Will the expansion of BRICS countries be vetoed by India with one vote? Attitude | BRICS | One vote veto

The expansion of the BRICS cooperation mechanism has become a hot topic in international public opinion recently.

The 15th meeting of BRICS leaders will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa from August 22nd to 24th. This summit is considered to be of historic significance, because it will consider including regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Türkiye and Indonesia, and consider establishing a common currency.

The host of this summit, South African President Ramaphosa, stated on July 17th that BRICS leaders will discuss the issue of capacity expansion at this summit.

This trend has made the G7 uneasy, and Western media has begun to spread suspicious news.

On August 2nd, Reuters reported that Brazil is the member country with the highest doubts about the expansion of the BRICS, surpassing India. A few hours later, Brazilian President Lula publicly retorted, expressing support for more countries to join the BRICS mechanism composed of developing countries.

What is the attitude of the BRICS countries towards expansion? Will the BRICS team, which has remained unchanged for 12 years, grow stronger at this year's summit? Chao News interviewed renowned international expert and professor Jin Canrong from the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China.

Western media claims that Pakistan and India oppose expansion, and Lula personally refutes the rumors

"Nowadays, the BRICS mechanism has become a multilateral cooperation mechanism with significant influence in the international political and economic system. BRICS countries have established close cooperation with emerging markets and developing countries through BRICS outreach activities and 'BRICS+' cooperation." Jin Canrong told Chao News reporters.

It is reported that the total population, land area, total economy, and total trade of the BRICS countries account for approximately 42%, 26%, 25%, and 18% of the world's total, respectively. Their total share in the International Monetary Fund and voting rights in the World Bank are both about 14%.

The last expansion of BRICS countries can be traced back to 2011 when South Africa was included in the group. Although the 2017 Xiamen Summit officially launched the "BRICS+" mechanism, the new member states are still unclear.

South Africa's BRICS coordinator, Sukar, said in early June that the number of candidate countries and the complete list are confidential, but he stated that "there will be new candidate countries.".

RT reported that 22 countries have applied for formal accession, the most popular of which are Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as Türkiye, Indonesia, Algeria, Egypt, Argentina, Venezuela, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kenya. West African countries have also joined the candidate list, with Nigeria being the strongest competitor.

On July 27th, Bloomberg reported, citing so-called sources, that Brazil and India oppose the expansion of the BRICS and hope to introduce observers to "prevent the BRICS from becoming a balancing force against the US and Europe.".

According to today's Russian television website on August 3rd, India and Brazil have denied reports from Western media about their concerns or opposition to BRICS expansion, and Brazil has also expressed support for BRICS expansion.

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagchi said at a press conference on the 3rd, "Some media have claimed that India has reservations about the BRICS expansion plan, which is an unfounded speculation. This is simply not a fact."

On August 2nd, Lula expressed her views to reporters: "There are many countries that want to join, and if they comply with the rules we are setting, we will accept their joining."

On June 1st, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated that as a principle, China has always advocated that the BRICS countries are an open and inclusive mechanism. We support the BRICS expansion process and welcome more like-minded partners to join the BRICS family as soon as possible.

China, South Africa, and Russia firmly support capacity expansion

Jin Canrong believes that there has been a new trend since the beginning of this year, which is that platforms such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which play important roles in China, are accelerating the expansion of their circle of friends. "Previously, the SCO had officially absorbed Iran, and next year it will discuss Belarus."

According to South Africa, the host country of this year's BRICS summit, there are now more than 20 countries on the application list, and the willingness of each country to join the group is strong.

Jin Canrong's analysis suggests that among the BRICS countries, China, South Africa, and Russia firmly support the expansion of capacity, while Brazil's attitude may have been somewhat ambiguous, but recently, Lula's statement is also welcomed.

"The expansion of the BRICS was originally the idea of China, and now South Africa is also very active. Russia was not very active, but after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it faced strong pressure from the United States and the West, and urgently needed to expand the circle of friends to obtain broad international support, so Russia's attitude changed greatly."

India holds a veto power

"But now we have encountered a bit of trouble. India's attitude towards the expansion of the BRICS is relatively negative." Jin Canrong explained that it is not that India openly opposes the expansion, but its attitude is ambiguous. "Although the Indian official on the 3rd spoke up and India did not oppose it, they did not support it. Everyone could tell that he was actually quite hesitant."

Why is India's attitude so negative? Jin Canrong summarized the following reasons: "Firstly, the dominance of China on the BRICS platform is very strong, and it is becoming stronger. Our country's GDP is more than twice that of the total of the other four countries, and the BRICS Bank was also established under the leadership of China. Now, India has some strategic resistance against China, which is partly influenced by the United States, but more importantly, it is still India's own problem."

"In any international institution led by China, India is not very willing to expand." According to reports, at least 20 countries have applied to join the membership, and with interested countries, the total number may exceed 40. Jin Canrong proposed an obvious inference: after expansion, India's position in the BRICS platform will decrease, and it may not be as effective in speaking.

Jin Canrong believes that even though 20 countries sincerely want to come in, India dare not openly express opposition because it would offend these countries. "But India will definitely be unwilling and unwilling, as it may create some procedural obstacles."

"It should be emphasized that although the BRICS mechanism has been institutionalized to a certain extent, it is not yet a formal international organization. It is only a forum spontaneously organized by five emerging market powers, with annual summits, senior officials' meetings, working group meetings, etc." According to Jin Canrong, currently the BRICS has not adopted a majority vote on major issues, but rather a negotiated solution. The prerequisite for making a formal decision is that all member states reach a consensus. "So, in fact, India can veto with one vote."

Jin Canrong gave an example: Previously, French President Macron proposed to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa, but it was eventually abandoned due to strong opposition from Russia alone. This also deprives the BRICS mechanism of a good opportunity to sit down and engage in equal and friendly exchanges with Western powers.

The trend of BRICS expansion cannot be stopped

In Jin Canrong's view, in the long run, the good development of the BRICS countries is beneficial for India. The BRICS countries are still mainly developing countries, and India is considered a major developing country in all aspects. Leaving the BRICS would be detrimental to it.

"The expansion of the BRICS has expanded its circle of friends, and India's negotiating position with the West will be strengthened." Jin Canrong said, "Now it's just because Indian high-level officials have various strange ideas about China, and their mentality is not correct, leading to some irrational behavior."

According to RT reports, countries are currently discussing internally the standards for expanding candidate countries and the ways to advance the expansion process. "At present, the expansion of the BRICS has just been put on the agenda, and there are internal differences on specific standards, so it is highly likely that new members will not officially join this year. However, this matter will be discussed as a topic at the BRICS summit, and there should be substantial progress."

Jin Canrong said that for China, as long as this opening is made, it will be a great progress. At this summit, it is expected to establish the principles and conditions for new members to join, and then expand. "The expansion of the BRICS is definitely a trend that no one can stop."