It is difficult to achieve it overnight and there are many obstacles! The United States vigorously mediates to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia

Recently, the United States has increased its mediation efforts in the Middle East, attempting to expedite the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that Israel is "closer than ever to reaching a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.".

Analysts point out that the United States has its geopolitical and domestic political considerations in promoting the normalization of Israel Saudi relations. Israel has previously normalized its relations with Middle Eastern Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. If it breaks through its relations with Saudi Arabia, a major Middle Eastern power, it will further change the political landscape in the region. However, establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia still faces numerous obstacles, and it may be difficult to achieve it overnight in the short term.

Calculation by the US side

The United States has recently increased its contacts with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine. According to reports, a senior Israeli diplomatic delegation recently visited the United States to discuss the outline of a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken respectively talked with Israeli and Palestinian leaders on the phone to discuss issues related to the agreement on normalization of Israeli Saudi relations. Brett McGregor, Coordinator for Middle East and North Africa Affairs at the National Security Council of the United States, and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Barbara Lev also visited Saudi Arabia to engage with Saudi and Palestinian sides.

Analysts believe that the United States has been vigorously pushing for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in recent times, primarily due to the "stimulus" of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Joel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Israel National Security Institute, pointed out that the United States recognizes the urgency of restoring its influence in the Middle East and hopes to strengthen its relationship with Middle Eastern allies by promoting the normalization of Israel Saudi relations.

Meanwhile, some analysts have pointed out that the United States is about to hold an election in 2024, and the Biden administration, which has done little in the Middle East, hopes to demonstrate diplomatic achievements and prepare for the election.

In addition, Eyal Pinko, a senior researcher at Israel's Bejing Sadat Strategic Research Center, believes that the United States is also considering its economic interests in re strengthening its relationship with Saudi Arabia, "attempting to regain the lost Saudi market in arms sales.".

Appeal with sand

Currently, six Arab countries have achieved normalization of relations with Israel, including Egypt and Jordan, which established diplomatic relations in the 1970s and 1990s, as well as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, which have achieved normalization of relations under the Trump administration since 2020.

For Israel, achieving normalization of relations with more Arab countries, improving the living environment and development space in the Middle East, has been a strategic goal of previous governments. After normalizing relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Saudi Arabia has become the next goal of the government's efforts. Guzansky believes that if Israel can normalize its relations with Saudi Arabia, it will further change the Middle East landscape and may inspire more Arab countries to follow suit.

In addition, Israel regards Iran as its main rival in the region, and forming an "anti Iran alliance" with Saudi Arabia is also part of Israel's planned "Middle East NATO" with the United States.

From the perspective of Saudi Arabia, the country is currently committed to promoting regional reconciliation and creating a favorable external environment for development. In March this year, Saudi Arabia normalized its relations with Iran, and later supported Syria's return to the League of Arab States and closer relations with Türkiye. If relations with Israel are normalized, it will further improve the regional environment in Saudi Arabia, and also facilitate Saudi Arabia's acquisition of Israel's advanced technology, strengthen cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and better serve Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision.

Obstacles abound

Although Israeli Foreign Minister Koheim expressed optimism about reaching a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, achieving this diplomatic breakthrough still faces numerous obstacles.

In terms of normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia's primary condition is that Israel must make concessions on the Palestinian issue, accept the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Saudi Arabia and other countries in 2002, and recognize the "two-state solution.". Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also hopes that the United States can assist in implementing its civilian nuclear program and selling advanced weapons to it. However, from the current situation, it is very difficult to meet the conditions of the sand side.

On the Palestinian issue, the current Israeli government is composed of right-wing and far right forces, known as the "most right-wing government in history". It has a strong stance on Palestine, does not recognize the Palestinian state, and advocates for the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

For Saudi Arabia, if Israel cannot make concessions on the Palestinian Israeli issue, it will be difficult to respond to domestic anti Israeli public opinion and contradict its identity as a leader in the Islamic world. Saudi political analyst Saad Abdullah Hamid stated that Saudi Arabia believes it has the ability to play a role in resolving the Palestinian Israeli issue and has a "greater obligation" to do so. "The difficulty of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel is currently focused on the Palestinian issue.".

Israel has always hoped to maintain its military advantage in the region on issues such as US exports of weapons to Saudi Arabia, opposes the US selling high-precision weapons to Saudi Arabia, and is concerned that Saudi Arabia will use the civilian nuclear technology it has acquired to manufacture nuclear weapons. Government officials have repeatedly stated that they will not make any concessions that will harm Israel's security in the issue of establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is currently implementing a foreign policy of stabilizing its periphery and maintaining balance among major powers, seeking more partnerships, accelerating its "eastward" pace, and weakening its enthusiasm for the "anti Iran alliance" advocated by the United States and Israel.

Given the above reasons, Hamid believes that the possibility of achieving normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the short term is relatively small.