Why emphasize two "critical periods"?, China's top management assesses the macroeconomic situation, upgrades measures, systems, policies, industries, China, and economy

On the eve of the release of the China Economic Half Year Report, Li Qiang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over an expert symposium on the economic situation on the afternoon of July 6th. The meeting pointed out that China is currently in two "critical periods".

One is the critical period of economic recovery.

Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy has shown a clear upward trend, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in the first quarter of the year. It is expected that the growth rate in the second quarter will be faster than that in the first quarter. Some international organizations and institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year and cast a vote of confidence.

But this does not mean that the Chinese economy is at ease. The world political and economic situation is complex and still has many impacts on China's development.

Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Research Director of JLL Greater China, told China News Agency that the current Chinese economy is still in a "weak recovery" stage, and the endogenous driving force of the economy and effective social demand still need to be nurtured and strengthened. The external environment is becoming more complex and severe, especially the uncertainty that economic growth may face in the third and fourth quarters should be fully estimated.

Considering the current form, pace, and intensity of China's macroeconomic recovery, it is widely believed that effective social demand still needs to be further nurtured and stimulated by macroeconomic policies. There is still room for improvement in the synergy, combination, targeting, and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

At the halfway point of the 2023 progress bar, the official issued a clear signal: to take more powerful measures to stabilize the economic recovery in the second half.

Previously, the State Council executive meeting held on June 16th focused on increasing macroeconomic policy regulation, expanding effective demand, strengthening and optimizing the real economy, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas, and proposed a series of policy measures. The meeting emphasized that policy measures that meet the conditions should be timely introduced and implemented, while strengthening the reserve of policy measures to maximize the comprehensive effect of policies.

At this symposium, it was proposed to pay attention to the combination of policies, focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and risk prevention, and timely introduce and implement a number of targeted, combined, and collaborative policy measures.

"Timely", "Grasp", "Strengthen", "Maximize" Behind these urgent statements, China is accelerating the introduction and orderly implementation of a more powerful package of policy measures.

Pang Ming believes that China's current countercyclical policies have shown significant effects in stabilizing confidence, stabilizing growth, and expanding domestic demand. The marginal improvement and stable recovery of the economy have not yet changed, and it is highly likely that various goals for economic and social development for the whole year can be achieved.

Secondly, the critical period of industrial upgrading.

At the time of the shift in China's economic growth rate and the opening of the "window" for transformation, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system around the primary task of high-quality development has been put on the agenda.

Yuan Lei, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that any developed economy in the world without exception has a large and efficient modern industrial system. At present, the global value chain is accelerating its adjustment, and competition among major countries is becoming increasingly fierce. Whoever has a more competitive modern industrial system will have an advantage in the competition.

In addition, in the context of multiple challenges intertwined, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system is also necessary to ensure the security and stability of the industrial and supply chains, and to ensure the supply of food, energy, and resources.

But the more crucial it is, the more orderly it should be. While accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, traditional industries remain the mainstay of China's manufacturing industry and have strong international competitiveness, serving as the foundation for building a modern industrial system. They cannot be simply labeled as "low-end and backward" and cannot be simply "retreated".

Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote an article on this, stating that we should guide and support traditional industry enterprises with large quantities and wide coverage to keep up with the times, actively adopt advanced and applicable technologies to accelerate transformation and upgrading, and continuously improve market competitiveness. For those who face difficulties in upgrading but also have the conditions for transformation, they should adapt to local conditions and guide their transformation and development in a timely manner, and work together through transformation and upgrading to form new development momentum and create new competitive advantages.

Emerging industries are the new pillars that lead future development, but we cannot be greedy for foreign investment and blind development. Zheng Zhajie stated that we must adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and continue to make efforts in planning development strategies, gathering high-end factors, optimizing market environment, and cultivating industrial ecology. We will use technological breakthroughs and model innovation to promote new industries and formats. We should seize the planning and layout of major strategic industries and future industries, and promote the formation of new growth points.