Whoever takes office faces dual challenges, and who will be the next NATO Secretary General? Competitors each have their own shortcomings when appointed | Own | Candidates | UK | Central and Eastern European Countries | Europe | United States | Secretary General

Recently, as the NATO Vilnius Summit approaches, the selection of NATO Secretary General has become a focus of international attention. The Secretary General of NATO is the highest position in the civilian ranks of NATO and serves as the facade of NATO. Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO? There are many competitors in this competition, but each one has unsatisfactory shortcomings.

——Danish Prime Minister Met Frederickson, as the current national leader, has a top-level circle of friends and a natural advantage in coordinating the positions of NATO countries. As a female candidate, she comes with a "gender equality vote". In early June, before her visit to the United States, she announced that Denmark would increase its defense spending by $20.6 billion over the next 10 years to meet NATO's military spending requirements. This visit is seen as his "pilgrimage to the pier" to run for NATO Secretary General. But NATO Secretary General has already served two consecutive terms from Nordic countries, and Central and Eastern European countries are very resistant to selecting another Nordic leader.

——Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Karas, as a female Prime Minister of Central and Eastern European countries, not only has similar resources and advantages as Frederickson, but also receives support from Central and Eastern European countries. But some NATO member states are concerned that their tough stance and extreme rhetoric towards Russia are "excessive.".

——British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace was once nominated as the most popular candidate. He has a rich military history and senior political background. He is highly praised for his efforts to promote the British military reform, and he followed the United States in responding to the Russia-Ukraine conflict with "good dispatch", so he was fully recommended by British Prime Minister Sunak. But Wallace was met with full resistance from EU politicians represented by French President Macron, as they hoped that NATO Secretary General would be appointed by EU members, while Britain had already left the EU. US President Biden also recently stated that he does not support Wallace's competition for NATO Secretary General, and Wallace publicly admitted that his ambition to become NATO Secretary General will not be realized.

European Commission President von der Leyen and Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez also appeared on the list of candidates. However, for the former, the European power Germany prefers it to remain as the President of the European Commission; The latter bears the heavy responsibility of leading the Spanish Workers' Socialist Party to win domestic elections and consolidate its governing position, leaving no time for him to worry.

The reason why NATO Secretary General has difficulty giving birth is because it is a position that needs to take into account the interests of all parties. The competition for the Secretary General's candidate has also become a game full of conflicting interests. From a historical perspective, NATO has been militarily led by Americans as the Commander in Chief of the European Allies, while the position of Secretary General has been held by Europeans. To date, there have been 13 Secretary General positions. Among them, candidates from Western European countries have been appointed 9 times, Southern European countries 2 times, and Northern European countries 2 times. No one from Central and Eastern European countries has yet been appointed to this position. The main leadership positions of EU institutions - generally including the President of the Council, the President of the European Commission, and the President of the European Parliament - will be considered in conjunction with the Secretary General of NATO. The selection of NATO Secretary General needs to be widely coordinated within Europe, with a unified allocation of leadership positions in major European institutions to achieve a balance of power among multiple parties in Europe.

In reality, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Central and Eastern European countries, as NATO members closest to the front line, demanded more say in the European security architecture. However, there is still a significant gap in the overall development level and military capabilities of Central and Eastern European countries compared to Western European countries, and Western European countries will not easily relinquish their power.

From the perspective of the international situation, the general election and institutional change of the European Parliament will be held in 2024, and the current change process has not been initiated. If NATO Secretary General locks in candidates in advance, it will put the deployment of other positions in Europe in a passive position. In 2024, which is still an election year, Russia and Ukraine are facing general elections, and the US presidential election will also take place. The domestic political changes in these countries will also have a significant impact on NATO actions.

In fact, regardless of who ultimately holds the position of NATO Secretary General, the "behind the scenes manipulator" in charge of NATO - the United States - firmly sits on the fishing platform. According to NATO practice, although the position of Secretary General is held by Europeans, the United States, as the leading force of NATO, has the greatest say in the selection of Secretary General. Stoltenberg, who is currently 64 years old, took office in 2014 and has been hired three times. Previously, he explicitly refused to extend his term. But after his recent visit to the United States, he publicly stated that he will obey the decisions of the 31 NATO member countries in the future. The Economist in the UK analyzed that the United States hopes that Stoltenberg can stay in office.

However, as analyzed by Reuters, whoever serves as NATO Secretary General will face a dual challenge of both uniting NATO to support Ukraine and avoiding NATO's involvement in direct war with Russia. Whether Stoltenberg will continue to "monitor" NATO remains to be seen, but how NATO will respond to the challenges of the current international situation is indeed a difficult problem to be solved.

Whoever served as NATO Secretary General faces dual challenges