Why have there been frequent coups in Africa in recent years? The anti-terrorism situation makes the military a "rare commodity"

After Bongo and his son ruled continuously for 56 years, Gabon, a Central African country, experienced an overnight transformation.

On the early morning of August 30th local time, after Gabonese President Ali Bongo declared victory in his third presidential election, the "Institutional Transition and Restoration Committee" composed of Gabonese soldiers declared the election invalid and had taken power. Bango was placed under house arrest, and his son and several high-ranking officials from the presidential palace were arrested.

The next afternoon, the Institutional Transition and Restoration Committee announced that its chairman and coup leader, Brice Oliji Nguema, will be sworn in as the transitional leader at the Presidential Palace on Monday, September 4th.

At this moment, the tense situation caused by the Niger coup at the end of July has not yet eased, and Gabon has experienced another sudden coup. Why are African countries experiencing continuous coups?

Internal power struggles or main causes within the family

In June 2009, Gabonese President Omar Bongo, who had been in power for 42 years, passed away in Spain. In August, Ali Bongo, son of Omar Bongo, won the new presidential election, continuing Gabon's "Bongo era".

Who is Bryce Olivier Nguema? Agence France Presse reported that the current commander of the Gabonese Republic Guard, Nguema, is 48 years old and has relatives with the Bongo family. Nguema served Old Bongo during his late years in power, and after his death, he was "exiled" to serve as a military officer in foreign embassies for 10 years. In April 2020, Nguema took over as the commander of the Republican Guard and had significant influence in the military.

"Ali Bongo had difficulty moving and lost some language function after suffering a stroke. Currently, the government is mainly controlled by his wife and son, Nurdin Bongo. His wife is French and has been helping French companies, but Nurdin Bongo's lack of ability has caused dissatisfaction in the military. Nguema has known Ali Bongo since childhood and was trained by him. In recent years, he has returned to his home country and has gained more power, leading to conflicts with Nurdin Bongo's faction." Wang Hongyi, a researcher at the Security Research Office of the West Asia and Africa Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a client reporter of Beijing Daily that the Bongo family has been in power for more than half a century, and this coup is mainly due to internal power struggles. ". "Nguema was worried about being 'cleansed', so he launched a coup within four to five hours after the election results were announced."

The statements of the Western camp are thought-provoking

Gabon is located in central Africa, with an area of 268000 square kilometers and a population of 2.22 million. With a vast territory and sparse population, it is one of the countries with the lowest population density. Gabon is rich in oil and mineral resources. According to World Bank data, Gabon's per capita gross domestic product in 2022 reached $8820.3, ranking among the top African countries. Last year, Gabon's economy grew by 3%.

However, even with impressive economic data, Gabon still has a wealth gap, with about 40% of the population living below the poverty line and an unemployment rate of 21.5%.

Zhu Ming, Director of the Regional Cooperation Department of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told a Beijing Daily client reporter that the occurrence of this coup was both accidental and inevitable. After Ali Bongo was elected president twice, Gabon experienced riots due to the opposition's refusal to recognize the election results. Bongo and his son have been in power for a long time, and the country's wealth is highly concentrated in the hands of their families. The common people have not benefited much, and they have accumulated a lot of dissatisfaction, but it is unclear when it will erupt. Zhu Ming believes that the nature of the Bango regime determines that its governing foundation is relatively fragile.

"Ali Bongo and his family's governance can be considered a failure, with severe corruption and problems in Gabon." Wang Hongyi said that the coup led by Nguema also took advantage of Gabon's dissatisfaction with Bongo and the opposition party's boycott of the 2023 coalition's election results.

It is worth noting that, unlike the intense reaction during the previous Niger coup, the Western camp's stance on the Gabonese coup is intriguing. On August 31, EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Borrelli, said that the coup in Gabon cannot be compared to the Niger crisis. Gabonese military officers intervened only after Bongo won "unfair elections", and "Gabon's elections were full of irregularities.".

Wang Hongyi believes that currently, the likelihood of Gabon's coup being successful is high. France's attitude towards the coup in Gabon is very subtle, and the coup soldiers did not point their finger at France.

Counter terrorism makes the African military a "rare commodity"

UN Secretary General Guterres also spoke out. On August 31st, he stated that the recent series of military coups in Africa highlights the importance of lasting democratic governance and the guarantee of the rule of law. A military coup cannot solve the problem, it will only exacerbate the crisis.

According to an article in the Spanish newspaper "Confidential", Gabon is the sixth country in sub Saharan Africa to experience a military coup since 2021, following Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Sudan, and Niger.

"The continuous coups in African countries are not only due to internal factors of the political system, but also the impact of the epidemic on the economy and people's livelihoods, as well as the anti-terrorism situation." Zhu Ming said that West African countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso are at the forefront of anti-terrorism in Africa, and the need for anti-terrorism has made their armies "scarce", receiving a large amount of resources from Western countries, and their ambitions have also expanded accordingly. In addition to the military, the rapid growth of the Russian Wagner Group's strength in Africa is also a typical example.

The article in the Confidential Daily pointed out that although the Gabonese coup did not have a clear anti French nature, it was still another setback for France on the African continent. As the most influential foreign force on the African continent in decades, France's influence in Africa continues to decline.

Zhu Ming pointed out that the decline of French power in Africa did not begin with a series of military coups in recent years, but rather with a continuous process since the beginning of this century. France's comprehensive national strength itself is in a slow decline process. France's diplomacy used to be independent, but in recent years it has frequently relied on the power of the European Union and the United States, not only in Africa but also globally.