Why does Prime Minister Sunak "don't want to wait any longer"? , in-depth | Britain welcomes the first "July general election" since 1945

According to reports, at 5 pm local time on May 22, British Prime Minister Sunak delivered a speech in the rain outside No. 10 Downing Street, announcing that the general election would be held on July 4. This is several months earlier than the autumn general election widely expected by the outside world, and will be the first "July general election" in the UK since 1945.

Sunak's expression was solemn as he made the announcement, his shoulders soaked by rain, and his voice was almost drowned out by the loudspeakers of protesters outside the gates of Downing Street. Some public opinion pointed out that since taking office in October 2022, the 44-year-old Indian-origin prime minister has inherited a bad political legacy-double-digit inflation rate, stagnant economy, soaring interest rates, and more than 20% support behind the Labor Party. Rate "deficit". In the past 18 months, he has achieved some early results - reaching an agreement with the EU, partially resolving the trade impasse in Northern Ireland, and exceeding the goal of halving the inflation rate. Now, with a glimmer of light at the end of the economic tunnel, Sunak doesn't want to wait any longer.

"Why now? Why not?" Some comments said that this is the question Sunak and his team have been thinking about before making the decision to hold the July election.

British general elections occur once every five years, with the last general election taking place in December 2019. According to the law, Prime Minister Sunak must announce the time for the general election before January next year. In the past few months, Sunak has repeatedly warned that a general election will be held in the second half of the year, and it is widely predicted that it will be in the autumn.

Earlier on the 22nd, senior British cabinet officials canceled their activities and attended the high-level cabinet meeting at 4 pm instead. Foreign Secretary Cameron even ended his foreign visit early. This rare arrangement was interpreted by the outside world as a sign of "early election".

In the history of modern British politics, there has been only one July election in 1945. At that time, the Conservative Party led by Churchill suffered a historic defeat with a gap of 145 seats despite leading the polls.

Today, the Conservative Party, which has been in power for 14 consecutive years, is in an even more difficult situation: it has experienced a series of chaos such as Brexit, the epidemic crisis, and the cost of living crisis. It has had five prime ministers in eight years, and its poll approval rating lags behind the Labor Party by an average of 23 percentage points. .

The Economist's forecast model shows that if a general election is held tomorrow, the Conservatives have less than a 1% chance of winning a majority; in the July general election, Labor will win 381 seats, defeating the Conservatives who only won 192 seats.

In this context, why did Sunak press the "start button" on the general election in advance?

Some Conservative MPs criticized Sunak as "crazy" and mocked him for leaving a way for him to start a business in the United States. Sunak's allies say he has increasingly wanted to hold a summer election in the past few weeks. He consulted Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and they agreed that the public finances could not afford further tax cuts and that waiting until the autumn would not bring additional economic encouragement.

Some public opinion believes that Sunak's decision was mainly based on two considerations: striking while the iron is hot and taking advantage of the situation.

On the one hand, just earlier on the 22nd, the UK announced its consumer price index in April, with the year-on-year growth rate falling to 2.3%, significantly lower than the 3.2% in March and the lowest in the past three years. Some commentators say there is some light at the end of the economic tunnel. Sunak took this as evidence that "inflation is under control and the economy is improving" and an important bargaining chip for early elections. But the good news may be fleeting, with inflation expected to rebound again in the second half of the year and a rate cut next month almost ruled out.

On the other hand, July 4th is only six weeks away. The sudden general election may catch the Labor Party and other small parties by surprise. At present, the Labor Party has not yet completed the selection of all parliamentary candidates. The ruling party may be able to take advantage of its political resources to conduct pre-election planning and build momentum more smoothly.

"The general election in July was a surprise. This shows that the Sunak government decided to take a risk after weighing the pros and cons under a difficult situation." Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that in terms of potential risks, the UK faces There are many economic and social problems in China, and it is difficult to change them in the short term. The plan to "deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda" has been passed and is expected to be subject to more criticism when implemented. The government may have decided that it would be better to cut the knot quickly than endure months of suffering.

At present, Sunak has obtained the king's permission to "dissolve parliament". According to the plan, the current parliament will be formally dissolved after May 30. Government ministers will continue to perform their duties until a new government is formed.

At a press conference on the 22nd, Sunak "seamlessly" started the campaign mode and listed the highlights during his administration, including the introduction of the "leave plan" and helping companies overcome the difficulties of the epidemic. At a rally that night, he boasted that the Conservatives had achieved their "top priority" of the past few years - getting inflation back to normal.

Outsiders believe that the Conservative Party is expected to launch its campaign around "economic achievements." During his 18 months in power, Sunak achieved some early results, including reaching an agreement with the EU, partially resolving the trade impasse in Northern Ireland, and exceeding the goal of halving the inflation rate when he took office. However, the electoral mountain Sunak must climb is still the "Himalayas". Saddled with a weak economy, disastrous tax cuts and a series of internal party scandals, he is unlikely to reverse an approval rating gap that has remained at about 20% for more than a year.

Looking forward to the July general election, what is the competition situation between the two major parties and what is the suspense of the election?

Overall, the economy, health, and immigration are the top three concerns of voters. On the economic front, high inflation has severely hit people's living standards in the past two years; the economy emerged from a mild recession at the beginning of this year, but investment is weak, there is a shortage of workers, and productivity growth is slow. On health, a majority of voters believe the NHS is failing to meet their needs. In terms of immigration, the British government failed to prevent illegal immigrant boats from crossing the English Channel, and 60% of the people believed that the government should take more effective measures.

In this regard, the two major parties have put forward their own opinions, with some overlaps and differences. The intersection is that both claim to maintain economic stability and promise to take a tough stance on immigration. The difference is that Labor emphasized that "the time for change has come", promised to pay more attention to the state of public services, especially the NHS, and criticized the government for "sending immigrants to Rwanda" as expensive and unrealistic.

Analysts say that British political parties are approaching a new round of power reshuffle.

"Looking at the history of British party politics, the Labor Party and the Conservative Party generally take turns in power, and may unite one or two small parties." Zhao Junjie pointed out that after the Conservative Party has been in power for 14 consecutive years, the Labor Party uses "change" as its slogan and puts more emphasis on social Welfare, justice and fairness, optimal allocation of resources, etc. Voters clearly want to see a fresh force for reform.

But at the moment, "the UK is facing a series of profound economic and social contradictions. The past economic development model and social welfare policies have exposed problems and triggered crises." Zhao Junjie pointed out that in this regard, the two major parties in the UK are unable to come up with practical solutions. plan. Even if the Labor Party comes to power, it is still unknown how many of the political slogans put forward before the election can be realized in the end.

In line with the overall trend in Europe, Zhao Junjie noticed that the trend of decentralization of the British political spectrum and political "fragmentation" continues unabated.

The Conservatives have not only lost the support of young people, their base in the south and southwest of England, and working-class people in industry, but they also face challenges from the anti-immigration right-wing parties. "Its vote share may drop to a historical low, and some small parties may gain more seats." Zhao Junjie pointed out that Britain may also need to form a three-party ruling coalition like Germany. Due to the diversified interest demands of various parties, the actual power of the government will be more dispersed.

What is striking is that when Sunak announced an early election, Labor supporters used loudspeakers to play the Labor Party's 1997 campaign song "Things Can Only Get Better" near No. 10 Downing Street.

After 14 years of waiting, this song seems to sing out the dissatisfaction of Labor supporters and ordinary British people with reality and their expectations for the future.

"In the context of the advent of the new technological revolution, the UK really wants to restore its former 'British Empire' style in international affairs, but it is unable to do so," Zhao Junjie pointed out.

On the one hand, the British economic growth is weak; the austerity policy adopted to deal with inflation has led to a significant reduction in fiscal expenditures, which has affected scientific and technological innovation capabilities and the improvement of public facilities; the hasty response to the issue of illegal immigration has been criticized by the outside world; with the tightening of immigration policies , the education industry has been impacted.

On the other hand, "Brexit" is a major failure. The close political, economic, technological and personnel ties between Britain and Europe have been cut off, and the wounds are still difficult to heal. Relations between major powers are not properly handled, and they follow the United States everywhere to "fire" and "throw money" ”, while promoting value-based diplomacy, its own influence has declined instead of increasing.

In this context, "the new government will not have an easy time, and there will be more uncertainties in the UK's development prospects." Zhao Junjie said that this election may allow the outside world to make more informed decisions about the UK's potential policy adjustments in the next few years. Clear prediction.