How to see the changes in financial data in the first four months

Credit is extended "every small month is not small", and the pace becomes more stable and moderate; the structure continues to be optimized, and support for key areas and weak links is increased; loan interest rates remain at historically low levels, effectively reducing the interest burden of enterprises...

The People's Bank of China recently released financial data for the first four months of this year, showing that financial support for the real economy remains solid.

RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan, RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan, and RMB loans to the real economy increased by 9.44 trillion yuan... Recently, the People's Bank of China released financial data for the first four months of this year. What are the new features of financial support for the development of the real economy this year? How do you view changes in relevant financial data? The reporter conducted the interview.

The total amount of loans in April was "not small in a small month", and the credit structure continued to be optimized

Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has been flexible, appropriate, precise and effective. The People's Bank of China has used a variety of policy tools to support the recovery of the economy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing more than 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity, and maintaining the liquidity of the banking system. Sex is reasonable and abundant.

Judging from financial data, a series of monetary policy measures are gradually taking effect, my country's financial aggregate has grown steadily, and financial support for the real economy has remained solid. From January to April, my country's RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan, which was a high level in the same period in history. As of the end of April, my country's social financing stock was 389.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, of which the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 244.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%.

According to historical rules, April, July and October are usually "small months" for loans, but in April this year, credit issuance is "small months but not small", and the pace has become more stable and moderate. Experts generally believe that the total amount of loans in April was "not small in a small month", the credit structure continued to be optimized, interest rates remained low, and the RMB exchange rate also remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, creating a good monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development. .

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that new loans in April were more than 730 billion yuan, and credit growth is stable and balanced. At the same time, the scale of social financing remains relatively high, with the balance of broad money exceeding 300 trillion yuan, effectively ensuring the financing needs of the real economy.

Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has achieved remarkable results in guiding reasonable growth and balanced lending. The "big and small months" phenomenon has been significantly alleviated, and the stability and sustainability of credit lending have been enhanced.

"The current credit supply is 'small every month, but not small', and the rhythm is more stable and moderate." Zhang Jun, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, said that the "roller coaster" phenomenon of credit supply caused by financial institutions' "good start" in previous years has been alleviated this year, and financial institutions have rushed to improve their performance. The guidance of indicators has weakened, and credit extension has become more stable.

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed: "Give full play to the dual functions of the total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, revitalize the stock, improve efficiency, and guide financial institutions to increase their investment in technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro businesses, and the digital economy." "Revitalizing the stock and improving efficiency have become important directions for monetary policy this year.

Since the beginning of this year, my country's credit structure has continued to be optimized, and financial support has been increased for key areas and weak links in national economic development. The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to promote the continuous optimization of the credit structure, setting up 500 billion yuan of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, relaxing the scope of support tools for inclusive small and micro loans, continuing to implement special re-loans for inclusive pensions, and guiding by improving policy incentive mechanisms. Commercial banks will do a good job in the "five major articles" of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance.

Data show that as of the end of April, the growth rate of my country's green loans and medium- and long-term manufacturing loan balances remained at a high level of around 30%, and the growth rate of "specialized, specialized, special and innovative" enterprise loan balances was nearly 20%, continuing to inject new momentum into economic development.

Financing costs have stabilized but declined, and interest rates have effectively played their role in optimizing resource allocation.

While the total amount of credit is sufficient and the structure is optimized, financing costs have stabilized and declined, further improving the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy.

The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China: my country's loan interest rates currently remain at historically low levels. The weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans in April was 3.76%, basically the same as the end of last month and 23 basis points lower than the same period last year; new personal housing loans The interest rate was 3.7%, 2 basis points lower than last month and 48 basis points lower than the same period last year.

Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has guided market interest rates downward through measures such as lowering the deposit reserve ratio and re-lending interest rates to support agriculture and small businesses. The policy effect is obvious, and loan interest rates have entered the "3" era, effectively reducing the interest burden of enterprises.

Zhou Shaofang, head of Hunan Baling Furnace Energy Saving Co., Ltd., said: "The company just received a 10 million yuan credit loan in March, with an interest rate of only 3.65%, which timely alleviated the funding gap for technological transformation. It is expected that after the new project is put into production, the company will produce more Special energy-saving equipment for industrial furnaces will save energy and reduce carbon emissions by 40%-60%.”

"The loan market quoted interest rates announced in April were unchanged from the previous month, continuing the previous stable trend, in line with market expectations, and also reflecting the characteristics of the current monetary policy seeking balance while being stable." Wen Bin said that some credit interest rates are already relatively high. Low, the LPR quotation remains unchanged, aiming to prevent idling and improve efficiency, which can not only boost economic growth, but also guide the structural adjustment of existing financial resources.

Residents’ deposits are diverted and transformed, and the growth rate of money supply is expected to stabilize

According to the financial data released by the People's Bank of China, the growth rate of M2 fell back at the end of April, which has attracted widespread attention from the market. Data show that the M2 balance at the end of April was 301.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the end of March. At the same time, at the end of April, my country's RMB deposit balance was 291.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, which was also significantly lower than the 7.9% growth rate at the end of March. Experts interviewed said that there are many reasons for this phenomenon.

Since the beginning of this year, the bond market has continued to rise, residents' enthusiasm for purchasing financial management products has increased, bank deposits have been diverted to non-bank products such as financial management, non-bank institutions have abundant funds, and the demand for borrowing money from banks to purchase bonds has decreased.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that in April, banks' financing to non-bank institutions dropped significantly. According to a rough estimate, the reduction may be around 3 trillion yuan. Deposits are "diverted" to the financial market, causing M2 growth. On the downside, the growth rate of narrow money has also declined due to this impact. As bond prices rise, the yield on investment in related financial products increases, and it is also obvious that corporate demand deposits "move" to financial management.

At the same time, many departments have recently increased their efforts to regulate funds such as "low loans and high deposits" idling arbitrage and banks' manual interest supplements. Zhang Yu believes that the irregular deposit and lending activities of some banks have reduced, which will have a "squeezing water" effect in the short term and will have a certain downward impact on M2. However, financial institutions still fully meet the needs of the effective real economy, and the total financial support for the economy is more substantial and more efficient. This not only reflects the high-quality development of finance, but also promotes business entities to focus on their main business and avoid idling funds.

Data show that in the first four months, household deposits increased by 6.71 trillion yuan, but non-financial corporate deposits and fiscal deposits decreased by 1.65 trillion yuan and 187.4 billion yuan respectively. According to a relevant person from the People's Bank of China, in the process of the economic cycle, if banks are still expanding assets and increasing loans, money will not decrease from the real economy, nor will it disappear. Fiscal revenue and expenditure are transferred among enterprises, residents and governments.

Experts predict that the growth rate of my country's money supply will stabilize in the next few months. "The current financing demand of the real economy is gradually improving. There are more positive factors in the economic operation, the momentum continues to increase, the economic recovery is obvious, and there will be more financing needs in areas such as technological innovation, green development, and inclusive small and micro businesses. " said Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union.