How many people does Zhejiang really want? How many people can still be accommodated? Transfer | Population | Install

On July 22, the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Implementation of the Basic Public Service System in Permanent Residences and Orderly Promoting the Citizenization of Agricultural Transfer Population in Zhejiang Province was implemented, with a validity period of 5 years. The plan clearly states that Zhejiang Province will completely cancel the household registration restrictions, and further relax the conditions for agricultural transfer population to settle down. Last year, Zhejiang ranked first among the 31 provinces in China with an increase of 370000 permanent residents. Why does Zhejiang still announce the complete lifting of household registration restrictions at the provincial level? "The cancellation of household registration restrictions this time is not a sudden idea, but is in line with the policies that have been introduced." Li Yang, an assistant researcher at the Research Institute of Zhejiang Provincial Development and Planning Institute, introduced that in 2021, the "14th Five Year Plan" of Zhejiang Province proposed to "comprehensively cancel the household registration restrictions in cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million in urban areas, and promote the basic cancellation of household registration restrictions in cities with a permanent population of more than 3 million in urban areas."; In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "14th Five Year Plan for the Implementation of New Urbanization", which clearly relaxed the conditions for settling in Type I large cities with a permanent population of 3 to 5 million in urban areas. Specifically, as of the end of 2021, the urban permanent population of Hangzhou alone was over 5 million, making it one of the mega cities. This is an important reason why the urban area of Hangzhou has not opened up for household registration. "Development" is the keyword of the "Plan". Mi Hong, Director of the Population Big Data and Policy Simulation Research Base at the School of Public Administration of Zhejiang University and Dean of the "One Old and One Small" Development Research Institute at Ningbo University of Engineering, stated that Zhejiang has made good attempts to promote high-quality population development and industrial upgrading through household registration policies, and the subsequent impact of policies still needs close attention. In order to achieve high-quality development, Zeng Gang, Dean of the Urban Development Research Institute of East China Normal University, stated that the focus of the "Plan" is not only on the first glance of "talent competition" targeting populations outside the province, but more importantly, from the perspective of common prosperity, promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population within the province and promoting the equalization of basic public services. Regarding the agricultural transfer population, Zhejiang's "Plan" is seeking to "compete for talent" outside the province and "civilize" within the province, which constitute two logical lines for understanding the "Plan".

Keep more people behind

Relaxing and relaxing household registration restrictions is the trend. Looking at the Yangtze River Delta, currently, apart from Hangzhou, only cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, and Suzhou have household registration restrictions, but they are all gradually relaxing their requirements year by year. The adjustment of household registration policies in Zhejiang is a gradual change, but this policy has a wider scope and greater intensity of implementation. Mi Hong said that in recent years, the local registered residence population in Zhejiang has always been negative growth, and the fertility rate of local people is not high; At the same time, with the transfer of industries to the central and western regions, there has been a wave of migrant workers returning. In this context, Zhejiang hopes to retain more people through adjustments to household registration policies. But Mi Hong believes that after the relaxation of household registration, there may be a small wave of household registration, but it will not cause an explosive surge, let alone a sudden increase in social public service pressure. This statement has been previously confirmed by Wang Ping's research. In 2021, Wang Ping, an associate professor at the Anhui Provincial Research Center for Migrant Workers and Fuyang Normal University, interviewed 12 Anhui migrant workers working in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, of whom only 2 had their household registration moved out of their hometown in Anhui. The vast majority of people do not want to move away. The main factor is not the registered residence system. Some people consider returning to their hometown for pension, but the more common reason is the income level and economic conditions. "A person working outside has limited expenses in all aspects. If they settle down, they may have to move their entire family to the city, requiring larger housing and higher living costs." In Li Yang's view, the unified regulations at the provincial level in Zhejiang province are a shot in the arm to improve the household registration policies in other cities in Zhejiang province, and also provide peace of mind for migrant populations who are interested in striving for entrepreneurship and settling down in Zhejiang. Regarding the statement that "attracting people to buy houses in Zhejiang", Mi Hong stated that the relaxation of household registration may have boosted the current real estate market, but solving the housing problem for more talents still requires supporting policies such as public rental housing and affordable housing. Zeng Gang reminded that the liberalization of registered residence cannot be achieved overnight, but should be carried out step by step. Otherwise, it will easily lead to the problem that supporting services cannot keep up. For example, slums in foreign countries are typical examples. At the same time, public service resources previously tied to household registration are gradually being unbound. Wang Ping observed that after the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the new rural cooperative medical system in Anhui can also be used in hospitals in Zhejiang cities, achieving cross regional settlement; With the further relaxation of policies, the issue of children's education has gradually been decoupled from household registration. If there are available degrees in the local area, renting a house can also lead to enrollment.

Let more people "enter the city"

The more important focus of the plan is to promote the migration of agricultural population into cities and households within the province. Many experts have expressed that there is indeed an objective situation regarding the view that rural people in Zhejiang do not want to settle in cities. According to the analysis of Mi Hong, the reason is that many agricultural household registrations are closely related to their natural resources such as agricultural land and forestry, which attach considerable and stable economic value. Zeng Gang also believes that to a certain extent, rural household registration in Zhejiang is more expensive than urban household registration. Many farmers are reluctant to part with rural household registration because it is based on real benefits such as land rent and collective enterprise dividends. In order to solve the troubles faced by farmers in the process of "urbanization", the "Plan" proposes to "protect the rural land contracting rights, homestead use rights, and collective income distribution rights of farmers who settle in cities in accordance with the law, and shall not use the withdrawal of these rights as a condition for farmers to settle in cities." In the past decade, many areas in Zhejiang have actively explored how to better expand public services to cover the permanent population. Li Yang gave an example that Jinhua City, which governs Yiwu and Dongyang, has fully lifted the restrictions on urban household registration since 2020. In urban areas, property owners, renters, and legally stable employees can all settle down. The Plan further clarifies this policy direction. At the same time, "no work, no wealth" is the basic logic of economic development, and the non-agricultural development of Zhejiang is natural. This is beneficial for Zhejiang to take the lead in exploring experience at the provincial level for the whole country, and better promote the construction of demonstration zones for common prosperity.