Zelensky wants to open up a new stage of counterattack?, Using Crimeans to steer the Ministry of Defense, deeply | withdrawing "wartime defense commander" Leznikov | Zelensky | Ministry of Defense
On the 4th local time, Leznikov, who had previously been dismissed from his position as defense minister, submitted his resignation to the Speaker of the Ukrainian Supreme Rada.
The day before yesterday, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the replacement of the defense minister, who will be replaced by the head of the state-owned asset fund, Umerov.
This is the most significant personnel adjustment in the Ukrainian defense system since the escalation of the crisis in February last year.
Analysts believe that Zelensky's change of leadership is mainly due to the pressure of the situation - the Ministry of Defense is deeply embroiled in a corruption scandal and the progress of the frontline counterattack is not smooth. The intention is to showcase the new image of the Ministry of Defense, enhance internal cohesion, and open up a new situation on the battlefield. However, this move may only have an indirect impact on the development of the war situation, and will not have a turning or even decisive impact.
Why change generals in the face of battle?
"I have decided to replace the Ukrainian Minister of Defense," Zelensky said in a national television speech on the evening of the 3rd. "The Ministry of Defense needs new methods and different forms of interaction with the military and society.".
It is difficult to understand why Zelensky made such a decision if he flipped through Leznikov's resume and credit book.
According to Xinhua News Agency, 57 year old Leznikov is a lawyer who helped Yushchenko win an election lawsuit in 2004. He narrowly escaped becoming president.
After entering politics, Leznikov served as the Deputy Mayor of the capital city of Kiev. In 2020, he joined the Zelensky government as Deputy Prime Minister, and in November 2021, he became the Defense Minister.
Since Russia launched a special military operation in February last year, Leznikov, as the "wartime defense commander," can be considered to have fulfilled his duties faithfully.
As Zelensky himself said, "Leznikov has been through this full-scale war for over 550 days," indicating that he has always been involved in the war process and has not left midway.
During this period, he led the Ministry of National Defense to lobby the West and bring a large amount of military aid to Ukraine.
Nowadays, almost all of the German made main battle tanks, American "Hamas" rocket launchers, Patriot anti missile systems, and even the first batch of American made F-16 fighter jets that are being prepared to be taken over by Ukraine have been written by Leznikov.
Recently, Leznikov also revealed that the West has provided Kiev with weapons worth at least $100 billion so far.
Why did Zelensky "attack" the head of the Ministry of National Defense, who has worked so hard and achieved great success? Is it all birds hiding their bows?
Zhao Huirong, Director of the Ukrainian Research Office at the Russian Institute for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that the serious corruption problem and the stagnation of the counterattack were the main factors for the replacement of the defense minister.
According to Xinhua News Agency, since January this year, Ukrainian media has been continuously pressuring Leznikov to disclose corruption scandals in the Ministry of Defense, including buying military supplies and uniforms at prices several times higher than the market price. In this regard, Leznikov denies all accusations and repeatedly claims that he has been smeared.
"In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, the issue of corruption is very sensitive and can have an impact on military cohesion, obtaining Western military aid, and society's trust in the government. Although there is no direct evidence of Leznikov's involvement in corruption so far, as the head of the Ministry of National Defense, he cannot shirk his responsibility and needs to bear political responsibility." Zhao Huirong said.
At the same time, the progress of the frontline counterattack is difficult at present. There are voices in the West that believe it is related to factors such as too long the counterattack front, scattered troops, and mistakes in the direction of concentrated counterattacks, while Ukraine believes that the important reason is insufficient weapons and troops, which are also related to corruption.
"Under internal and external pressure, Zelensky must respond," Zhao Huirong said, silencing the voices at home and abroad questioning Ukraine's military capabilities and prospects for counterattack. On the other hand, by replacing the defense commander and introducing new young faces, it can to some extent showcase the new image of the Ministry of National Defense and raise expectations from the outside world.
Liu Jun, Vice Dean and Professor of the School of Political and International Relations at East China Normal University, and Executive Director of the Russian Research Center at East China Normal University, believes that in addition to cracking down on corruption and strengthening internal management, the current replacement of the Defense Minister is also related to the setbacks in Ukraine's counterattack. Zelensky intends to change the situation through a "change of command" by the Ministry of Defense.
Currently, Zelensky is under significant pressure. The West has provided a large amount of weapons and support, but the Ukrainian army has not advanced effectively on the battlefield, and there has been little progress in the counterattack. With the delay of the war, there is an increasing level of fatigue within the West towards Ukraine. In this situation, Zelensky hopes to send a signal to the West that Ukraine is reorganizing its forces and will strengthen cooperation between the defense minister and the frontline commander in the future, opening up a situation for counterattacks.
In fact, Zelensky's decision to replace the defense commander and personnel adjustments in the military field last month - dismissing the recruitment leader and regional military committee leader, replacing them with Ukrainian soldiers and officers who have participated in combat, and further expanding the close relationship between recruitment. Liu Jun believes that this entire set of actions demonstrates Zelensky's efforts to deal with the escalating military tension.
As for Leznikov's whereabouts, according to Xinhua News Agency, a Ukrainian legislator has hinted that he may become the next Ukrainian ambassador to the UK.
Why does he rise to power?
What kind of person is Umerov, the new defense commander who turns his gaze to the future? How could he be favored by Zelensky?
According to Xinhua News Agency citing Agence France Presse, a brief portrait of Umerov can be roughly outlined.
Umerov, who is currently 41 years old, is a member of the Crimean Tatar tribe. He made his fortune through telecommunications in 2004 and was elected as a member of parliament in 2019. He also served as co chair of the Crimean Platform Summit. This multilateral diplomatic mechanism was initiated by Ukraine with the aim of reintroducing Crimea into Ukrainian control.
After Crimea withdrew from Ukraine and entered Russia, as well as after the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in February last year, Umerov participated in a series of sensitive behind the scenes talks between Ukraine and Russia, including reaching agreements to exchange prisoners and evacuate civilians. He also participated in negotiations to reach an agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port.
Since September last year, Umerov has been appointed as the head of the Ukrainian State owned Assets Foundation. This position is considered particularly challenging as the privatization process of Ukrainian state-owned assets has been heavily affected by corruption.
Zhao Huirong pointed out that at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense exposed a corruption scandal. At that time, the Deputy Defense Minister was dismissed, and there was also debate about whether to replace the Defense Minister. Afterwards, there were constant voices within the government about replacing the defense commander, but a decision was only made today, mainly due to long hesitation in selecting a successor.
"This is related to the complexity of Ukraine's internal politics and its relationship with the United States and the West. As Ukraine's high-level personnel appointments require communication with Western partners, especially the United States."
According to Zhao Huirong's analysis, Zelensky's final choice of Umerov may be due to his emphasis on the following qualities:
Firstly, its relationship with the United States is relatively close.
Although Leznikov generally cooperated with the deployment of the United States and Zelensky, he had different opinions on Western policies towards Ukraine and Zelensky's policy measures. For example, accusing the United States and the West of providing too many suggestions and insufficient military aid; Not recognizing the large-scale expansion of conscription by Zelensky.
Now, bringing Umerov, who is pro American and closely related to Zelensky, to power may be an intention to make more adjustments that align with the wishes of the United States and Zelensky.
Secondly, he is more professional and has some experience in supervising and managing state-owned assets in Ukraine, which helps him to be responsible for the procurement and distribution of military supplies by the Ministry of National Defense.
Thirdly, be good at negotiation and communication. Umerov has participated in negotiations such as the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement, demonstrating his advantages and abilities in communication and negotiation.
In addition, Umerov is a Crimean Tatar, which indicates that he belongs to a more radical pro American and anti Russian faction in the Ukrainian ruling team. From the current development trend of Ukrainian politics, this candidate is in line with the increasingly radical and geopolitical trend of Ukrainian politics.
Liu Jun said that since the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for more than a year and a half, the capable cadres around Zerensky have been basically exhausted and there is limited room for talent selection. Umerov stood out not only because of his pro American background, but also because of his deep trust in Zelensky.
Another analysis suggests that appointing Umerov, who has the identity of a Crimean Tatar, as the defense commander also demonstrates Zelensky's determination to reclaim Crimea.
According to regulations, the nomination of Umerov will also be submitted for parliamentary review.
Will the conflict become more intense?
At the moment of continuous confrontation and stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, does this major personnel reorganization of Ukraine mean that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a new direction? Can Zelensky achieve his potential goals through a "change of coach"?
Liu Jun believes that the new Defense Minister will inevitably ignite three fires after taking office. Whether it can effectively combat corruption, reform the management system, and then reverse the momentum of weak counterattacks remains to be seen. But overall, it may be difficult to make fundamental changes.
"Zelensky's biggest goal is to open up a situation on the battlefield, but the overall situation determines that no matter who is appointed as the defense commander, it is unlikely to have a decisive impact on the direction of the conflict."
The most important reason is that the flames of war have continued to spread to this day, and Ukraine's living forces, especially those that can be put into combat, have been severely damaged. This can be seen from another large-scale expansion of conscription.
Secondly, the weapons provided by the West may cause some damage to the Russian side, such as drones, but these weapons have not yet achieved their maximum effectiveness. Other more advanced weapons, such as F-16 fighter jets, will take time to truly take off.
Thirdly, the defense commander belongs to the civil service and mainly plays a role in the second line, including providing logistical support to the front line, and is unable to control the situation on the front line battlefield.
"The Defense Minister is not a military commander and does not directly participate in military operations, which is unlikely to have a direct turning point impact on the development of the battlefield situation. However, his policy measures will have an indirect impact on the future military situation," Zhao Huirong said.
On the one hand, after joining the Ministry of National Defense, Umerov will first make adjustments to the purchase and distribution of military supplies, and respond to Zelensky's anti-corruption measures to prevent large-scale corruption scandals from happening again in the future. This is beneficial for maintaining unity and cohesion within the military.
On the other hand, compared to his predecessor Leznikov, Umerov's background and experience mean that he will be more in line with the overall strategy of the United States and the deployment arrangements of the Zelensky administration. He will also continue to play a crucial role in obtaining military aid.
When it comes to the direction of the conflict, Zhao Huirong judged from a series of statements made by Zelensky and the United States that there is a clear intention to prolong the conflict and intensify its intensity. She is concerned that with the increase in Western military aid weapon strike capabilities and the expansion of Ukraine's strike range, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will become more intense, and the catastrophic impact will also increase.
