Jin Yinan: It means "nothing causes trouble", Australia causing trouble in the South China Sea

On August 25th, Australia and the Philippines held their first large-scale joint military exercise by sea, land, and air in the South China Sea. In addition to this military exercise, according to the Associated Press, the United States, Japan, and Australia have also recently held joint exercises in the South China Sea. So, what are the intentions behind Australia and the Philippines holding high-profile South China Sea military exercises? What impact will the United States have on peace and security in the South China Sea region as it continuously attracts allies and uses exercises to intervene in the regional situation? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.

Data image: Australian Navy's Canberra class amphibious assault ship

Li Yue:

Firstly, let's focus on the recently concluded Australia Philippines joint exercise.Philippine President Marcos said during the observation exercise that this is an important example of the close cooperation between the Philippines and Australia. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mars stated that Australia and the Philippines plan to conduct their first joint patrol in the South China Sea. Professor Yi Nan, as a country outside the South China Sea, why is Australia actively involved in South China Sea affairs and what kind of signal has Australia and the Philippines sent to the outside world during their first "island seizure" exercise in the South China Sea?

Jin Yinan: We can bluntly say that Australia has always been a "troublemaker". Its geographical location is very close to Asia, but it always feels that Asian countries do not take it too seriously, so Australia particularly likes to intervene in regional conflicts to demonstrate its regional influence. For example, it was involved to varying degrees in the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Afghanistan War, and even the Iraq War.

In fact, Australia does not have the ability to intervene in regional conflicts. The size of the Australian armed forces is less than 100000 people, and its combined land, sea, and air forces are only about 70-80000 people, with a smaller navy. Like the Philippines, Australia's maritime power is very limited. Even so, Australia and the Philippines still need to conduct island grabbing exercises in the South China Sea, even acting as regional troublemakers, because they feel backed by the United States. So I think that holding joint exercises between Australia and the Philippines in the South China Sea is actually like a farce. When they join forces to conduct so-called joint patrols and exercises, they cannot afford to cause too much turbulence in the South China Sea.

In fact, Australia and the Philippines also understand this, but their main purpose is to stir up trouble and stir up trouble, hoping to bring in foreign countries such as the United States, Japan, and even India to seek their own interests.

Li Yue:

We particularly note that Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mars stated during the military exercise that Australia has "security interests" in the South China Sea, and most of Australia's trade activities pass through the South China Sea. Therefore, maintaining international rules is a "common strategic interest" with the Philippines.

Jin Yinan: Mars' claim that Australia has "security interests" in the South China Sea is just a parrot's tale. Because Americans say he has interests in the South China Sea, and Australians also say he has "security interests" in the South China Sea. What are the "South China Sea interests" in the US population? Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once said that the shipping volume in the South China Sea accounts for more than 40% of the total global shipping volume, but this does not mean that any goods transported through the South China Sea to your country indicate that that country has significant interests in the South China Sea. China's cargo ships are spread all over the world, and we cannot say that we have significant interests worldwide. Australia has some goods transported through the South China Sea, but the quantity is very limited. If we only rely on this point to say that it has significant interests in the South China Sea, it should be said that the reason is extremely far fetched, which is completely in the tone of imperialism. And in terms of strength, Australia is not qualified to say such words because it lacks strength. Mars' argument is just a farfetched excuse to cover up ambitions that are completely disproportionate to Australia's national and military strength.

Li Yue:

Some comments say that since the beginning of this year, the direction in the South China Sea has been quite unstable. In addition to the Australia Philippines joint exercise mentioned earlier, the United States has also gathered a group of allies to constantly stir up trouble and stir up trouble in the South China Sea. In April, the United States and the Philippines launched an 18 day "shoulder to shoulder" joint military exercise with over 17000 military personnel. In June, the United States Coast Guard, the Japan Coast Guard, and the Philippine Coast Guard held their first joint exercise in the waters near the province of Phibatan. Recently, the United States, Japan, and Australia announced that they will hold joint exercises in the South China Sea in the near future. Professor Yinan, how should we view the frequent military actions by the United States to attract allies to cause trouble in the South China Sea?

Jin Yinan: The United States has two attempts to gather allies and disrupt the South China Sea. One is to form a so-called deterrence against its "opponents"; In addition, we want to test the obedience and cooperation of our allies, and determine if they have enough ability to advance to the front line of confrontation with their opponents in the event of future events. Simply put, it is both to deter opponents and to train one's own team.

We are accustomed to frequent military exercises organized by the United States. How can the United States effectively control various forces without organizing military exercises? This control is not only about controlling a certain region or hostile countries, but also includes controlling allies, which is the appetite and ambition of the United States.

The weapons and equipment sent by the United States, Japan, and Australia to participate in the exercise this time are mainly amphibious attack ships, which seem to be preparing for amphibious combat missions. However, it is impossible for them to achieve their ambition to fully intervene in South China Sea affairs through just one exercise. It can only be said that they have demonstrated their intention to intervene in the South China Sea. Let's not forget that in 2016, Comrade Dai Bingguo, who was then the Director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Foreign Affairs, said during his visit to the United States, "Even if there are 10 aircraft carrier formations in the South China Sea, we are not afraid.". Now 7 years have passed, and the balance of power among all parties has already changed. It is ridiculous that the United States, Japan, and Australia want to scare China with three amphibious attack ships.

Li Yue:

According to previous reports, in this trilateral exercise between the United States, Japan, and Australia, the United States will send the amphibious assault ship "America", the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force will send the frigate "Izumo", and Australia will send the amphibious assault ship "Canberra" to participate in the exercise, specifically implementing training for carrier based aircraft to take off and land on each other's decks. However, it is worth pondering that the Philippines, which had originally planned to participate in the exercise, chose to withdraw before the exercise began, citing that other countries' carrier based aircraft were too large and the Philippine warship deck could not accommodate more military aircraft. Regarding the statement made by the Philippines, some netizens commented that the Philippine President Marcos administration "stepped on the brakes" at this time to continue seeking some balance between China and the United States; Some netizens also believe that Marcos had previously called for the acceleration and finalization of the "South China Sea Code of Conduct" to avoid escalating tensions, which has released goodwill in resolving disputes with China. Professor Yinan, what do you think the Philippines' temporary withdrawal from the US, Japan, and Australia military exercises is due to?

Jin Yinan: The Philippines also knows that the previous issue on Ren'ai Reef was playing with fire. It is very clear in its heart that once it has been played, the Philippines cannot bear the consequences and responsibilities caused by it. However, the United States, Japan and Australia are now trying to make use of this to stir up trouble, instigating the Philippines to have friction with China in the South China Sea, just as the United States and the West "arch fire" Russia-Ukraine conflict, which finally puts Ukraine into a predicament and is beaten to pieces. So it is precisely with this in mind that the Philippines has now chosen to stop at a moderate level. Because the Philippines knows that bringing the United States, Japan, and Australia to the South China Sea region may not necessarily be a good thing for the Philippines. So it is now withdrawing from joint military exercises with the United States, Japan, and Australia for a grand reason, in order to avoid further friction with China and offend China.