Why are some cities with large GDP not "strong cities"? China | Cities | GDP
A big city may not necessarily be strong, and a small city may not necessarily be weak if it finds its comparative advantage.
In today's world where the strength of cities is mostly based on GDP rankings, the recently published book "The Era of Strong Cities" evaluates the pattern and vitality of high-quality urban development in China through a series of data and indices. This evaluation conveys a new concept: the high-quality development of cities is not only reflected in the effective utilization of resources in individual cities, but also in the pattern of mutual division of labor and complementary advantages formed between different cities.
Recently, Lu Ming, one of the authors of "The Era of Strong Cities" and a specially appointed professor at the Antai School of Economics and Management at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, as well as the executive director of the China Development Research Institute, was interviewed by the China News Agency Guoshi Express. He talked about China's urbanization process, the changes that are happening in China's urban landscape, and how to respond to these changes.
Has China's urbanization process slowed down?
Is the country a direct train: Some people believe that China's urbanization is currently in a new period of comprehensive slowdown, and even believe that the urbanization process has come to an end. Do you agree with this view?
Lu Ming: I don't agree with this viewpoint. Firstly, from a data perspective, the speed of urbanization in China has not slowed down, as can be seen from the comparison between the sixth and seventh population censuses. Over the past decade, the speed of urbanization has slightly accelerated statistically.
Secondly, we should also see that the current urbanization process in China, especially in the registered residence system, the land supply of population inflow areas and other aspects, still has institutional constraints, and the shortage of infrastructure and public services still exists. If the policy measures are appropriate and can release these spaces, make up for the shortcomings through supply side reforms, and unleash the potential for urbanization, then China's urbanization will not experience a slowdown. This is different from the history of other developed countries.
The country is a direct train: You have repeatedly called for equal public services and social security for urban migrants. What specific aspects can be taken into account?
Lu Ming: The greatest significance of providing equal public services and social security for the migrant population is that it is a policy of win-win economic and social development. From an individual perspective, through such reforms, better quality of life, employment opportunities, income levels, public services, and social security can be obtained in the process of mobility.
For the entire country, this is conducive to the free flow of population and improves the efficiency of human resource allocation. In the context of a trend of aging and fewer children, it not only improves the efficiency of human resource allocation, but also serves as an extremely important driving force for economic development.
In addition to the above economic effects, at the social level, if the process of citizenization of migrant population and the process of equalization of public services can be successfully implemented, it will also help to eliminate the unequal status quo caused by the differences in civil identities of different cohabitations within cities under the traditional system, especially the registered residence system.
Why are some cities with high GDP not "strong cities"?
The country is a direct train: The book "Strong City Era" has launched the "Big City Strong City Index". Surprisingly, there is a discrepancy between the GDP of some cities and their rankings in the Big City Strong City Index. Chongqing ranks 5th in GDP and only 41st in the Big City Strong City Index. Wuxi, ranked 14th in GDP, ranks 6th in the Big City Strong City Index. Changzhou, ranked 25th in GDP, ranks 10th in the Big City Strong City Index. Why does this ranking appear? How to be considered a "strong city"?
Lu Ming: First of all, it should be noted that the specific rankings in the book should not be too complicated, as some rankings are calculated based on existing statistical data. Readers should pay more attention to some of the concepts we convey in the Strong City Index.
When compiling the Strong City Index, the core idea of Professor Chen Xian from Shanghai Jiao Tong University is to consider whether a city is strong or not, not just the total quantity. China has passed the era of relying on total expansion to promote urban development. Some places are desperately expanding their urban construction area and increasing investment, but the efficiency of investment is not high. Although the volume is large, the efficiency is not high, which does not indicate that the city is very strong.
On the contrary, some cities may not have such a large population and economic size, but they perform well in resource utilization efficiency, innovation, labor productivity, and other aspects. So although such a city is not big, its efficiency indicators give it extra points.
The country is a direct train: what specific concepts are conveyed by these indicators?
Lu Ming: This index is to remind everyone to change traditional concepts, not to blindly increase investment and expand land, blindly expand urban area, but to focus on the efficiency and quality of urban development. In addition to some mega and mega cities that are constrained by traditional systems, there may still be room for further expansion. In the future, more cities should pay more attention to efficiency indicators, such as output per unit land area, which is conducive to improving land intensive use.
For example, labor productivity and innovation, these indicators are conducive to improving the efficiency of human resource utilization. In summary, these efficiency indicators should be given sufficient attention.
How to view the issue of development and balance between cities?
Lu Ming: The relationship between development and balance has been a concept that I have been calling for a change over the past decade. The concentration of modern economy in space is increasing, and the gap between economic scale and population size between different cities is gradually widening. This is an objective result of the agglomeration effect of modern economy, which is the same worldwide.
And balance, if we understand it as the total scale between different regions, in order to reduce the differences in scale between regions, is contradictory to the natural trend of agglomeration economy in modern economy. Therefore, the most crucial conceptual shift is to understand the balance and development between regions as narrowing the gap in per capita indicators. The per capita indicators usually refer to three indicators, namely per capita GDP, real per capita income, and quality of life.
Overall, the gap in these indicators is in a continuous downward trend in China. From a trend perspective, in about 20 to 30 years, it will be possible to narrow the per capita GDP gap between regions in China to the comparable state of some larger market economy countries.
Why have northern cities fallen behind?
The country is a direct train: "Urban Capital Vitality" ranks in the top 10, except for Beijing, all other cities are in the south. How do you think we should enhance the capital vitality of northern cities?
Lu Ming: I think it is necessary to discuss the issue from two perspectives: innate conditions and acquired conditions.
From the perspective of acquired factors, it is generally agreed that the South, especially the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, has done a good job in terms of market economy development, business environment, friendliness towards private enterprises, property rights protection, market order, and other aspects. The political business relationship between the government and enterprises is also more conducive to private enterprise investment. Overall, the completeness of the industrial chain, level of technological development, and accumulation of human resources in these regions are also relatively good.
However, there are some issues that have been discussed less in existing discussions, mainly related to geographical conditions. During the planned economy period, cities in northern China had advantages, which persisted until the 1990s. In the 1980s, the per capita GDP of northern cities was still about 1.5 times that of southern cities, and it was not until the 1990s that it shrank to 1.
However, after the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has embarked on a path of globalization and marketization. International trade is achieved through sea transportation. There is a very important lack of natural conditions in the north, which is the lack of cooperation between inland waterway navigation and coastal ports. From the perspective of coastal ports, some ports in Northeast China may freeze in winter, resulting in relatively poor shipping conditions. More importantly, even with ports, the north lacks the coordination of inland waterway navigation with large rivers like the south.
With the deepening of China's economic globalization process, the overall development of manufacturing in the north, especially in export-oriented manufacturing, is relatively inferior to that in the south. This can also explain why provinces such as Northeast and North China were once relatively prosperous, but after the reform and opening up, they were surpassed by the South. The factors such as systems, concepts, and culture mentioned earlier are difficult to explain the changes in the North South gap.
Therefore, there are two things that northern cities need to do. On the one hand, they need to objectively and fairly view the relative disadvantages of the northern natural and geographical conditions, and pay more attention to per capita indicators. Some cities in the north have relatively backward economic rankings, but their per capita indicators are not that poor.
On the other hand, in the relatively less favorable natural and geographical conditions, the northern region should make more efforts to optimize the conditions for future development. However, it is somewhat regrettable that I also agree with the observations of various sectors of society that northern cities are indeed not doing enough in terms of systems, culture, business environment, and private property protection. Therefore, there should be some significant progress in these areas to revitalize the northern economy.
Is the country a direct train: How will resource-based cities like Hegang or industrial cities like Zibo develop in the future?
Lu Ming: There are some resource-based cities that are geographically more remote, and the population is currently experiencing negative growth. However, if we look at the problem from a per capita perspective, if a place's resources are depleted, the decrease in population will actually be beneficial for the increase in per capita resources. If the resources of resource-based cities are depleted and there are many people there, it will instead lead to a lack of employment opportunities and an inability to increase per capita income.
How some industrial cities develop depends on their own conditions. Some industrial cities rely on resource conditions, so they continue to rely on resource conditions. Some industrial cities are located closer to the coast, which gives them the advantage of joining the entire industrial chain of urban agglomerations. Some industrial cities are undertaking strategic industrial functions for certain countries, so they are subject to the strategic arrangements of the entire country.
Every industrial city needs to find a suitable industrial development model based on its own conditions, geographical location, resources, etc.
