Both parties say "won"!, Unexpected election politics | People's Party | General Election

Both the Workers' Socialist Party and the People's Party claimed to have won the election, and the Spanish political situation entered an unstable stage. The results of the country's early general election held in late July showed that out of the 350 seats in the House of Representatives that determine the right to form a cabinet, the opposition People's Party won 136 seats, becoming the largest party in Congress. The current ruling party, the Workers' Socialist Party, ranks second with 122 seats, and neither party has reached the required 176 seats for a separate cabinet. In addition, under the suppression of mainstream political parties, the highly anticipated far right forces have shown signs of decline - the Call Party has reduced its seats by one-third, only gaining 33 seats. Although it has barely maintained its position as the third largest party, the possibility of participating in coalition governance has decreased.

Given the numerous contradictions between the left and right political parties on issues such as ideology, economic governance, and local autonomy that are difficult to reconcile, it is difficult to form a new government through party alliances. Spain may hold a new general election by the end of this year.

1

Left and right opposition exacerbates social division

The People's Party led by the leader of the new party, Fei Huo, has won 47 more seats than in the previous election. However, even if it forms an alliance with the Voice Party, it cannot cross the threshold of forming a cabinet and achieve the goal of joint governance. This result is far from what was expected before the party's internal and external elections. Under unprecedented pressure from falling behind in pre election polls and losing heavily in local elections, the Workers' Socialist Party lost its position as the largest party, but successfully prevented the People's Party from gaining an absolute advantage and directly taking power.

After the election results were announced, the current Prime Minister and leader of the Workers' Socialist Party, Sanchez, publicly announced his party's "victory", aiming to demonstrate the party's determination to once again achieve joint governance through subsequent political negotiations. Regarding the election results, supporters of the People's Party generally fell into disappointment, while supporters of the Workers' Socialist Party shouted "the left continues to lead the country forward". Local Spanish media therefore described the People's Party's victory as "bitter" and the Workers' Socialist Party's defeat as "sweet".

The confidence of the Workers' Socialist Party in continuing to govern mainly comes from Spain's recent impressive economic performance. During the COVID-19, Spain was once a member of the EU with the deepest economic recession, which directly led to the opposition of the ruling party to the popular support rate of the People's Party. However, after a series of reforms, the employment rate of the country not only rose significantly, but also is expected to become one of the euro zone countries with the fastest economic growth and the lowest inflation rate in 2023. Thanks to the external assistance of the EU Recovery Fund, which amounts to 140 billion euros, the Sanchez government is capable of implementing more inclusive social policies and has raised the minimum wage by nearly 50% within four years.

The internal and external policies of the Sanchez government have been increasingly effective, allowing the Workers' Socialist Party to stabilize its vote base. The People's Party criticized the country's public debt, especially social security debt, which has set a new historical record and a high fiscal deficit rate, posing potential risks to national development.

The political landscape of two parties facing each other has intensified the social division in Spain, and the two parties are fiercely competing on many issues.

In the field of wealth distribution, the Workers' Socialist Party plans to raise taxes on the wealthy to ensure the implementation of high welfare social policies; The People's Party opposes high taxes and supports the return of neoliberal economic policies.

In the social and cultural field, the Workers' Socialist Party advocates removing content related to religion from the education system, aiming to eliminate the possibility of extreme right-wing forces using religion to promote extreme values; The People's Party insists that religion is an important component of national culture and demands its preservation.

On the issue of immigration, the Workers' Socialist Party implements an open policy to maintain overall population stability; The People's Party demands stricter scrutiny and control over foreign immigrants.

In the field of diplomacy, the Workers' Socialist Party focuses on strengthening its relations with "southern countries" such as Latin America; The People's Party strongly advocates moving closer to the United States and supporting the escalation of sanctions against Russia.

The People's Party of the center right has an advantage in large and medium-sized cities, while the Workers' Socialist Party of the center left firmly controls vast towns and rural areas. The energy of both sides is on par, forming two "Spain".

2

The prospect of forming a cabinet is unclear

The election results have plunged Spain into a political stalemate. According to the Constitution, King Felipe VI will consult with representatives of the Presidium of the Parliament on the candidate for Prime Minister. As the leader of the largest party in parliament, Feho will enter the first round of parliamentary voting. If he cannot obtain an absolute majority, a second round of voting will be held 48 hours later. At this time, he can form a cabinet by obtaining a simple majority. If Fei Huo fails to pass the level, Sanchez will go through two rounds of voting in the same process to fight for the right to form a cabinet.

Due to the previous decision of the People's Party to jointly govern with the Voice Party in several autonomous regions and cities, many other political parties have raised concerns about the entry of extreme right-wing forces into the national political power, and as a result, the outside world is not optimistic that the People's Party will obtain the right to form a cabinet.

In theory, the current Prime Minister Sanchez may win in the second round of parliamentary voting, provided that the seven members of the "Together for Catalonia" party do not vote against it. Although Sanchez stated that in order to maintain his rule, he could spare no effort to "seek approval in the stones", the chances of the Workers' Socialist Party winning are still very limited. In 2017, it was precisely this government that forcibly suspended the "Together for Catalonia" party's "independence referendum" in the Catalan region, and the party's founder, Puigdmont, is still wanted and exiled overseas by the government. Moreover, working with the party will inevitably make the Workers' Socialist Party face collective opposition from the left-wing camp.

Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether a new government can be successfully elected after this round of elections. If a cabinet cannot be formed, Spain may hold a new general election by the end of this year.

3

Political deadlock or triggering internal and external influences

The direction of Spain's political process may have a series of important internal and external impacts in the political, economic, and social fields, and the international community is generally concerned about the follow-up progress of the country's elections.

One possibility is that the country's far right forces may make a comeback. In recent years, far right political parties that are skeptical and anti European have had an impact on the political order of multiple European countries. As former British Prime Minister Brown recently wrote, the Spanish election is seen as a barometer of whether Europe will continue to turn right. Although from the current election results, the discourse power of the far right forces has been weakened, as long as elections are held again, the Voice Party may once again have the opportunity to participate in coalition governance. Once the party enters the governing team, it will undoubtedly have an incentive effect on other countries, and the interaction and convergence of far right political parties on a European scale will ultimately seriously threaten the overall process of European integration, creating a more conservative and exclusive closed social atmosphere.

The second is that the Catalan issue is facing a test. After the independence referendum, many companies moved their headquarters away from Barcelona, resulting in a high youth unemployment rate and a change in local public opinion, with people paying more attention to their immediate interests. The Workers' Socialist Party also seized the opportunity to implement inclusive policies to promote economic recovery in the region and provide clear development expectations to the people. In this election, the Workers' Socialist Party won a big victory in the Catalan Autonomous Region. However, in the "number game" of parliamentary votes in the country, small and medium-sized political parties often become the decisive force. If major political parties make compromises and concessions at critical moments in forming a government, it may complicate the development of the region.

Thirdly, the domestic political stalemate hinders Spain's exercise of the rotating presidency of the European Council. Various sectors of society had high expectations for Spain to assume the rotating presidency in the second half of 2023, including setting priority agendas within the EU framework, advancing specific reform issues, and coordinating the common positions of member states. However, the early election itself has forced Prime Minister Sanchez to postpone his policy interpretation speech at the EU headquarters, and the recent EU Latin American and Caribbean Community Summit held in Madrid also ended hastily, failing to achieve the expected progress in promoting substantive cooperation between the EU and Latin America. It can be imagined that under the political stalemate, the "floating government" responsible for caretaker duties is too preoccupied, and political parties are bound to prioritize cabinet negotiations and elections. Spain will find it difficult to make any progress during the remaining presidency.