Will the US and Russia directly conflict here? Niger | Russia | United States and Russia
On August 3rd, the website of Newsweek published an article titled "Will there be a direct conflict between the United States and Russia in Niger?" by Joe Jackson. The article excerpt is as follows:
Niger has always been an important ally of the United States in the Sahel region of Africa, and the recent coup in the country has raised concerns among Western observers, especially considering Russia's increasing influence in Niger.
Despite Kremlin officials calling for Niger to remain calm, media reports indicate that many participants in the pro coup protests in the Nigerian capital Niamey last weekend held Russian flags and shouted slogans in support of Russian President Putin.
Putin also stated that he seeks to strengthen relations with Africa. After suspending the Black Sea food agreement with Ukraine, he recently provided free food to African countries.
The private military group in Wagner, Russia has signed contracts with countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali, and it may take advantage of the unrest in Niger.
On August 3rd, Niger's anti sanctions protesters held Niger and Russian flags during a rally in the capital Niamey.
At the same time, the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to Niger in recent years, and has two bases in Niger with approximately 1100 US troops stationed.
Despite these factors, David Silby, Associate Professor of History at Cornell University, said that he "does not believe he will see direct confrontation between the United States and Russia in Niger.".
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He said, "Neither side wants to get involved. There is a risk of accidental conflict between local people supported by the US military and Russia. Some people find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time and start shooting. Unfortunately, unexpected wars are not so rare."
Similarly, Joseph Sigley, the research director of the African Strategic Research Center, does not expect to see any conflict between American soldiers and Wagner soldiers.
He said that although Wagner has 1000 to 1500 mercenaries in Mali and may soon deploy some to Burkina Faso, this mercenary organization currently has no local troops in Niger.
But terrorism researcher Colin Clark warns that Russia may take advantage of the situation in Niger.
Clark wrote on Twitter, "We should avoid exaggerating Russia's role in inciting coups in African countries, but we also need to be cautious and not underestimate Moscow's ability to project influence through events it sees as not crises but opportunities."
Clark said that if Western countries support the Western Community and Russia supports Niger through the power of the Wagner Group, it will lead to a significant escalation of the situation.