Will US inflation rapidly cool down? Goldman Sachs: Overoptimistic Market Expectations | Strategist | US
On June 19th, according to comprehensive foreign media reports, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group recently stated that inflation in the United States will not decline rapidly as the market is currently pricing.
According to reports, strategists led by Pravin Kolaparti wrote in a report that investors may assume that a significant slowdown in economic growth will lead to faster easing of price pressures, and tend to believe that energy prices will fall to lower levels. However, Goldman Sachs strategists believe that the likelihood of these factors reducing inflation is limited, and that the market has also overlooked the possibility of "delayed inflation" in industries such as healthcare.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs also suggests trading with investors who share their inflation views. The company's strategist suggests that investors purchase one-year swap contracts, betting that inflation will eventually exceed the current market pricing level.
Previously, it was reported that the US Department of Labor released data on June 13th, showing that the US Consumer Price Index rose 4.0% year-on-year and 0.1% month on month in May. This is the smallest year-on-year increase in US CPI data since March 2021.
In response, the Associated Press analyzed that although there were some "positive signs" in May CPI data, it is still not enough to convince Federal Reserve policymakers that the high inflation that has plagued the United States for more than two years is coming to an end.
According to a report by Consumer News and Business Channel on the 14th, a survey conducted jointly by CNBC and Morning Consulting shows that about 90% of surveyed Americans have reduced their spending to some extent due to high inflation.
A survey shows that shoppers say inflation continues to squeeze their financial situation, with middle-income Americans particularly concerned about inflation. Among the respondents, 92% of middle-income Americans expressed "some" or "very" concern about rising prices. In both low-income and high-income groups, this proportion is 88%.
The survey also found that in the past six months, price increases have led to nearly 80% of consumers reducing their spending on non essential items such as entertainment, home decoration, clothing, and appliances. In addition, two-thirds of the respondents stated that they have reduced their spending on essential items such as groceries and natural gas.