What signal is being released?, Early Reading | CPI Goes Up YoY

Release time:Apr 16, 2024 20:35 PM

Good morning The morning reading of the news is here! On Sunday, September 10, 2023, the 26th day of the seventh lunar month in Shanghai, it will be cloudy. In the afternoon, there will be short-term showers or thunderstorms in some areas, with temperatures ranging from 24 to 31 ℃

Focus on Today

What signals does the year-on-year shift of CPI from decline to increase release?

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, in August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year-on-year from the previous month to an increase of 0.1%; The month on month increase was 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase in prices has turned positive, releasing a signal of economic recovery.

"In August, the consumer market continued to recover, and the supply-demand relationship continued to improve. The month on month increase in CPI slightly expanded, and the year-on-year increase turned from a decrease to an increase," said Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.

In China's CPI basket of goods, food accounts for a relatively high proportion. Statistics show that in August, food prices decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, the same as last month; The month on month decrease of 1% has turned to an increase of 0.5%.

According to Dong Lijuan's analysis, in August, due to factors such as extreme weather in some regions affecting transportation, farmers being reluctant to sell, and central reserve pork collection and storage supporting market confidence, pork prices increased by 11.4% compared to the previous month, which remained unchanged; The egg production rate of laying hens in summer has decreased, coupled with an increase in consumer demand towards the start of school and Mid Autumn Festival. As a result, egg prices have increased by 8.3% compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous month; The supply of fresh fruits is sufficient, and prices have decreased by 4.4% month on month, which is 0.7 percentage points narrower than the previous month.

Pork prices account for a high proportion of food prices. Regarding the future trend of pork prices, Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, stated that it is expected that the overall supply and demand of pork in China will be balanced in the second half of the year, and both supply and demand will increase seasonally. The overall trend of pork prices may show a seasonal rebound.

August is the summer season, and service consumption such as tourism and hotel accommodation continues to recover. Statistics show that service prices increased by 1.3% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; The month on month increase was 0.1%, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively.

According to estimates, in August, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year. "Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase in China's core CPI has been fluctuating in the range of about 1%, indicating that although there is some differentiation in the structure of consumer prices among Chinese residents, they have remained stable overall," said Wang Likun, Deputy Researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Industry insiders analyze that as an important indicator of macroeconomic operation, CPI has shifted from a decrease to an increase year-on-year, indicating that China's policy effects continue to emerge, the economic cycle continues to flow smoothly, the supply and demand relationship has significantly improved, and the driving force for economic recovery has increased.

The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have successively introduced multiple policies to promote consumption in key areas such as home furnishings and automobiles; Hunan has issued 20 measures to restore and expand consumption, and Beijing has issued a new batch of "Jingcai Green" consumption vouchers with a total scale of over 100 million yuan; Key e-commerce platforms such as Meituan Maicai timely increase the supply of seasonal fresh food in response to changes in market demand, allocate manpower according to regional consumer market conditions, and meet the immediate delivery needs of citizens... Recently, all parties have made efforts from both supply and demand sides to promote the recovery of consumer demand and ensure the stable operation of prices.

"In the next stage, as the economy recovers and market demand continues to expand, the supply-demand relationship is expected to gradually improve. In addition, the impact of the high base in the same period last year is gradually eliminated, and the year-on-year increase in CPI will gradually return to a reasonable level." said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

"Overall, despite facing pressure and challenges, there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery and support for high-quality development. The economy is expected to maintain stable operation in the second half of the year, and the quality of development will continue to improve," said Fu Linghui.

Extended reading

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