Who will collide with Hangzhou or Wuhan?, Only two players this year have challenged the "Two Trillion Club" player city | High quality | Players
Hangzhou and Wuhan have hit the "two trillion yuan club" and this year has ushered in the most critical moment.
According to economic data in the first half of the year, the GDP of Hangzhou reached 960.2 billion yuan, and that of Wuhan reached 950.333 billion yuan, both approaching the trillion yuan mark. It is already a step away from the annual peak of two trillion yuan.
Two trillion yuan is a "line". If calculated as a single economy, it can rank in the top 50 among countries and regions around the world. If both Hangzhou and Wuhan can enter the "two trillion yuan club" this year, it means that there will be 9 cities in China with GDP exceeding 2 trillion yuan, while the rest will be Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Suzhou, and Chengdu.
Two trillion yuan is not just a "line". In the era of high-quality development, GDP is no longer the only hero, but the expectations of Hangzhou and Wuhan's dual impact on the "two trillion yuan club" are still being fulfilled. Because this will not only bring huge improvements or even leaps in the energy levels of the two cities, but also have a guiding significance for the upgrading of China's industrial system.
It's not easy to hit two trillion yuan,
The growth rate in the second half of the year is crucial
Is there much hope for an impact of two trillion yuan?
Although we have reached the doorstep of the "Two Trillion Club", in official public reports, Hangzhou and Wuhan have not mentioned the impact of the two trillion yuan, indicating that the pressure is still very high.
Taking a look at the data, it can also be calculated that "collision lines" are not so easy to achieve.
In the first half of this year, Hangzhou's GDP reached 960.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.9%. The annual GDP is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, and in the second half of the year, the GDP must exceed 1039.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of at least 6.6%.
Wuhan is no exception. Its GDP in the first half of the year was 950.333 billion yuan, which is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan for the whole year. In the second half of the year, its GDP must exceed 1049.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of at least 5.35%. According to Wuhan's 5% growth rate in the first half of this year, the second half of the year can only be fast, not slow.
"However, compared to Wuhan, Hangzhou's pressure will still be slightly lower." Ming Wenbiao, Executive Director of the New Economic Development Research Center of Tsinghua Yangtze River Delta Research Institute in Zhejiang, told Chao News reporters that in the first half of the year, Hangzhou's GDP was more than 10 billion yuan more than Wuhan's, approaching 2 trillion yuan.
"The pillar industries in Wuhan are also facing huge challenges." Ming Wenbiao said that Wuhan is the headquarters of gasoline vehicles, and automobiles are the pillar industry of Wuhan, with a total output value of over 300 billion yuan. However, in recent years, with the rise of new energy vehicle forces, several automobile companies represented by Dongfeng Motors have been left behind, which has a great impact on the finance, employment, and industry of the entire Wuhan. Although the growth rate of industrial added value in Wuhan in the first half of this year is still 4.2%, it is still much lower than the 6.8% in the same period last year.
Although the growth rate and total amount of industrial added value in Hangzhou are inferior to Wuhan, the strong growth of the tertiary industry, especially the digital economy, has brought the city back. In the first half of this year, the added value of the tertiary industry in Hangzhou increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with a total amount of 674.8 billion yuan, which is nearly 100 billion yuan more than Wuhan's 576.9 billion yuan, laying the foundation for Hangzhou's GDP to surpass Wuhan in the first half of the year.
In fact, for more than a decade, Hangzhou and Wuhan have been in a state of anti super and being anti super. In Ming Wenbiao's view, there is a significant difference in the economic background between the two cities——
The difference between heavy and light. More than 70% of the above designated industrial enterprises in Wuhan are heavy industries, such as large automobiles, large steel, and large petrochemicals, while the industries in Hangzhou are relatively light. Although there are also heavy industries such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, the leading industries are still light manufacturing and information service industries;
The difference between big and small. There are many large central and large state-owned enterprises in Wuhan, such as Dongfeng Motor, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Yangtze River Storage, China Construction Third Engineering Bureau, and Gezhouba Group, all headquartered in Wuhan. More than 40 large state-owned enterprises and large central enterprises account for half of Wuhan's industrial revenue. In contrast, in Hangzhou, small and medium-sized enterprises contribute 40% of the total industrial output value;
The difference between gathering and scattering. In Hubei and even the entire Gan Xiang E region, Wuhan plays a leading role in attracting various surrounding resources. Hangzhou also has a certain siphon effect in the Yangtze River Delta, especially in Zhejiang, but there are also trillion level cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Wuxi, Ningbo, and Suzhou in the surrounding areas. Moreover, the interaction between information volume, human flow, and capital flow in the Yangtze River Delta region is more close, reflecting a characteristic of "I for everyone" and "everyone for me" overall.
These differences reflect differences in industrial structure and economic growth patterns. The momentum of different types of cities competing with each other precisely reflects the infinite vitality of the Chinese economy.
Not only GDP, but also heroes,
Is there any value in hitting two trillion yuan?
Is it meaningful to challenge the "Two Trillion Club", not just GDP as a hero? During the interview, the opinions of the experts were positive.
"Entering the 'Two Trillion Club' means that the level of urban development has entered a new level." Qin Shili, Deputy Director and Chief Researcher of the Regional Development Research Institute of Zhejiang Development Planning Research Institute, told Chao News reporters that looking at the development and advancement of major cities around the world, every time the total economic volume exceeds one trillion yuan, it means that the level of urban development will also reach a new level.
The fact is indeed so. If a city's GDP reaches 2 trillion yuan, and for every 10% increase in GDP, the total GDP of the country can be increased by 200 billion yuan, equivalent to an additional increase of 0.16%, which is of great significance for the current stable and high-quality economic development. Horizontally, a city with a total economic output of two trillion yuan is also a considerable volume, equivalent to one Guizhou, two Gansu, three Hainan, and four Ningxia. Even compared to countries and regions around the world, it can still enter the top 50, equivalent to the current level of the Czech Republic and Finland, and higher than Portugal and New Zealand.
Moreover, entering the "Two Trillion Club" in different eras has different reference values for China's economic development.
At present, among the seven cities in China's "Two Trillion Club", the time it takes to enter from 1 trillion to 2 trillion varies. Shanghai took 5 years, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chongqing took 6 years, Guangzhou and Chengdu took 8 years, and Suzhou took 9 years. If Hangzhou and Wuhan can enter the "Two Trillion Club" this year, it will be 9 years for Hangzhou and 10 years for Wuhan.
It is not difficult to see that in the later stage, the time to enter the "two trillion yuan club" is longer. Although there are differences in urban size behind this, it is even more important to see the changes in economic growth patterns under the changing times.
"The rapid development stage of first tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen coincides with the period of rapid catch-up of the entire country after the reform and opening up. Benefiting from the extensive growth model, they have entered the 'Two Trillion Club' in a shorter period of time. Qin Shili said that after entering a new stage of high-quality development, the extensive and large-scale development path is obviously not feasible. Therefore, for candidate cities such as Hangzhou and Wuhan, which are 'Two Trillion Club', they need to rely more on new industries, new formats, and new technologies to drive the leap of urban economic size, which has profound significance for high-quality economic growth and improving urban governance level. This' line 'is also more difficult to cross.".
This viewpoint coincides with many experts. "The current impact on the 'two trillion yuan club' has indeed put forward higher requirements for urban governance." Ming Wenbiao said that the current large-scale GDP means that diversified economic and social units cannot be driven solely by one industry, one enterprise, or one group as before. It is necessary to fully mobilize the vitality of various market entities, and also take into account the needs and demands of various people. This requires the government's governance model to be more scientific, rule of law, and more flexible.
Therefore, both Hangzhou and Wuhan have been actively laying out new tracks and cultivating new growth points in recent years. For example, Hangzhou is building "five ecological industrial circles" and "high-level reshaping of the first city of digital economy", while Wuhan is vigorously developing nine pillar industries, including the new generation of information technology, automotive manufacturing, and services, mainly based on "optical core screen end network". In the process of entering the "Two Trillion Club", these emerging industries will not only establish new moats for Hangzhou and Wuhan, but also create new growth poles for the Chinese economy, generating new sample values to promote high-quality economic development.
Is there more drama in Hangzhou?
Don't worry, the key is to see who can "run far"
Who can be the first to enter the "Two Trillion Club" in Hangzhou and Wuhan? Experts share the same view: it may be Hangzhou.
"The reasons are multifaceted." Ming Wenbiao said, on the one hand, Hangzhou's growth rate in the second half of last year was less than 2%, while Wuhan exceeded 4%, making it easier for Hangzhou to achieve high-speed growth in the second half of this year; On the other hand, the Central Political Bureau meeting has just been held, and the Party Central Committee and the State Council have issued high-level opinions to promote the development and growth of the private economy. The overall environment is conducive to the healthy development of the platform economy and private enterprises. This also means that Hangzhou's digital economy may have endured 2-3 years of pain, but the pain faced by Wuhan in the traditional fuel vehicle industry may have just begun.
Of course, from a data calculation perspective, both Hangzhou and Wuhan have the possibility of entering the "two trillion yuan club". At present, both time and progress have passed halfway, and if the two cities want to work together to break through the line, they must face the challenges they face together.
One of the challenges is to adapt to the new international economic and trade environment. "The current international trade environment is deteriorating, and many enterprises are actually losing money to make a name for themselves." Qin Shili said, especially for Hangzhou, the dependence on foreign trade is higher than that of Wuhan. How to pull the export cart well and adapt to the dual circulation pattern dominated by domestic circulation, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can adapt to the trend of domestic and foreign trade integration, requires the government and chambers of commerce to play a more active role.
The second challenge is to accelerate the transformation of industrial structure. "The phoenix rebirth of traditional industries is crucial." Ming Wenbiao said that Wuhan has always been one of the industrial, transportation, and logistics centers in China. The three traditional industries of steel, construction, and logistics account for a large proportion, and must adapt to the new economic cycle. Industry must develop towards intelligence and standardization. Similarly, in the transformation of industrial structure, Hangzhou needs to cultivate more "hens" and create a better environment in fields such as biomedicine, new materials, new energy, and integrated circuits.
If we look towards the future, there are still many variables in the urban race between Hangzhou and Wuhan. Who can run further?
"Both cities have their own advantages, and we need to have confidence," Qin Shili said. For example, Hangzhou not only has advantages in terms of business environment, but also has a much higher total number of high-tech enterprises, listed companies, and unicorn enterprises than many new first tier cities, and even some key indicators exceed cities such as Guangzhou.
"The most crucial thing is that in the competition of high-energy cities, the leading economic form is more important than the leading industrial structure." Qin Shili explained that industrial structure, business environment, total capital, talent attraction, etc. are all components of the economic form, and Hangzhou's various indicators have performed well. Especially with the platform economy becoming the main form of urban economy, Hangzhou's advantages are more obvious. For example, if the first half of the digital economy is trade, and the second half is the combination of manufacturing and trade, and the combination of manufacturing and trade is actually a platform economy, Hangzhou is one step ahead of most cities.
However, the competition and cooperation between cities is not a zero sum game of "you win, I lose".
In Qin Shili's view, even cities with vastly different economic backgrounds like Hangzhou and Wuhan have the possibility of cooperation in areas such as technological innovation and industrial upgrading. In June of this year, a party and government delegation led by the Secretary of the Wuhan Municipal Party Committee and the Mayor visited Hangzhou for study and inspection. During this period, a total of 44 projects were signed, with a signing amount of 108.687 billion yuan. Among them, digital economy related projects accounted for a relatively high proportion, mainly involving new generation information technology, automobile manufacturing and services, big health, high-end equipment manufacturing, commercial services and other fields. This is a powerful example of deep integration between cities and the overall trend of China's economy towards high, new, stable and far-reaching development.
