Why did Ukraine's "number one military commander" suddenly change personnel?

·Nominated Umerov and dismissed Leznikov.

This important personnel change in the Ukrainian side,

It is also an indicator for people to observe the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Author: Mao Yufei

On September 3rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky suddenly released a video stating that he had "fired" Ukrainian Defense Minister Leznikov.

Zelensky believed that 550 days after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, "the Ministry of Defense needs new methods and new forms to interact with the army and the whole society". He suggested that the current head of Ukraine's State Property Fund, Umerov, take over as Minister of Defense.

If Leznikov officially steps down, it will be the most significant restructuring of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense since the escalation of the Russia Ukraine crisis.

Resignation, Defense Minister Strong in English

Since the beginning of this year, the claim that Leznikov was "withdrawn" has been widely circulated.

In February, Ukrainian media reported that Budanov, the Director of the Intelligence Department of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, will replace Leznikov as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. "No one has talked to me about suspension," Leznikov said in an interview. On August 19th, Leznikov suddenly stated that he was ready to resign. He emphasized, "I am not someone who wants to be a government official for a lifetime. I have no political ambitions."

·Leznikov.

At the age of 57, Leznikov has a rich resume. He was born in Lviv in 1966, when the city was still part of Russia, one of the Soviet republics. Leznikov served in the Soviet Air Force. In 1991, he graduated with excellent grades from Lviv University and obtained a Master's degree in Law. During his university years, Leznikov represented Ukraine in the All Soviet Law Student Olympic Games.

After graduation, Leznikov successively founded a securities brokerage firm and a law firm. In his career as a lawyer, the most brilliant achievement was defending then presidential candidate Yushchenko in the Supreme Court of Ukraine. From 2005 to 2010, Yushchenko served as the President of Ukraine.

In 2014, Leznikov was appointed as the Secretary of the Kiev City Council and later served as the Vice Chairman of the Anti Corruption Committee. In November 2021, Zelensky appointed Leznikov, who was not an expert in the military, as the Minister of Defense.

According to Western media reports, as the wartime defense minister, Leznikov strengthened his relationship with Western defense officials and played an important role in helping Ukraine obtain massive Western military aid. According to reports, Leznikov has established "strong personal relationships" with defense ministers and military officials from Western countries through his fluent English.

·Leznikov and Zelensky.

Why has Leznikov, who has made remarkable achievements in obtaining military aid, been dismissed from his position now?

Russian and Ukrainian media generally believe that the first reason is that the Ukrainian military's achievements are far from being as "brilliant" as expected, and as the defense minister, Leznikov cannot shirk his responsibility; The second and more important point is that it is likely related to the corruption issues that have been continuously exposed by the Ukrainian military since the beginning of this year.

Since January this year, multiple corruption cases have been exposed in Ukraine, with the prices of procurement contracts for Ukrainian military supplies, uniforms, and other items being one to two times higher than the market price. Even the construction funds for Ukrainian military barracks have been embezzled. Even worse, the Ukrainian conscription bribery scandal continues to ferment. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rich Ukrainians escaped military service by bribery, while poor Ukrainians were "captured as able-bodied men" on the streets.

The issue of corruption in Ukraine has a long history. When Zelensky participated in the election, anti-corruption was his loudest campaign slogan. After he took office, the problem of corruption was not solved, but instead intensified, which left Ukrainians extremely disappointed. In some Western media reports, Leznikov is hailed as the "number one military expert"; But in the hearts of many Ukrainians, he has already lost his reputation. According to Ukrainian media reports, Zelensky had previously intended to use him as a tool to combat corruption.

As for Leznikov's whereabouts after his resignation, a Ukrainian legislator has hinted that he may become the next Ukrainian ambassador to the UK.

Does the incoming defense chief know how to negotiate?

Zelensky appointed Umelov, the current head of the Ukrainian National Property Fund, as the new Ukrainian Defense Minister. In a video speech on September 3rd, Zelensky mentioned Umerov saying, "The Ukrainian Supreme Rada is already very familiar with this person, and he doesn't need any additional introduction."

·Umerov.

Umerov is a Tatar, a Sunni Muslim whose ancestors have lived in the Crimean Peninsula. In May 1944, due to religious differences, the Tatars were forced to leave Crimea and were expelled to Central Asia, including Umerov's ancestors.

In 1982, Umerov was born in Uzbekistan, one of the Soviet republics. He later wrote in an article, "The expulsion of Crimean Tatars is one of the greatest crimes."

In the late 1980s, Tatars were allowed to return to the Crimean Peninsula. Over the next decade, over 200000 Crimean Tatars gradually returned. In 1988, 6-year-old Umelov finally returned to his hometown with his family. Umerov's parents were both engineers, and he later studied at the National School of Management at Kiev University, majoring in finance and credit.

·Umerov.

Umerov, who had been living in a foreign land during his childhood, later made it his career to uphold the rights of the Crimean Tatars. In 2007, he participated in the establishment of the Crimean Tatar Parliament, and in 2011, he founded the Crimean Development Foundation. In 2012, his family funded a project to repair the mosque. According to analysis, Zelensky nominated Umerov as the defense minister to demonstrate his determination to "recapture Crimea.".

In Ukrainian politics, Umerov served as a member of the "Voice of Voters" party. In 2020, he joined the working group of the Ukrainian National Security and National Defense Commission. Two years later, in February, the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. As the Ukrainian side, Umerov participated in several stages of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and played an important role in the Russia Ukraine food agreement, prisoner exchange, and peace negotiations.

According to foreign media reports, Ukrainian First Lady Zelenskaya was accompanied by "negotiation expert" Umerov during her visits to the United Arab Emirates in March 2023 and Saudi Arabia in May 2023. Umerov also expressed to the media his determination to "find political and diplomatic solutions for this brutal war.".

Starting from September 2022, Umerov served as the National Property Fund of Ukraine. According to reports, he participated throughout the negotiations for the acquisition of high-quality state-owned assets from Ukraine by the BlackRock Group in the United States. Umerov's performance in this position was praised by Zelensky.

Some people have linked Umerov's "dazzling performance" to his experience before entering politics. After graduation, Umerov joined a communication company in Ukraine and became a manager. In 2013, at the age of 31, Umerov received funding support from Stanford University's "New Leaders of Ukraine" program and became a co-founder of the foundation invested by the company.

A pure pro American faction?

Regarding Leznikov's dismissal, a spokesperson for the US Pentagon refused to comment, stating that it was an internal matter in Ukraine. The Associated Press reported that US President Biden told reporters in Delaware on September 3 that he had learned of Zelensky's replacement of Ukraine's defense minister. When asked if there were any comments on this matter, Biden replied that he would not make it public.

·Leznikov and Zelensky.

According to regulations, Zelensky's nomination for Umerov will be submitted for parliamentary review.

In this dismissal and nomination, there are two intriguing backgrounds: firstly, the US military aid to Ukraine has exceeded $40 billion, and more and more Americans do not support military aid to Ukraine. Since Russia convened more troops earlier this year, various factions in the United States have been fiercely debating the issue of war escalation. Corruption in the Ukrainian political arena is one of the reasons for opposing military aid. On August 19th, the Russian newspaper "Guardian" published an article stating that against the backdrop of stagnant counterattacks and heavy losses of personnel and equipment, the Ukrainian leadership hopes to gain more trust from the West through anti-corruption efforts. Leznikov's previous statement may pave the way for his possible resignation and high-level anti-corruption efforts.

Another background is that Leznikov is referred to by Russian media as the "only pro British faction" around Zelensky. After Leznikov was replaced, if Umerov, who is considered to have a pro American background, can successfully take over as Ukrainian defense minister, Zelensky will be surrounded by all the pro American factions. This important personnel change in Ukraine is also an indicator for people to observe the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.