Is Modi expected to usher in a third term? , Depth | Ruling Alliance Leads in Indian General Elections | Modi | Depth | Ruling Alliance

After about a month and a half, with more than 900 million people voting, the world's largest and longest general election has finally reached its end.

The results of the Indian Lok Sabha election are scheduled to be announced on June 4, local time.

As of press time, vote counting is still in progress. The National Democratic Alliance, led by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, is reported to be leading in most constituencies. According to current trends, the National League for Democracy will obtain more than half of the seats in the People's House and win this election.

If nothing unexpected happens, the 73-year-old Prime Minister Modi is still expected to win re-election and start his third term as prime minister.

Elections to the Lok Sabha are held every five years in India. Among the 543 seats elected through elections, the party or party alliance that wins the majority of seats has the right to form a cabinet. The leader of the majority party will become prime minister.

India's general election has always been the country's most important political agenda, and its results are considered to be related to who will be at the helm of this large South Asian country in the next five years, as well as to the political and economic trends of the region and the world. To some extent, this election is also regarded as India's referendum on "10 years of Modi".

This year’s general election lasted from April 19 to June 1, and was divided into seven stages, lasting 44 days.

During this process, more than 1 million polling stations across the country were working at full capacity. Artificial intelligence has also continued to gain popularity in this year’s general election. AI technology has been widely used in election campaigns. This year’s election was even called India’s first “AI election.”

Overall, the election process, although lengthy, was generally smooth. However, due to extremely hot weather during the final stage of voting, at least 33 election staff in Uttar Pradesh died of heat stroke in one day, and they were accused of insufficient preparation for the election.

According to reports, at 8:00 local time on the 4th, the general election vote counting officially began.

Data released on the website of the Election Commission showed that as of 16:00 local time, the vote counting process was over halfway. The National League for Democracy won in 5 constituencies and maintained the lead in 289 constituencies. According to current trends, the National League for Democracy will obtain more than half of the seats in the People's House and win this election.

If nothing unexpected happens, Modi is still expected to win re-election and start his third term as prime minister.

Lin Minwang, a researcher at Fudan University's South Asia Research Center, pointed out that some core factors played a role in the ruling coalition's lead and Modi's hope of being re-elected.

One is personal factors. Modi’s personal charisma is outstanding, and the opposition parties lack political leaders who can match him.

The second is religious factors. Modi has strengthened Hindu nationalism and exerted great appeal to voters.

The third is governance factors. This includes reforming the governance structure to reduce corruption; bringing the distance between ordinary people and the highest political power closer; and giving people a sense of gain through direct welfare payments and improved infrastructure.

The fourth is strategic factors. Skillfully run the electoral machine, including manipulating public opinion, influencing emotions, and using new technologies such as social media to attract young people.

"In Indian elections, human factors are often more important than policy, economic and other factors." Lin Minwang said.

Lin Minwang said that the impact of Modi’s economic achievements in his 10 years in power seems not to be exaggerated. Firstly, there is currently growth but no employment in India; secondly, the Indian economy has a low starting point and late opening up, making it easy to achieve rapid growth.

Public opinion believes that although Modi’s biggest “signature” is economic development results. For example, India has become the fifth largest economy in the world, with its GDP growing by 8.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year. However, its economic performance is not as eye-catching as advertised, and its development results have not truly benefited the people at the bottom.

For example, farmers' income has stagnated and they have failed to benefit from reforms and economic development, while the agricultural population accounts for 70% of India's 1.4 billion people.

At present, India is still plagued by problems such as inflation, unemployment, polarization between rich and poor, and religious opposition.

At the same time, it is reported that the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, led by the Indian National Congress Party, received better votes than predicted by previous exit polls. It currently wins in 3 constituencies and maintains its lead in 228 constituencies.

This time, the Congress Party teamed up with more than 20 other opposition parties to "form a group" to block Modi's re-election.

"The performance of the opposition camp this time is remarkable, and the number of seats in alliance with the ruling party is very close, which is far better than the last election." Lin Minwang said.

Lin Minwang pointed out that the better-than-expected performance of the opposition parties does not lie in the outstanding actions of the opposition parties in this election. It reflects more that Indian politics is expected to return to the normal state of pluralism and internal checks and balances. The relatively stable two-party system formed from 1999 to 2014 The political form of the party may reappear.

"Whether the Congress Party can regain its glory in the future depends largely on the self-reform and adjustment of this old party."

On June 2, before the election results were announced, Modi could not wait to convene a special meeting to review the "100-day plan" to prepare for the rapid implementation of campaign promises after the start of his third term.

Previously, in his campaign manifesto, Modi made a bright vision: If he is elected prime minister for the third time, he vows to make India the third largest economy in the world and build India into a global manufacturing center by 2030. The centenary of India's independence in 2047 will enable India to join the ranks of developed countries.

He also promised that after the election results are announced, the implementation of the declaration will be started immediately, and future governance will focus on strengthening national security, social and economic development and digital infrastructure construction.

It is widely expected that Modi will still start his third term. The length of time in power will be directly matched by India’s founding Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who served as Prime Minister from 1947 to 1964.

"The core task of Modi's third term is still to promote economic development." Lin Minwang said, but the challenges facing Modi are growing. Because compared to when Modi came to power in 2014 and 2019, India's internal and external environment has changed.

Internally, its promotion of Hindu nationalism has further divided society.

Regionally, the South places emphasis on economics and the North places emphasis on religion, and the division between the North and the South intensifies.

In terms of ethnic groups, due to the suppression of Muslims and other minority groups, conflicts between them and Hindus are intensifying.

Externally, with the rise of protectionism and anti-globalization, the most relaxed international environment that India enjoyed during its rapid rise in the early years is no longer there.

Public opinion also pointed out that how to get out of the dilemma of "growth but no employment", curb inflation, solve problems such as unbalanced development will be difficult tasks before Modi.

Inflation and unemployment are key issues in this election, and they are also powerful levers for the opposition parties to attack the ruling party.

Data show that since November last year, India’s food inflation rate has remained at a high level of more than 8% year-on-year.

According to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, India's unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March.

Data released by the government show that in the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate among the urban population reached 6.7%, and the unemployment rate among those aged 15 to 29 rose to 17%.

Lin Minwang pointed out that a large number of Indian farmers originally worked part-time in cities, but were driven back to the countryside during the epidemic. So far, most farmers have not returned to the city, resulting in a surplus of rural labor and an even greater "volume".

Although India is the fastest growing major economy, its development is uneven. In the future, reforms such as narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas, the gap between rich and poor, increasing farmers' income, and promoting land and labor will also test Modi's governance capabilities. These problems cannot be solved by issuing welfare packages.

In the 10 years since Modi came to power, diplomacy seems to be booming and he has both sides, making India a target of wooing from many parties.

Especially in recent years, Modi has made full use of the competition between major powers to "profit" from it, and has given full play to his diplomatic flexibility and influence.

People have seen that New Delhi seems to have gained both fame and fortune in the Ukraine crisis; it has opened up diplomatic space in the Global South and tried to play a leading role.

What is the direction of Modi’s foreign policy in the future? Can you continue to play with this shrewdness and dexterity?

Lin Minwang predicts that India will most likely continue to be pro-American and alienate China.

However, it will not be one-sided or go against its own interests when dealing with the United States; it will also exercise discretion when dealing with China. Because India is a developing country after all, its diplomacy pursues an "India First" policy and is heavily utilitarian.

"India's siding with the United States and moving closer to the West is not based on ideology or emotional factors, but purely out of utilitarian pursuits. Creating tension in relations with China and being unwilling to meet China halfway on border issues is also using anti-China as a way to mobilize the United States and "A major lever for the West." Lin Minwang said that in this sense, there seems to be no possibility of adjustment in China-India relations in the future. Because out of practical interests, India has no motivation to adjust its relations with China.

However, Lin Minwang pointed out that the specific policy direction will also depend on the personnel arrangements of the new government. If the foreign minister, national security adviser, etc. remain in office, it can be expected that the general direction of foreign policy will not change.

In Lin Minwang's view, India's diplomacy seems to be smooth and multi-party, but due to prioritizing short-term interests rather than long-term strategic advantages, there are hidden dangers in the future.

For example, there are gaps in relations with the United States and the West.

Earlier, India was accused of assassinating a Sikh separatist with dual US and Canadian citizenship, which was condemned by the West.

"The United States and the West have clearly seen Modi's face. They want the right-wing Indian Party to be in power, but they do not want a strong leader like Modi to be in power." Lin Minwang said, which also shows that the strategic mutual trust between the United States and its allies and India still remains. Fragile.

Western public opinion also points out that India will not be the India that the West wants. There are differences in values ​​between the two sides, there is not much overlap in interests, and the space for cooperation will be limited.