Cambodia is about to experience its first power change since 1979, with Hun Sen announcing the handover of power to Hun Manai | Hun Sen | Cambodia

After governing Cambodia for nearly 40 years, Hun Sen announced on the 26th that he will no longer serve as Prime Minister. The new government will be led by the future Prime Minister candidate of the Cambodian People's Party, Hun Manai.

At the age of 70, Hun Sen has transferred power to his 45-year-old successor and eldest son, Hun Manai, which is seen as an important step in Cambodia's intergenerational political transition. It is also the first time that this Southeast Asian country has transitioned from a conservative previous generation to a new one since the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge regime in 1979.

However, it is believed that given that Hun Sen will continue to hold important positions such as the chairman of the ruling People's Party, even if he steps down as prime minister, he will still play an important role in Cambodian politics. In the foreseeable future, the new government led by Hung Mane is expected to continue the Hun Sen line in both domestic and foreign policies, and is unlikely to undergo significant changes.

It's time to make way for young people

"I announce that I will no longer serve as Prime Minister, and I hope the people can understand," Hun Sen said in a special broadcast on Cambodia's national television station on Wednesday.

He also said that his son Hong Manai will lead the new Cambodian government.

Hun Sen stated that Hun Manai will receive approval from the king to become Prime Minister on August 10th. The new Cambodian National Assembly will hold its first meeting on August 21, and the new government will be sworn in on August 22.

According to the preliminary vote counting results released by the Cambodian National Election Commission on the 26th, the People's Party led by Hun Sen achieved an overwhelming victory in the 7th National Assembly elections held on the 23rd. The People's Party will form a new government.

Since taking office as the head of government in 1985, Hun Sen has been in charge of Cambodia for 38 years and is considered one of the longest serving leaders in the world.

Hong Sen's announcement of resignation may seem sudden, but in fact, he has already paved the way for Hong Manai's succession.

In 2021, the Central Committee of the People's Party unanimously elected Hung Man nai as the only candidate for future Prime Minister, which is believed to be determined by Hung Sen. In April this year, Hong Manai was promoted to four-star general. At that time, the outside world believed that Hun Sen was ready to let Hun Manai take over at any time. In the recent general election, Hong Manai won one seat in parliament for the first time, which is also seen as completing another stage of the worship process.

According to the Cambodian Constitution, the Prime Minister must be a member of parliament, and the candidate for the Prime Minister must obtain the support of the political party and be successfully elected as a member of parliament through national elections before being sworn in under the witness of the king.

In his speech on Wednesday, Hun Sen stated that the reason he is no longer serving as Prime Minister is to maintain long-term peace and stability in the country and provide security guarantees for future development.

He also said it was time to make way for a younger generation of leaders.

In the 1970s, Hun Sen served as a mid-level commander in the Khmer Rouge regime and later fled to Vietnam, becoming one of the important figures opposing the Khmer Rouge regime.

In 1979, after Vietnam overthrew the Khmer Rouge regime, Hun Sen entered the center of government and served as Foreign Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Prime Minister. In 1985, at the age of only 32, Hun Sen was appointed as Prime Minister for the first time, becoming the youngest head of government in the world at that time. In 1998, Hun Sen became Prime Minister and was re elected four times thereafter.

Having been in power for nearly 40 years, at the moment when Hun Sen announced his resignation, the outside world focused on the political career and achievements of this evergreen political figure.

Reuters and other media reported that although the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volk Turk, criticized Cambodia's shrinking democratic space in recent years, Hun Sen has been praised for making a series of significant contributions during his 38 year tenure, including his commitment to creating a peaceful environment, introducing a free market economy, improving healthcare, education, and infrastructure, and improving the living standards of Cambodian people.

According to data from the World Bank, under the leadership of Hun Sen, the Cambodian economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.7% from 1998 to 2019. Cambodia was upgraded from a low-income country to a middle-income country in 2015 and is expected to reach the level of a middle-income country by 2030.

Having been at the helm of Cambodia for many years, Hun Sen's political position is undoubtedly quite stable, but he has also faced challenges. In 2013, the People's Party faced a severe challenge from the opposition party, the Cambodian Salvation Party, and narrowly won the election.

There is also a lot of discussion among the outside world about how Hong Sen will pass on the phase. But the chairman of the Phnom Penh think tank "Future Forum", Ovirak, said that while some may feel uneasy, Cambodians generally believe that Hung Manai is qualified to replace his father.

The first Cambodian to graduate from West Point

At the time of regime change, the new generation of leader Hun Manai was naturally placed under the spotlight.

Hong Manai, who is currently 45 years old, is the eldest son of Hong Sen's five children. He grew up in Phnom Penh and joined the Cambodian military in 1995, with experience studying abroad in Europe and America.

Hong Manai went to study at West Point Military Academy in the United States and obtained a bachelor's degree, becoming the first Cambodian to graduate from West Point. Afterwards, he went to New York University and the University of Bristol in the UK to further his studies, obtaining a master's and doctoral degree in economics.

After completing his studies and returning to his home country, Hong Manai served in the military, serving as Deputy Commander of the Army Infantry Force and Commander of the Counter Terrorism Special Forces. Later, he was promoted to Deputy Commander in Chief and Army Commander in Chief of the Cambodian Royal Army, and was regarded by Western media as the "actual leader of the Cambodian army.".

In 2011, Cambodia and Thailand clashed over a territorial dispute, and Hong Manai led negotiations with Thailand to resolve the dispute.

During his tenure in the military, Hong Manai devoted himself to military reform, focusing on cultivating young officers and soldiers, and gained high prestige in the military.

In recent years, Hong Manai has gradually transitioned from the military to the political sphere, and his exposure has also been increasing.

In 2020, he was appointed as the Chairman of the Youth Movement of the Cambodian People's Party. The Cambodian People's Party has approximately 6 million members, of which 30% are young people aged 15 to 35. Under the leadership of such a youth force, Hong Manai's political status has significantly improved.

At present, Hong Manai also serves as the Central Executive Committee Member of the Cambodian People's Party and has met with several foreign leaders, foreign ministers, and other political figures in recent years.

Last year, he also met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In addition, he is also a guest at the regional defense forum.

According to media reports such as the Associated Press, unlike her father who has a serious expression, Hong Manai often wears a smile and a gentle tone, appearing approachable. He can also speak fluent English and has a diplomatic demeanor.

Will we enter the "post Hunsen era"?

Hun Sen's "baton exchange" with Hun Manai is seen as a significant event in the intergenerational political changes in Cambodia.

The Bangkok Post commented that as a descendant of the ruling elite, the inauguration of Hun Manai will be the first transition of the Cambodian government from a conservative generation to a new one since the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge regime in 1979.

The Associated Press believes that Hong Manai's succession is only a part of intergenerational transformation. Next, many young legislators are expected to also hold ministerial positions.

In his speech on Wednesday, Hun Sen stated that "it is very necessary to form a new cabinet mainly composed of young people... they are responsible for the future.".

A spokesperson for the People's Party recently stated that 90% of the new government's cabinet members will join, and only a few cabinet ministers will remain in office.

After the election on the 23rd, Hun Sen introduced the new leadership team to the international election supervision delegation, stating that it will include intellectuals who have received higher education, as well as digital technology professionals.

So, under the leadership of Hong Manai, does this younger ruling team taking the stage mean that Cambodia will enter the "post Hunsen era" and various policies will sharply shift?

Especially, will it be as expected by some Westerners that Hong Manai's Western education background and reform consciousness may change the foreign policy established by Hong Sen, such as distancing himself from China and moving closer to the West?

It is widely believed that this may be a wishful thinking. Even if Hun Sen transfers power, he remains an important political force in Cambodia for the foreseeable future, and under his influence, significant adjustments in domestic and foreign policies are unlikely to occur.

In fact, Hun Sen himself has made a clear statement on the issue of change or not.

Last month in an interview with the Phnom Penh Post, when asked if his son would govern in a different way, he stated that he did not expect a change in his style of governance. "Any similar disagreement means undermining peace and ruining the achievements of the older generation."

Hun Sen also said, "If my son doesn't meet people's expectations... I will take on the role of Prime Minister again."

At the same time, although Hun Sen resigned, he did not withdraw from politics.

In his speech on Wednesday, he specifically mentioned that although he does not serve as Prime Minister, he will still serve as the Chairman of the Cambodian People's Party, will also serve as the Chairman of the Senate, and will act as the Acting Head of State during the King's absence.

Some comments suggest that this means that Hong Manai may not be able to escape his father's influence for a period of time.

However, Ovillac predicts that the leadership style of the new generation of leaders, represented by Honmane, may change after taking office, such as more active policy discussions. But he also believes that there will be no major policy turnaround in Cambodia.

There are also comments that compared to focusing on diplomatic relations, Hong Manai's primary task after taking office will still be to develop the Cambodian economy. As he promised, Cambodia's national status and people's living standards will be improved, and Cambodian people will gain a stronger sense of national pride than in the glorious Angkor era.