What signals does Iran's series of actions release?, Expanding social circles and depth again | Showing off muscle again | Proposing to form a regional naval alliance | Domestic hypersonic missiles | Iran

With China successfully facilitating the dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Beijing, the Middle East region has entered the fast lane of "resolving the tide", and Iran is also seizing this opportunity to develop and seek breakthroughs. Recently, Iran has taken frequent military and diplomatic actions, not only publicly showcasing its domestically produced hypersonic missile "Conqueror" and proposing to form a naval alliance with regional countries, but also continuing its positive momentum in diplomacy. What signals are Iran's series of developments and changes releasing? Can we make a breakthrough again?

What is the purpose of frequently "showing off muscles"?

Recently, Iran has frequently become the focus of attention from the outside world.

On the 6th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force held a ceremony in the Iranian capital Tehran, showcasing for the first time the domestically produced hypersonic missile "Conqueror" to the public. According to Iranian media, the new ballistic missile has a maximum range of 1400 kilometers and a maximum speed of 15 Mach, which is 15 times the speed of sound.

Iranian President Lehi said at the ceremony that the "Conqueror" missile will enhance Iran's "deterrent power," which is the anchor of lasting security and peace for countries in the region.

According to Iranian state television, the "Conqueror" can bypass the "most advanced ballistic missile defense systems" of the United States and Israel, including Israel's "Iron Dome" anti missile system.

The Associated Press believes that the missile displayed on the 6th appears to be a model, but it can be seen that the engine has a variable tail nozzle, indicating that the missile can change its trajectory during flight. The more irregular the trajectory, the harder it is to intercept.

Before showcasing its first hypersonic ballistic missile, Iran successfully tested a new ballistic missile with a range of 2000 kilometers at the end of May. It is reported that the missile is an upgraded version of the Horamshahel-4 missile, capable of carrying 1500 kilograms of warheads.

At the same time that Iran frequently "shows its muscles", public opinion noticed that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia on the 6th, becoming the third US senior official to visit Saudi Arabia recently. Some analysts said that the important tasks of Antony Blinken's trip included stabilizing relations with Saudi Arabia, emphasizing the presence of the United States in the region, and promoting the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

In response, Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University stated that Iran's display of new military weapons and technology is largely to demonstrate its enhanced defense capabilities to the United States and Israel, and to demonstrate its strategic will to play against them domestically. In recent years, testing new weapons and conducting military exercises have become routine actions of Iran.

Niu Xinchun, director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, also believes that Iran's announcement of missile progress is mainly aimed at deterring the United States and Israel. In recent years, two pairs of contradictions have become increasingly prominent in the Middle East's "easing tide", namely the military struggle between Iran and the United States, and Iran and Israel. In recent months, the military confrontation between the two sides in Syria and the maritime confrontation in the Persian Gulf region have continued to intensify, which is an important background for Iran's eagerness to demonstrate military strength. On the other hand, although Iran's nuclear negotiations are currently stalled, Iran is also hesitant to truly cross the "nuclear threshold" on the nuclear issue, and is therefore focusing on developing its advantages in missiles. In recent years, Iran's missile capabilities have rapidly increased, becoming the country in the Middle East with the most types and varieties of missiles.

What does it mean to propose a joint naval alliance?

In addition to remarkable achievements in missile development, Iran's recent proposal to form a naval alliance with Arab countries in the region has also sparked heated discussions, even causing the United States and Israel to exclaim that they cannot understand.

Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani said in an interview with local media on the 2nd that in order to ensure the security of regional waters, Iran plans to form a naval alliance with regional countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq, which will also include India and Pakistan.

Irani stated that Oman has previously conducted joint naval exercises with Iran multiple times, and countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq now also hope to engage in maritime military cooperation with Iran. He also stated that he will soon witness the region's liberation from foreign armies without legal authorization.

At present, the relevant countries have not responded to Iran's statement. However, just a few days before the news spread from Iran, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement confirming that the country had withdrawn from the United States led maritime force two months ago, due to UAE's consideration of effective security cooperation in the Middle East region.

Regarding Iran's proposal, spokespersons for the US Fifth Fleet and Joint Maritime Forces claimed that it was "unreasonable," while Israeli media considered it "unbelievable news.".

What does Iran's proposal to form a naval alliance mean? Can it become a reality again?

Analysts point out that Iran's proposal has a major premise, which is the warming of relations between Iran and Gulf countries. Last year, Iran and the United Arab Emirates fully resumed diplomatic relations. In April of this year, with China's mediation, Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed diplomatic relations that had been suspended for seven years.

Liu Zhongmin stated that Iran's proposal to jointly maintain the security of the Persian Gulf and even the Indian Ocean waterway with Gulf Arab countries, India, and Pakistan was unimaginable in the past. However, now not only Iran has proposed, but the United Arab Emirates has also confirmed its withdrawal from the US led maritime alliance. This is sending a new signal: Iran's participation in and even leading role in the "wave of reconciliation" is extending and developing from the diplomatic field to the military security field.

However, Liu Zhongmin pointed out that sending signals from both sides is only the beginning. India and Pakistan have sharp contradictions. Can they jointly participate in the mechanism advocated by Iran? Cooperation between regional countries remains fragile, can trust be gained between Saudi Arabia and Iran? There are still many problems that need to be solved. In addition, if regional countries take too fast a step towards de Americanization in the field of political security, the US may also take measures to intervene and disrupt the security atmosphere of cooperation.

Niu Xinchun also believes that military alliances are one of the highest forms of cooperation between sovereign countries, and both sides need sufficient mutual trust in order to exchange and cooperate militarily and further form a military alliance. Although the improvement in relations with Saudi Arabia has allowed Iran to propose the idea of forming a naval alliance, it may still be far from becoming a reality.

Can there be a breakthrough in diplomatic progress?

The public opinion believes that Iran has not only shown military achievements in recent days, but also made a series of progress in diplomacy.

At the regional level, the favorable momentum brought about by the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues.

On June 6th, the Iranian Embassy in Saudi Arabia reopened. UN Secretary General Guterres praised the resumption of diplomatic relations in Shay as an "important progress" in increasing regional stability.

On May 28th, Sultan Haisaim of Oman visited Iran again after a decade, and the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding and agreement on promoting investment. The leaders of the two countries also discussed issues such as the normalization of relations between Iran and Egypt.

Outside the region, Iran is also striving to expand its circle of friends.

According to Iranian media reports on June 7th, Lech plans to visit Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba next week to strengthen relations with these Latin American countries.

On June 2nd, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian stated at the BRICS Friends of Foreign Ministers Meeting held in South Africa that as Iran seeks to become a member of the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism, it will soon expand its relations with Russia, China, and India within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

From May 23rd to 24th, Laixi made a return visit to Indonesia and reached a series of cooperation agreements, including the "Preferential Trade Agreement", agreeing to strengthen the political and economic relations between the two countries.

What is the driving force behind Iran's diplomatic progress?

Liu Zhongmin stated that the interaction between Iran and countries both inside and outside the region, such as Indonesia and Oman, reflects the improvement of the relationship between Iran and the Islamic world, which has been brought in by the Shah. After Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016, many Islamic countries also followed suit. The easing of relations between the two countries has naturally brought impetus to Iran's expansion of its circle of friends in the Islamic world.

Niu Xinchun stated that in the past two years, Europe and the United States have increased their sanctions, making Iran eager to seek a breakthrough in diplomacy. In this context, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Shah and Iran is bringing greater diplomatic space. Not only has the relationship between Iran and Arab countries been eased, but Syria, which belongs to the same camp as Iran, has also returned to the Arab League. Negotiations between the Yemeni Housai armed forces and Saudi Arabia have also made progress. Outside the region, not only Lech will visit Venezuela, which is regarded as the "rival" of the United States, but Saudi Arabia also received Venezuelan President Maduro on the first day of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Saudi Arabia.

Can Iran leverage the favorable background of resuming diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia to seek its own development and achieve more breakthroughs?

Regarding this, Liu Zhongmin stated that during his recent visit to Iran, he deeply felt the economic and livelihood difficulties in Iran. At present, Iran has a strong demand to break through the blockade and seek improvement in the development environment, and is actively seeking cooperation with China and other emerging Asian economies. From the current background, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Iran, as well as the weakening of US influence in the Middle East, have also created conditions for Iran's economic development and foreign exchanges.

However, Liu Zhongmin pointed out that US sanctions remain a bottleneck for Iran's development, and "it may be difficult for Iran to completely change this in the short term.".

From an external perspective, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran have not been relaxed, but are still being strengthened. The advantages of the United States in the financial and energy sectors, as well as its means of imposing sanctions on Iran, are still issues that Chinese and other companies in the Asia Pacific region cannot avoid when cooperating with Iran. Internally, there are structural issues in the Iranian system that restrict development, with severe economic inflation and lack of vitality. The potential of the energy sector is also difficult to unleash due to sanctions.

Niu Xinchun believes that from the overall trend, Arab countries currently hope to ease relations with Iran, and related progress will also play a positive role in regional peace and stability. But Iran will still face multiple challenges ahead. On the one hand, Israel and the United States, who are dissatisfied with the situation, may take countermeasures. On the other hand, can improving relations with Gulf countries achieve Iran's goals, promote economic cooperation, and break free from economic isolation? The result is still unknown.