generally consume less per year in various categories, their individual consumption is often higher. The report points out that this is because they place more emphasis on quality, often choosing products with higher prices and higher end. This is particularly evident in high-value consumer categories such as automobiles, travel, and investment, as well as in other categories such as alcohol and clothing.

In addition, research has shown that middle-aged and elderly consumers are also quite active online, with 90% of them using social media every day. Although the middle-aged and elderly population values face-to-face communication with salespeople, they also enjoy the convenience brought by online channels.

"The middle-aged and elderly consumer group is often overlooked by brands due to a series of widespread misconceptions. People often believe that the middle-aged and elderly group is price sensitive and relies more on physical stores for shopping, but this is not the case. Many marketers have not recognized the consumption influence of the middle-aged and elderly group," said Epana Paharidava, one of the report authors, BCG Managing Director and Global Partner, and CCI Global Head.

Has the Chinese mobile phone market bottomed out?

According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology on the 11th, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market from January to June 2023 reached 130 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, the shipment of 5G mobile phones reached 102 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Data from market research institutions confirms that the demand for mobile phones in China remained sluggish in the second quarter. According to Counterpoint's data, in the second quarter of 2023, smartphone sales in China decreased by 4% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since the second quarter of 2014. In April and May, smartphone sales remained weak, and the performance of the 618 promotion season was relatively weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 8%, ultimately leading to a year-on-year decrease of 6% in June sales.

Despite the overall downturn in the mobile phone market in the second quarter, the decline has narrowed. According to the quarterly tracking report of International Data Corporation on mobile phones, the shipment volume of China's smartphone market in the second quarter of 2023 was about 65.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, with a significant narrowing of the decline. IDC believes that currently, basic consumer demand has not yet recovered, so there will be no significant improvement in the shipment volume of manufacturers and upstream supply chains. The smartphone market is still in a low valley, and the market situation has not improved.