How will Netanyahu catch the ball kicked by Biden? Second glance | New ceasefire plan in Gaza pending
The new "three-step" ceasefire plan for Gaza recently announced by the United States has triggered heated discussions. On the one hand, President Biden first announced the plan to the outside world in the name of Israel, and it was quickly echoed by many Western allies, which seemed to have become a general trend; on the other hand, although the Israeli wartime cabinet unanimously agreed, the far right strongly rejected it. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also unwilling to be "forced to open business". How will Netanyahu receive Biden's "kick"?
It has been nearly eight months since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out, and the sound of artillery fire in Gaza has not stopped. On the ceasefire issue, the Biden administration in the United States seems to be stepping up pressure on Israel. At the end of May, Biden announced the latest "three-step" Gaza ceasefire plan, covering the three stages of complete ceasefire, troop withdrawal, and reconstruction. However, he was "uncharacteristically" not complacent and took credit for himself. Instead, he emphasized that this "comprehensive new proposal" was proposed by Israel and was "the product of multiple rounds of diplomatic dialogue between the United States and Israel, Qatar, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries."
Immediately afterwards, the positions of various parties on this plan became more subtle. Everyone sticks to their own opinions and talks among themselves, and the truth becomes increasingly blurred. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said that what Biden announced was not a version that Israel fully agreed with. White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby immediately hinted that this was indeed an Israeli proposal, but Biden made it public that the Israeli side did not want to make it public. Israel’s Minister of National Security, Ben Gvir, acted as if he had no prior knowledge, claiming that the plan was “chaotic” and threatening that his party would withdraw from Israel if Netanyahu adopted the plan. ruling coalition. There are reports that the plan was actually proposed by the Biden administration, and Netanyahu "reluctantly accepted it" due to pressure from the war cabinet. Netanyahu's chief foreign policy adviser Falk even revealed the news in an interview, saying that Israel "has accepted" the plan, but at the same time said that "this is not a good agreement and many details need to be finalized." This paved the way for the operational feasibility of the agreement.
Biden's "mouth substitution" operation immediately attracted ridicule. Some people say that Biden's personal announcement of the plan for Israel is nothing more than a political speech. The plan itself is of little significance and may ultimately come to nothing. So, who is Biden talking about? Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Center at Fudan University, said that the first thing is to tell American voters. The general election is approaching, and Biden is in a dilemma of "not being able to please both sides." The Jewish lobby accuses him of not supporting Israel enough, while Arab and Muslim voters criticize him for double-valuing and overly favoring Israel. In order to improve this embarrassing situation, Biden must take measures to "eat both ends". This move must first demonstrate the United States' consistent position as a die-hard ally toward Israel, that is, the United States will always act as Israel's backer, and any ceasefire agreement will ultimately require Israel's nod; on the other hand, it must establish itself as an active mediator, mediator, rescue hostage, and Israeli image of the job to salvage that part of the support base that is losing ground.
The conflict continues to this day, and Biden's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu has been obvious to all. From the past several confrontations, it is not difficult to see that Biden really has no better strategy for a while, but one thing that is clear is that the United States Naturally, the president will not let the Israeli prime minister lead him by the nose. Zhang Chuchu said that this time Biden deliberately wanted to bypass Netanyahu and seek support from the Israeli people. Biden intends to mobilize the Israeli people, especially to sell this plan to Israelis who oppose Netanyahu, and create the impression that "everything is ready for peace talks, all that is needed is Netanyahu's consent", thus forming an impression on them. A kind of public pressure. In the past few days, thousands of Israelis have rallied in Tel Aviv, demanding that the government accept the ceasefire and hostage release agreement announced by the United States, which also shows that Biden's plan is working. In addition, Biden continued to put pressure on public opinion and once again issued severe public criticism, bluntly saying that Netanyahu was "prolonging the Gaza war for his own political interests" and "Israel is making the same mistakes the United States made before." All of this has forced Netanyahu, who has been unwilling to give a cease-fire timetable, to a crossroads of choices.
One phenomenon worth noting is that Palestine has recently experienced a wave of "recognition". Norway, Ireland, Spain, Slovenia and other European countries have successively announced their recognition of the Palestinian state. Currently, more than 140 United Nations member states have recognized it. Experts call on all countries to "must follow" this approach, arguing that it is a prerequisite for lasting peace in Palestine and across the Middle East. Zhang Chuchu said that this sign will make the White House aware that it is worried that the decline of US dominance within the Western alliance system will damage the soft power of the United States. Biden proposed a plan this time in an attempt to seek consensus among the US and Western camps. The United States needs to find allies to endorse its platform and stand on the moral high ground.
Now the question is, Biden has kicked the "ball" to Netanyahu, how will he pick it up? Who will the ball be kicked to next? Zhang Chuchu said that Netanyahu is fully aware that Biden has dug a "hole" for himself - if he opposes it, he will be the culprit in obstructing peace and has once again become the target of public criticism. If he agrees, it is obviously not in line with the strategic goals and will inevitably arouse some far-right parties. Strong dissatisfaction with the forces. Therefore, his response strategy was to "refute the offer" and throw the problem to Hamas. On the one hand, his stance was ambiguous, shouting slogans in favor of peace talks, but repeatedly emphasizing that "many details still need to be discussed," leaving himself room for discussion. On the other hand, the Israeli army has not stopped its attacks on Rafah, insisting on the original negotiation conditions remaining unchanged on key issues such as whether to maintain a long-term ceasefire, and is ready to blame Hamas's unwillingness to cooperate for the deadlock in negotiations.
However, no matter how they appear to be trying to get rid of each other, in fact the tacit understanding between the United States and Israel still exists. Zhang Chuchu said that Biden's pressure and maneuvering have always remained rhetorical and have not taken any real action, using "killer tricks" such as stopping military aid and voting at the United Nations. At the same time, Biden also seems to have already prepared steps and retreat for Netanyahu, which is to let Hamas take responsibility in the end. This also shows that the United States and Israel are fundamentally consistent in their attitudes toward Hamas.
