Reshape the Middle East? , senior US officials visit Saudi Arabia and Israel
As the war in Gaza continues and the Israeli army is preparing to launch a large-scale ground attack on Rafah, Sullivan, the US President's national security adviser, has visited Saudi Arabia and Israel.
According to military observer Liang Yongchun, the main purpose of Sullivan's successive visits to Saudi Arabia and Israel is to promote the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to reach a tripartite agreement, to promote the "normalization of relations" between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and thereby reshape the pattern of the Middle East.
The Biden administration in the United States believes that the war in Gaza has come to an end. If Saudi Arabia and Israel can establish diplomatic relations, it can promote comprehensive reconciliation between Arab countries in the Middle East and Israel. This will be a major diplomatic achievement for the United States, something that the previous Republican administration failed to achieve. It will give the Democratic Party points for participating in the general election at the end of this year, and at the same time add a break to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Data map: Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed
Liang Yongchun analyzed that the United States faces many challenges if it wants to bring together Saudi Arabia and Israel to make a "big deal."
The first is the Palestinian issue. The blood stains in Gaza have not yet been wiped dry, and the United States wants Arab countries to comply with American interests. This is not easy to do.
The second challenge comes from Saudi Arabia. The United States drew a big pie for Saudi Arabia, promising to provide it with a large amount of cutting-edge weapons assistance and nuclear technology, and promising to support the "two-state solution" between Palestine and Israel. However, the Biden administration will only be in office until the end of this year, and Saudi Arabia will not work for the United States for a blank check.
The third challenge comes from Israel. Israel firmly opposes the "two-state solution" between Palestine and Israel and firmly opposes the United States providing cutting-edge weapons, especially nuclear technology, to Saudi Arabia. Now, the United States and Saudi Arabia are having heated talks, and the "semi-finalized draft" they negotiated will probably turn into a piece of waste paper when it reaches Israel.
As Sullivan participated in the Middle East mediation, the International Criminal Court prosecutor said that he had applied for arrest warrants for the Israeli Prime Minister, Defense Minister and senior Hamas officials on suspicion of war crimes.
Liang Yongchun believes that this will not have an impact on the United States’ Palestine-Israel policy.
The arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court is not mandatory. The United States has always used the International Criminal Court when it is beneficial and abandoned it when it is not beneficial. This time, the United States ignored its arrest warrant. After Sullivan ends his trip to the Middle East, the United States will immediately "give the green light" to Israel's full-scale attack on Rafah.
On May 18, local time, Israeli tanks drove in the Gaza Strip
Liang Yongchun also pointed out that the United States has long adhered to the wrong position on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and that the term of US President Biden is about to end. At present, the United States is simply unable to come up with an effective Middle East peace plan.
In fact, the United States hopes that Israel will capture Rafah as soon as possible and eliminate Hamas forces. From the perspective of the United States, only by letting the war in Gaza end as soon as possible and letting the negative impact of the war pass as soon as possible can the United States have the opportunity to reshape the political structure of the Middle East according to its own wishes.
It must take into account partisan self-interest and strategically favor Israel, which determines that the U.S. government cannot come up with a fair and reasonable Middle East peace plan.
The comprehensive national strength of the United States is significantly declining, and it is still engaged in "big power competition." This means that its investment in strategic resources in the Middle East is not enough, and it is difficult to suppress the "princes" of all parties. The "Middle East Grand Deal" proposed by the United States will be short-lived.
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