What impact will it bring? , real estate market policies in first-tier cities may be comprehensively adjusted

"Beijing is the only first-tier city that has not yet issued new policies. If you are not in a hurry, you can wait. It should be done soon."

On the morning of May 30, Mr. Wang, a staff member of an agency in Beijing, received many calls from home buyers asking about down payment, interest rates and other issues. Mr. Wang told Chao News reporters that after Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have all adjusted their property market policies, Beijing will most likely make similar moves to further lower the threshold for consumers to buy homes. Therefore, in recent times, both consultation volume and transaction volume have increased.

Many real estate experts also predict that the comprehensive adjustment of property market policies in first-tier cities will boost market activity in core cities, thereby accelerating the process of bottoming out and stabilizing the national market.

On May 27 and 28, first-tier cities Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively optimized their property market policies and made adjustments to down payment ratios, mortgage interest rates and home purchase qualifications.

Compared with Shanghai, Shenzhen is completely consistent in terms of the down payment ratio and the minimum interest rate for first and second homes. But at the same time, it has not dropped to 15% and 20%, achieving differentiation from non-first-tier cities.

Shenzhen has clarified that starting from May 29, it will lower the minimum down payment ratio and the lower interest rate limit for personal housing loans. The minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans for the first home is adjusted from the original 30% to 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the personal housing loans for the second home is adjusted from the original 40% to 30%. The lower limit of interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for first homes is adjusted from the original LPR-10BP to LPR-45BP, and the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rates for second homes is adjusted from the original LPR30BP to LPR-5BP.

Picture But unlike Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangzhou has made greater strides in property market policies.

This time, Guangzhou clarified that the down payment ratio for the first and second homes should not be less than 15% and 25%, both of which have been reduced to the lowest level. Compared with the 30% and 40% before the policy was introduced, they were both reduced by 15 percentage points, significantly reducing the cost of home purchase. threshold for home ownership. Guangzhou has also reduced the social security/individual tax period requirement for non-local registered households to purchase houses of less than 120 square meters in purchase-restricted areas from 2 years to 6 months.

Overall, the current purchase restriction policy in Guangzhou has been relatively relaxed, and the entry threshold for home buyers with non-local household registration has dropped significantly.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, told Chao News reporters that in Guangzhou, not only have sales restrictions been lifted, and the standards for identifying first-time homes have been loosened, social security for non-household registration buyers in restricted purchase zones has also been reduced from 2 years to 6 months, becoming The lowest among first-tier cities.

The Pearl River Delta, with Guangzhou as its core, has a relatively large migrant population, accounting for a large proportion. To unlock the potential of housing demand, the key lies in the non-registered population. Li Yujia said that currently three houses in Guangzhou can be loaned, which directly exceeds the country's past differentiated housing credit policy restrictions on "no loans for more than three houses." From a side perspective, the current market willingness to increase leverage to purchase houses is relatively low, and the enthusiasm for lending needs to be boosted.

According to the China Index Research Institute, in January this year, after Guangzhou lifted the purchase limit of more than 120 square meters, the wait-and-see mood of home buyers has eased to a certain extent, and the siphon effect of core areas on outer suburbs and areas near Guangzhou has increased. Judging from market performance, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial residential buildings in April 2024 increased by 4.8% month-on-month and decreased by approximately 30% year-on-year. Since May, the average weekly transaction area of ​​new homes has been basically the same as in April, but the year-on-year decline is still relatively large, and the pressure for adjustment in the new home market is still there.

Li Yujia believes that the background for the introduction of property market optimization policies in first-tier cities is that new home prices and transaction volumes have fallen, developers’ capital chains have been tight, it has been difficult to deliver houses sold in the early stage, and social risks have begun to emerge. Therefore, there is an urgent need for strong policy intervention to correct market imbalances or even failures, prevent systemic risks, ensure delivery, and safeguard the rights and interests of home buyers.

"As a first-tier city, Beijing should soon make adjustments to its property market policies." Yan Yuejin, research director of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, told Chao News reporters that for specific adjustment measures, the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate may be further reduced. . As for whether purchase restrictions will be further relaxed, the possibility is not very high.

Mr. Wang, the above-mentioned real estate agent, also told Chao News reporters that at the end of last month, Beijing had introduced relevant policies to relax purchase restrictions. This was also the first adjustment in Beijing’s 13-year housing purchase restriction policy since 2011. On the basis of the previous relaxation of purchase restrictions, it is unlikely that the purchase restrictions will be adjusted again.

The picture is from the perspective of Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Research Department of the China Index Research Institute. In the short term, expectations for Beijing’s relevant policy optimization will be further strengthened, and a number of policy measures will be implemented, which is expected to boost market activity in core cities, thus accelerating the bottoming out and stabilization of the national market. process.

From the perspective of policy space, Beijing currently still imposes city-wide purchase restrictions. Non-local home buyers require social security/personal tax for 60 consecutive months. The purchase restriction policy is the most stringent in the country. The down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate are also at a high level, and there is room for optimization.

Cao Jingjing believes that Beijing may lower the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate. The down payment ratio for the first home is expected to drop to 20%, and the mortgage interest rate will drop below LPR. The down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate for the second home may set different requirements according to different regions. In addition, increasing the provident fund loan limit, reducing transaction taxes and fees, and reducing existing mortgage interest rates are also important directions.

In addition to the above policy directions, supporting policies aimed at improving housing quality, coordinating increment and stock, and smoothing the first- and second-hand chains are also expected to be implemented, such as promoting the "replacement of old housing with new ones", optimizing land auction rules, and adjusting the 1.0 land plot ratio limit, etc. .

Yan Yuejin told reporters that after first-tier cities adjust and optimize property market policies, the national property market and the property market in key cities will show a process of increasing volume and stabilizing prices, further improving the transaction efficiency of the real estate market.

However, overall, the real estate market still faces difficult problems.

"Because in the current environment, the demand for real estate is insufficient and is actually lower than normal levels. In addition to the suppression of demand by policies such as purchase restrictions, mortgage restrictions, and sales restrictions, there are also some important factors, such as the overall expected income of middle- and high-income families. It is relatively weak, and everyone’s expectations for housing prices have not yet reversed. In this case, most people may make a wait-and-see decision. In addition, everyone is still worried about guaranteeing the delivery of projects by private developers.” At a recent media meeting held at JPMorgan Chase, Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase and head of economic research for Greater China, believed that this round of real estate policy combination has released a signal from the central and local governments to stabilize the real estate market as soon as possible, which is conducive to boosting the real estate market. confidence.

Li Yujia believes that it remains to be seen whether first-tier cities can play the leading role in the real estate market as before. What is more likely is that a stronger siphon effect will appear in first-tier cities, attracting out-of-town home buyers to buy local properties. "At present, the overall deployment of the '5.17' real estate new policy has not been fully implemented, including measures such as the 'acquisition and storage' of existing houses." , the development trend of the property market remains to be seen.”