Declare the strategic failure of France over the past 10 years, Niger coup region | Niger | Strategy

After several days of stalemate between the Western Community and the Niger coup military, there have finally been some signs of easing in the Niger crisis. The Nigerian religious delegation arrived in Niger on August 12 to carry out mediation tasks and met with Niger's coup leader Chiani and Prime Minister Zene appointed by the military government. According to a report by the Nigerian newspaper Pioneer on the 13th, Chiani has agreed to engage in dialogue with the Western Community after the talks and expressed "willingness to explore" diplomatic and peaceful ways to resolve the issue.

On August 10th, leaders of the Western Community held an emergency meeting in the Nigerian capital Abuja, announcing the immediate activation of regional standing forces to respond to the Niger crisis. Shen Jizhong

The military conference for the assembly of standing forces announced by the Western Community has been indefinitely postponed due to technical reasons. On the evening of the 13th, Niger's coup soldiers issued a statement that they will prosecute detained President Bazum on charges of treason and disrupting internal and external security in Niger.

Compared to the coups in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso in previous years, Western countries such as France and the United States, as well as the Western Community, are particularly concerned about the Niger coup and have responded strongly. Li Wentao, Executive Director of the Africa Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, told a Beijing Daily client reporter that the coup in Niger, which is regarded by the West as the last "oasis of peace" in the Sahel region of Africa, has raised strong concerns among Western countries and the Western Community that the coup may trigger a "domino effect" in the region. For France, which has long intervened in the Sahel region, the Niger coup also marked the failure of France's security strategy in this region over the past decade.

Only Nigeria can send troops

On July 30th, the Western Community issued an ultimatum for military intervention to the Nigerian coup soldiers. But as the ultimatum expired on August 6th, the Western Community did not take military action against Niger, but instead stated that it would continue to attempt a "diplomatic solution.".

On August 10th, Niger's coup soldiers announced the establishment of a new government. On the same day, the leaders of the Western Community announced at an emergency meeting held in the Nigerian capital Abuja the immediate activation of regional standing forces to respond to the Niger crisis. However, the meeting of military leaders of the member states of the Western Community, originally scheduled to be held in Accra, the capital of Ghana on the 12th, has been indefinitely postponed due to technical reasons. Sources have revealed that this meeting was originally intended to inform the leaders of member states of the Western European Community of the "best option" for launching and deploying regional standing forces.

One of the leaders of the Niger coup, Tumba, spoke to supporters on the streets of Niamey.

The Associated Press reported that at present, only Nigeria, a member state of the Western Community, can send troops, and other countries cannot immediately take action.

"The current willingness and ability of the Western Community to send troops are insufficient. Nigeria is a core power of the Western Community, but there is serious disagreement within Nigeria regarding the issue of sending troops to Niger." Li Wentao said that Nigeria's concern is that sending troops will burden itself with all military and resource costs, and there is even greater concern that if Niger enters a state of civil war, the spread of chaos will threaten Nigeria's security.

The Vanguard newspaper cited comments from former Nigerian politicians, stating that due to the strategic value of Niger's uranium mines being a concern of major powers such as Russia and the United States, if the Niger coup cannot be properly handled, it may escalate into a "Third World War".

This judgment is obviously somewhat alarmist. However, Li Wentao pointed out that the possibility of conflict arising from the situation in Niger in the future is still high and further observation is needed. There are still a large number of forces supporting Bazum in Nepal; Western countries also "do not withdraw their troops", leaving behind a backup; Despite the slow progress, the Western Community has not abandoned its intention of military intervention in the situation in Nepal.

The Niger coup has had a huge psychological impact on the West

To mediate the situation in Niger, Acting Deputy Secretary of State Newland visited the Nigerian capital Niamey on August 7th. However, Newland did not see the coup leader Chiani and was only allowed to have phone conversations with Bazum. According to US media reports, Newland attempted to blackmail the coup military by disrupting bilateral relations and refusing to provide billions of dollars in economic aid, but it was unsuccessful.

On August 12th, EU Foreign and Security Policy High Representative Borrell issued a statement stating that the EU is ready to impose personal sanctions on Niger to support the efforts of the Western Community to "restore democracy" in the country. Borelli said that the EU is "preparing" for the Western Community's military intervention in Niger, but also supports the search for a peaceful solution.

As neighboring countries of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso oppose military intervention in Nepal, and the two countries have experienced military coups in 2021 and 2022 respectively. After the coup in Malaysia and Burkina Faso, the Western Community demanded that the coup military restore constitutional order and suspend the membership of both countries as members of the Western Community, but did not intervene militarily.

Why did the frequent military coups in the Sahel region of Africa, the Niger coup, provoke a fierce reaction from Western countries and the Western Community? Li Wentao pointed out that Niger is the last "oasis of peace" in the eyes of Western countries in the Sahel region, and also the most important military strategic pivot of the West. Although Niger's development level is lagging behind, in the eyes of the West and the Western Community, Nepal has previously had a stable political situation and has also shown positive performance in counter-terrorism. They have high expectations for Niger. Compared to the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which were already in a fragile state of anarchy, the psychological impact of the Niger coup on the West and the Western Community is enormous, raising strong concerns that the coup may trigger a "domino effect" in the region.

The Western Community has a precedent for military intervention in member states. In early 2017, the Western Community intervened militarily in the Gambia and transferred power to Barro, who was elected president at the end of last year. At the beginning of 2022, the Western Community dispatched stabilization forces to Guinea Bissau, where an attempted coup occurred.

"Although the Western Community has a clear tendency to intervene in non constitutional regime changes such as coups in member countries, due to limited military and material resources, as well as the inherent security issues within the core power Nigeria, the military intervention plan of the Western Community has been rarely implemented," said Li Wentao.

France's security strategy in the Sahel region has declared failure

On August 11th, thousands of military supporters of the Niger coup gathered near a French military base in the suburbs of Niamey, shouting "Down with France, down with the Western Community" in protest against the decision of the Western Community to launch a regional standing force in response to the situation in Nepal.

Supporters of the Niger coup are demonstrating near a French military base.

France still deploys 1500 soldiers, as well as drones and fighter jets in Niger. French Foreign Minister Cologne recently met with Prime Minister Mohamed du of the Nigerian government who was stranded in Europe, stating that France "strongly supports" the efforts of the Western Community to "thwart the coup in Niger," and that the military intervention threat issued by the Western Community should be seriously considered.

France is a former colonial power of 20 African countries and has been striving to maintain its strong influence on the African continent for decades. According to an article published by the Financial Times on the 10th, France has been wandering in Africa "like a ghost", but a series of actions have led to an escalating anti French sentiment. With the collapse of the civil government of Niger, the last ally, Niger has become a French cemetery in the Sahel.

Li Wentao said that in recent years, France has invested the largest scale of anti-terrorism efforts in the Sahel region, but the anti-terrorism situation of regional countries has not improved, but has instead fallen into a state of "increasingly anti terrorist". The number of terrorist organizations and the number of deaths caused by terrorism in the Sahel region are both the highest in the world, making it the most turbulent region in the world.

Last November, French President Macron announced the official end of the "Crescent Dunes" operation in the Sahel region, which had been in operation since 2014. Last year and this year, the French army stationed in Mali and Burkina Faso withdrew successively.

"France has recognized the failure of its military intervention in the Sahel region, and withdrawing its troops is also a last resort. Although France remains the most influential extraterritorial power in the region, the Niger coup does represent the failure of France's security strategy in the Sahel region over the past decade, causing a huge impact on France's overall influence in the region," said Li Wentao.