The three-layer logic needs to be understood!, Don't misread "lower mortgage interest rates"
Recently, everyone knows that mortgage interest rates have dropped, but if asked in detail about how they were lowered, which cities have lowered them, and what impact they will have, many people may be confused. Therefore, some real estate intermediaries and marketing agencies take advantage of the information asymmetry disadvantage of homebuyers, deliberately exaggerate the impact of lower mortgage interest rates on real estate prices, and spread irrational purchasing voices. We should be vigilant and clarify the factual logic.
There are three layers of logic behind the decrease in mortgage interest rates. Firstly, it is important to determine whether the first home interest rate has decreased or the second home interest rate has decreased, which mainly corresponds to the demand for rigid housing and improved housing, respectively. Secondly, understand the pricing mechanism of mortgage interest rates, whether the "policy lower limit" has been lowered or the "additional basis point" has been lowered, which corresponds to the national policy lower limit and the policy lower limit of each city. Thirdly, it is important to examine the implementation of housing credit policies in different cities. Housing credit policies should be tailored to local conditions, rather than "reducing everything at once".
The reduction in mortgage interest rates this time is mainly aimed at second homes, and the demand for improved housing has been further released. The premise of "housing for living, not for speculation" has not changed, and homebuyers do not need to panic excessively. According to the Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing Differentiated Housing Credit Policies released on August 31st, the lower limit of the first home interest rate policy is still "LPR-20 basis points over 5 years", which is 4.0%, and the lower limit of the second home interest rate policy is reduced from "LPR+60 basis points over 5 years" to "LPR+20 basis points over 5 years", which is 4.8% to 4.4%.
The decrease in mortgage interest rates this time is due to the lower limit of national policies, not a one size fits all approach to lowering mortgage interest rates in all cities to the lower limit of national policies. The pricing of mortgage interest rates can be divided into three steps. Firstly, a national policy lower limit is established; Secondly, each city determines its policy lower limit based on its own market supply and demand relationship, with or without adding a base point on the basis of the national policy lower limit; Finally, different banks in the same city can determine their actual interest rates by adding or not adding a basis point to the lower limit of the city's policy. That is to say, although the lower limit of the national first home interest rate policy is 4.0%, the actual executed interest rates vary greatly among cities. For example, some cities meet the conditions for the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first home loan interest rate policy, and their first home interest rate has already been lower than 4.0%; Some cities have strong demand for home purchases, and their first home interest rates remain at a relatively high level of around 4.7%.
The decrease in mortgage interest rates this time has limited impact on first tier hot cities. Although the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market has undergone significant changes, the positioning of "housing for living, not for speculation" has not changed. At present, the interest rates for first and second homes in various first tier hot cities have not significantly decreased. Taking the Beijing area as an example, the interest rates for first and second homes are still "LPR+55 basis points for 5-year and above" and "LPR+105 basis points for 5-year and above", which means the interest rates are 4.75% and 5.25%.
After clarifying the above three layers of logic, let's take a look at the recently highly anticipated issue of "lowering interest rates on existing first-time home loans.". This includes two situations. One is to lower the interest rate for the first home. Please note that the new interest rate is not directly reduced to the current lower limit of the first home interest rate, but is not lower than the lower limit of the first home interest rate in the city where the original loan was issued. At present, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have all released the lower limit of the first home interest rate for different periods in the city. Borrowers can carefully check and make rational judgments. Secondly, after the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy, some second home loans can be converted into first home loans, resulting in a decrease in interest rates. At present, multiple banks have expressed their support for this operation. Starting from September 25th, borrowers can apply to the lending bank.
From this, it can be seen that when analyzing the issue of "lower mortgage interest rates", we should not only consider different regions, but also pay attention to differentiated housing demand. We should not only see the universality, but also the differences. We should not blindly follow the crowd, know the reasons behind it, and not be bound by promotions, panic buying, and other voices, leading to panic and irrational decision-making. Next, various regions should adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not for speculation", implement differentiated housing credit policies according to local conditions, better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Source/Economic Daily, original title "Don't Misread" Lower Loan Interest Rates ""
