Why do American high-ranking officials "run" to visit China? China and the United States are at odds with each other at the Hong Kong Association. Singapore | China and the United States | The United States
Direct News: Mr. Chen, the defense ministers of China and the United States have been at the "incense ceremony" in Singapore, but senior officials from the US State Department and National Security Council have rushed to Beijing to visit. How do you see this situation?
Chen Bing, a special commentator: the Chinese and US defense ministers exchanged words at the "Hong Hui" in Singapore, and the Chinese side also rejected the US request for a meeting between the defense ministers of the two countries, but we can see that the defense ministers of the two countries still ate at the same table, appeared at the same frame, and shook hands to greet them. it means that there is still room for turnaround in Sino-US relations. The most important point is that the defense ministers of the two countries have reached some consensus in the tit-for-tat confrontation. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu said that if there is a fierce conflict and confrontation between China and the United States, it will be an "unbearable pain" for the world.
When responding to the Taiwan Strait issue, US Defense Secretary Austin said that any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be "devastating" and once again issued a request to resume physical meetings. This indicates that both China and the United States have a willingness to restore relations, and the United States may be more urgent. So there was a phenomenon of high-ranking officials from the US State Department and the National Security Council running to visit China to discuss key issues in bilateral relations. What is the key issue?
Therefore, senior officials from the US State Department and the White House National Security Council visited Beijing together, probably to discuss US Taiwan policy with China and avoid "misjudgment". Overseas media also reported that CIA Director William Burns secretly visited China in May and had in-depth discussions with Chinese officials on US China relations.
The Chinese side demands that the US cannot demand communication on one hand and suppress China on the other, including frequent increases in US military sales to Taiwan, upgrading official exchanges with Taiwan authorities, and working together with countries such as Japan and the Philippines to increase tensions in the Taiwan Strait. US officials responsible for diplomacy and security are visiting Beijing. If specific plans can be proposed to alleviate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, China US relations may ease and high-level exchanges between China and the US may resume. If we continue to talk without practice like in the past, then the relationship between China and the United States will not thaw. An important point for us to observe whether the relationship between China and the United States has turned global in the future is to see if high-level exchanges between the two militaries can resume.
Direct news: Multi level exchanges between China and the United States seem to have become active recently, with well-known American entrepreneurs gathering in China for visits, and Chinese Commerce Minister and Ambassador to the United States meeting with US government officials. Will China US relations first break through economically?
Chen Bing, a special commentator: the main reason why Sino-US relations have come to this state is that in order to maintain hegemony and seize the world's resources, the United States does not hesitate to reconstruct the world pattern with the Cold War mentality, and to split the world into two systems and two markets.
The strategic actions taken by the United States are divided into two steps. Firstly, by providing military assistance to Ukraine, the economic, trade, and market connections between Russia and Europe are broken, further weakening Russia's economic strength and international influence; The second is to regard China as the top strategic competitor, comprehensively suppress China in terms of economy, trade, technology, and military, build a "small courtyard and high wall" against China, and maintain the center and monopoly position of the United States in the world economic system and security field.
From Trump's imposition of tariffs on China to Biden's decoupling of China, playing the "Taiwan card" and restricting exports of chips and technology to China, the strategic focus of the United States has now shifted to the Asia Pacific region to curb China's further development. Western economists have a rough judgment that 2027 and 2028 are the key years for whether the economic status of China and the United States has changed. If China surpasses the United States, then the hegemonic position of the United States will slide and the world situation will undergo significant changes. But the Biden administration's economic decoupling and disconnection from China has now encountered significant problems. Europe is not willing to follow suit, and countries in other regions do not want to take sides. Therefore, the United States has launched a slightly mild "de risk" approach, but this is still "de sinicization", treating China as a "risk".
An important point is that this "pan security" and "pan politicization" economic strategy has already harmed the US economy and American companies, such as Tesla CEO Musk openly opposing the economic "decoupling" between the US and China during his visit to China. Nvidia President Huang Renxun, who may be visiting China soon, said that the Chinese market is unique and cannot be replaced by other markets. If American companies want to give up the Chinese market, their own production capacity will at least decrease by one-third.
The US debt default crisis, which has just passed the crisis, has also made the world see the risks of the US economy. The status and credibility of the US dollar have been questioned. "De dollarization" has become a "risk aversion" strategy for many countries. It can be said that the United States is suppressing China's economy, trade, and technology, but its own country is on fire. What should we do? Then strengthen communication with China and see if we can put out the fire as soon as possible. The recent thawing of economic exchanges between China and the United States is a product of this background.
But personally, I still hold a reserved attitude towards whether economic exchanges can melt the deadlock in China US relations, because the most ruthless move of the US containment strategy towards China is to reduce the overall capacity of the Chinese economy by restricting cutting-edge technologies such as chip technology, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing, and strive to maintain the US hegemony in economy and technology.
However, the enormous advantages formed by China's reform and opening up over the past 40 years, such as infrastructure, market size, talent reserves, and industrial clusters, have created a "magnetic field effect" on global business. You set restrictions in the United States, but other countries and their companies will still make big strides towards China, which will hedge against the United States' hegemonic strategy of suppressing China. Market forces may break through the political barriers and strategic gaps of the United States, and the United States' "risk reduction" towards China may gradually shift towards "risk reduction" towards the United States.
Author | Chen Bing, Special Commentator for Shenzhen TV's Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan
