Is there a subtle change in Yin Xiyue's China policy? , in-depth | South Korean Foreign Minister returns to Beijing for China-ROK relations after 6 and a half years | Wang Junsheng | Yin Xiyue

"I will take an important first step to create new impetus for the development of South Korea-China relations." South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Dui-yeol told reporters at Seoul's Gimpo Airport before flying to the Chinese capital Beijing in the early morning of May 13.

On the same day, Zhao Duilie flew to Beijing for a two-day visit to China.

This is the first time Cho Dui-yeol has been invited to visit China since he took office as foreign minister. It is also the first visit to Beijing by a South Korean foreign minister in six and a half years.

Analysts believe that this visit can be regarded as an opportunity for the Yin Xiyue government to make subtle adjustments to its China policy and ease relations with China. However, whether China-ROK relations can truly improve depends on South Korea's sincerity and actions.

In recent years, although the interactions between the foreign ministers of China and South Korea have not been intensive, they have taken various opportunities to maintain a certain rhythm.

For example, in July 2022, the foreign ministers of the two countries met on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Bali; in August, the then South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin visited Qingdao for his first trip to China during his tenure; in December, the foreign ministers of the two countries met Video meetings were also held.

In July and November last year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Park Jin had exchanges and meetings respectively during the International Forum on China-Japan-ROK Cooperation and the China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

In February this year, Wang Yi had his first phone call with South Korea’s new Foreign Minister Cho Dui-yeol.

However, it has been six and a half years since then South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha visited the Chinese capital in November 2017, and Cho Dui-yeol's trip to Beijing has been "delayed".

At the same time, since Chinese President Xi Jinping visited South Korea in 2014 and then South Korean President Moon Jae-in visited China in 2017, the heads of state of China and South Korea will only meet during the G20 Bali Summit in 2022, and no exchange of visits has been achieved so far.

For two neighboring countries with important political and economic ties, the frequency of high-level exchanges between China and South Korea is not high.

Investigating the reason, Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that in addition to the previous interference from the new coronavirus epidemic, what is more important is that the Yin Xiyue government has pursued value-based diplomacy and a one-sided policy towards the United States since it came to power. High-level exchanges between China and South Korea cause impact.

There are two reasons why the South Korean Foreign Minister resumed his trip to Beijing after six and a half years.

First, South Korea, as the rotating chairman country, needs to prepare for the China-Japan-ROK leaders’ meeting that may be held at the end of this month.

Second, the disastrous defeat in the April congressional election proved that Yin Xiyue failed to pass the "assessment" in power, which put him under pressure in many aspects such as economy, diplomacy, and regional issues, and he needed to adjust policies to respond to domestic dissatisfaction.

Whether it is South Korea's weak economy or the increasingly tense situation on the peninsula, in the eyes of many South Korean people, they are all related to Yin Xiyue's unbalanced foreign policy. In this regard, there have been voices of reflection in South Korea.

Some public opinion in South Korea pointed out that, keeping in step with the United States and Japan, the treatment South Korea received was not ideal. China is resuming exchanges and communications with the United States and other Western countries.

Given that China is South Korea's largest trading partner and a key player in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, South Korea calls on the government to return to balanced diplomacy and properly handle relations with China.

South Korean public opinion said that sending the foreign minister to visit China and actively promoting the China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting showed that the Yin Xiyue government was seeking to improve relations with China and trying to find a balance in diplomacy.

"For the Yin Xiyue government, faced with domestic dissatisfaction and pressure, domestic affairs are unlikely to improve in the short term, and diplomacy can be a breakthrough." Wang Junsheng said that Zhao Duiyeol's visit to China can be regarded as a subtle adjustment of South Korea's China policy.

Some comments pointed out that China and South Korea are close neighbors that cannot be moved away, and they are also partners with highly integrated interests and highly embedded production and supply chains. Strengthening dialogue and communication at all levels and maintaining the overall cooperation between the two sides is the common need of both sides.

According to South Korea, the foreign ministers of the two countries are scheduled to hold talks on the 13th to discuss a wide range of issues such as the development of bilateral relations, supply chain cooperation, regional hot spots such as the Korean Peninsula, and the international situation.

Before leaving, Zhao Duilie said that he would have candid and in-depth talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

In Wang Junsheng’s view, there are three major issues worthy of attention.

First, coordinate the time and agenda of the China-Japan-ROK leaders’ meeting to ensure China’s support. This is Zhao Duilie's top priority during this trip.

A few days ago, officials from South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that South Korea, China, and Japan are in the final stages of coordinating the trilateral leaders' meeting to be held from the 26th to the 27th of this month.

Wang Junsheng said that the China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting has been suspended for more than four years. If it can be restarted smoothly this time, it means that Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang will visit Seoul for the first time during his term, indicating that China-ROK relations have eased. This will become a key issue for the Yin Xiyue government. A major diplomatic highlight will help ease its domestic pressure.

Cho Dui-yeol said that during the talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, South Korea's position will be clarified on principled issues, and at the same time, it will focus on discussing areas with huge cooperation potential with China to further consolidate the foundation for the development of bilateral relations.

Wang Junsheng pointed out that from South Korea’s perspective, production and supply chain and economic and trade cooperation are the focus.

From China's perspective, the Taiwan and South China Sea issues are major concerns. Especially in the context that Taiwan's elected leader Lai Ching-te is about to usher in the so-called "presidential inauguration", China will clarify its position.

Ding Che, deputy director of the Korea Foreign Economic Policy Research Institute, once pointed out that economic cooperation is an important driving force for maintaining relations between South Korea and China. The two countries should expand the level of cooperation through bilateral free trade agreements, and at the same time strengthen cooperation under the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

Analysts believe that China and South Korea can strengthen cooperation in high-tech, digital economy, new energy, climate change and other fields to tap cooperation potential.

Third, they will discuss regional hot spots and global issues, mainly exchanging views on the Korean Peninsula issue.

Wang Junsheng said that in the eyes of South Korea, North Korea's advancement of its nuclear and missile programs has led to an increasingly severe geopolitical environment. Seoul hopes that Beijing can play a role in helping to restrain North Korea and thereby manage the North Korean nuclear crisis.

In this regard, China's attitude is also very clear. Previously, Wang Yi pointed out in a phone call with Zhao Duilie that the current tensions on the peninsula are due to reasons. He hoped that all parties would remain calm and restrained, refrain from words and deeds that aggravate tensions, and resolve their respective legitimate concerns through dialogue and consultation.

In addition, according to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Cho Dui-ryeol will also hold discussions with representatives of Korean companies in China during his visit to China, and will convene a meeting with the consul general in China to introduce the results of the South Korean and Chinese foreign ministers' meeting, and urge the consulates general to actively carry out work and strengthen Communicate with local cities in China and contribute to the development of South Korea-China relations.

According to South Korean public opinion, Foreign Minister Cho Dui-yeol's visit to China is expected to be the beginning of improving relations between South Korea and China and provide an opportunity to resume high-level exchanges between the two countries, which were once estranged.

In this regard, Wang Junsheng also believes that this visit can be regarded as an opportunity to improve Sino-South Korean relations.

"In the more than two years since Yin Xiyue came to power, due to his one-sided attitude towards the United States and even intervention in the Taiwan issue, China-ROK relations have fallen to the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992. The top leaders of the two countries have not yet exchanged visits, which is extremely abnormal in the history of the development of bilateral relations. "Wang Junsheng said that from this background, the South Korean Foreign Minister's visit to China is of great significance for easing relations, enhancing understanding, and managing conflicts.

Huang Jae-ho, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said that although the government believes that its diplomacy with the United States and Japan has achieved results, it has no substantive results in its diplomacy with China. South Korea should make good use of opportunities such as the foreign minister’s visit to China and the upcoming South Korea-China-Japan leaders’ meeting to make up for this shortcoming.

However, Wang Junsheng emphasized that it is still necessary to remain cautiously optimistic about the direction of China-South Korea relations.

First of all, based on strategic, security, high-tech and other considerations, the Yin Xiyue government is unlikely to fundamentally adjust its one-sided foreign policy toward the United States.

Secondly, whether China-South Korea relations can truly improve depends on the actual actions of the Yin Xiyue government.

"The key lies in two points: whether China respects China's core interests involving sovereignty and security; and whether it targets China when conducting trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan." Wang Junsheng said that these are the two major obstacles currently restricting the development of China-South Korea relations.

If, on the one hand, we continue to closely follow the United States to suppress China, and on the other hand, we imagine that we can improve relations with China just by showing off, it will be counterproductive.

Wang Yi once talked about how China and South Korea can get along with each other by saying, "A gentleman believes in what he believes and makes it come true." This is not without warning to South Korea.

The relationship between China and South Korea has always been regarded as an important indicator of regional trends.

Analysts pointed out that since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, China-South Korea relations have played a huge role in promoting the region's transition away from the Cold War and improving the well-being of the two peoples.

Wang Junsheng said that after more than 30 years of development, China-South Korea relations have gone beyond the scope of bilateral relations and have impacted the region and even the world. Especially in the current complex international situation, it would be of more practical significance if China and South Korea could maintain cooperation and exchanges.

At the economic level, China and South Korea are among the top five economies in Asia. Strengthening economic and trade cooperation between the two countries will help promote the regional economic integration process, boost regional economic growth, and maintain the stability and smoothness of the production and supply chain.

At the security level, China and South Korea have common interests on the North Korean nuclear issue. If the two sides strengthen communication and coordination and strive to seek consensus, it will help maintain regional and even global peace and stability.

Returning to China-South Korea relations itself, as some commentators have said, to stabilize and develop relations between the two countries, both sides need to always anchor the general direction of friendly cooperation. Only in this way can we create the "new impetus" that Zhao Duilie expected for the relationship between the two countries.