Will the Russian backyard catch fire?, These two countries have announced a joint exercise
According to reports, the Armenian Ministry of Defense recently announced that Armenia and the United States will hold joint military exercises within Armenian territory from September 11th to 20th.
In response, Russian President's press secretary Peskov stated that the exercise between Armenia and the United States does not contribute to stabilizing the regional situation and strengthening mutual trust.
Armenia and the United States conducting exercises:
The act of killing two birds with one stone
Image: Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashnian
According to reports, there has been a recent exchange of fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the border area, and tensions in the Naka region have escalated once again.
Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashnyan recently complained in an interview that Russia has failed to protect Armenia from "ongoing aggression from Azerbaijan.".
Military observer Teng Jianqun believes that Armenia's joint military exercises with the United States in the above context are aimed at striking Russia and deterring Azerbaijan, but the practical significance of the exercises is not significant.
Teng Jianqun:
For a long time, Armenia has been very close to Russia. However, in the previous Naqa conflict, Russia did not fully side with Armenia, which was very disappointed. Therefore, Armenia showed indifference when Russia took special military actions and questioned Putin's policies.
In addition, this exercise is also aimed at deterring Azerbaijan, as once the United States sends troops in this area, Azerbaijan will not easily launch large-scale military operations against Armenia.
The scale of this exercise is obviously not large, but it reflects the United States' desire to further strengthen relations with Armenia while distancing itself from the traditional friendship between Armenia and Russia.
Russia Asia relations: constantly cutting and chaotic management
Data image: In the 2020 Naqa conflict, Azerbaijani tanks were destroyed by Armenian troops
Since the escalation of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in 2020, Armenia has had a rift with Russia. Pashniyan has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with Russia in public and even claimed to withdraw from the Central Security Organization.
In Teng Jianqun's view, although Armenia is currently constantly approaching the United States, it is difficult to cut off ties with Russia in the short term and completely lean towards the Western camp.
Teng Jianqun:
Putin hoped to win over both Armenia and Azerbaijan during the previous Naqa conflict.
Once a major country stops making commitments, Armenia turns its attention to another major country - the United States. Armenia not only invites the United States to conduct joint military exercises and refuses military exercises organized by the Central Security Organization, but also has a tendency to join NATO.
However, at present, Armenia's every move is still closely controlled by Russia, and it is unlikely to cross the "threshold" and enter NATO in one step.
Security asylum that Russia cannot provide,
Can the United States provide it?
Image: Armenian soldiers on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia
Last September, during a tense relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Pelosi made a special visit to Armenia, condemning the Afghan side and promising security assistance to the Asian side.
Teng Jianqun said that there is a question mark about how much security the United States, which has always been generous but not practical, can provide to Armenia.
Teng Jianqun:
Once the United States succeeds in Armenia, Russia's overall defense posture in the Transcaucasus region will face great pressure.
It is obvious that the United States is taking a stance - in 2008, when the conflict broke out in Georgia, the United States made many empty promises to Georgia.
Armenia is a member state of the Central Security Organization and Russia's backyard, and the United States cannot provide security guarantees for it.
How will Russia respond next?
On September 7th, the press secretary of the Russian President, Peskov, stated that the exercise between Armenia and the United States would not help stabilize the regional situation and strengthen mutual trust. He also emphasized that Russia will continue to fulfill its role as a regional security guarantor.
Military observer Teng Jianqun judged that in the next step, Russia will further strengthen cooperation and exchanges with Armenia, and consolidate its traditional sphere of influence.
Teng Jianqun:
Russia and Armenia have close exchanges in traditional fields. For example, in the field of economy and trade, including the supply of oil and natural gas, Russia is exerting influence. In terms of regional security, Russia will also strengthen its military deployment to ensure its military presence.
Armenia is a traditional ally of Russia and an important gateway for Russia in the Caucasus region. Russia cannot allow the United States to gain control in this region.
