Who can benefit?, Three departments are releasing heavily! "You don't need to subscribe to a loan to buy a house" has arrived

The policy of "buying a house without buying a loan" has come.

Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued a notice on optimizing the standards for determining the number of housing units in personal housing loans, promoting the implementation of the policy measures of "not recognizing loans but recognizing houses" for the purchase of first home loans.

The notice clearly states that when a resident family applies for a loan to purchase commercial housing, if their family members do not have a complete set of housing under the local name, regardless of whether they have used the loan to purchase housing, banking and financial institutions will implement the housing credit policy for the first set of housing. This policy, as a policy tool, is included in the "One City, One Policy" toolbox for cities to choose independently.

What is "buying a house without buying a loan"?

"House recognition" or "loan recognition" is a reference standard for banks to determine whether it is the first home when issuing housing mortgage loans.

"House recognition" refers to banks issuing housing loans based on the actual number of housing units owned by the purchasing family in the local area; "Loan subscription" refers to banks determining the loan ratio based on whether the family of the intended homebuyer has a housing loan record nationwide.

The strictest criterion for recognition is "recognizing both the house and the loan", which means that it is not only necessary to check whether the family buying the house has a house under their name, but also whether the family buying the house has a loan record nationwide. Once they have a house or a loan record, they are considered as a second home.

At present, purchasing the first home in various cities across the country enjoys a series of preferential policies, and the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate for the first home are significantly lower than those for the second home. In short, if identified as the first home, the purchase threshold will significantly decrease, and vice versa, it will significantly increase.

The "dual recognition" policy suppresses the demand for improvement

Looking back at the real estate regulation cycle in China since 2010, when the real estate industry faced an overheated situation, the policy of "recognizing both houses and loans" quickly lowered market temperature from both market expectations and actual purchasing power.

Beike Research Institute pointed out that for example, after Beijing launched the "dual recognition" policy twice in 2011 and 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties experienced a decline period of about one year, which was the longest decline period in each cycle, and the cumulative decline in housing prices reached a level of 15 percentage points. The reason for the sustained low housing prices in some northern cities such as Tianjin and Jinan in recent years is largely due to the untimely implementation of "housing and loan recognition", which has excessively suppressed market demand.

After the policy of "recognizing houses and loans", the activity of house changes in key cities has decreased, and there are obvious characteristics such as compromising house changes. Taking Beijing as an example, in 2021, compared to 2016, the area of the population who changed houses in Beijing has decreased by 5 square meters. From the perspective of the structure of the area of houses that were replaced, the proportion of houses with an area of over 120 square meters has decreased by 24 percentage points, and the demand for improvement has been suppressed.

Wang Xiaoqiang, Chief Analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, stated that currently, first tier cities and about 20 hot cities such as Xiamen, Chengdu, and Hefei are implementing a policy of "recognizing both houses and loans".

How much money can you save by canceling "dual recognition"?

According to the calculation of Beike Research Institute, taking Beijing as an example, for a 6.5 million yuan improved housing, the down payment ratio is 40% when "housing recognition does not require loan recognition"; In the case of "buying a house and buying a loan", the down payment ratio doubles to 80%, and the down payment amount is 2.6 million yuan more. Under the "house and loan" policy, if you sell a first home worth 4.5 million yuan and want to exchange for a second home worth 6.5 million yuan, there is a shortfall of 700000 yuan in the down payment, and it is highly likely that there is still an outstanding mortgage for the first home, indicating the difficulty of changing houses.

In addition, from the perspective of loan interest, there are differences in mortgage interest rates under different recognition standards. Based on the current interest rate level in Beijing, a commercial loan of 1 million yuan is available for 25 years, with equal principal and interest repayment methods. Under the "house and loan recognition" policy, the loan interest is overpaid by about 90000 yuan.

Which groups benefit?

Wang Xiaoqiang stated that the three departments have clearly promoted the implementation of "housing recognition without loan recognition", which is beneficial for two types of homebuyers in hot cities: one is those who have a loan house in their permanent residence and are ready to sell it for a new house; One type is the group of homebuyers who have a mortgage record in other cities outside their permanent residence but do not have a house locally.

After the implementation of the policy, these two groups will purchase houses again based on the loan interest rate of the first home, which can reduce the cost of purchasing a house. For the market, she believes that "buying a house without buying a loan" is conducive to the release of demand for improved housing, and also in line with the policy guidelines of better meeting the demand for improved and reasonable housing, enhancing market activity, and promoting the stable development of the real estate market.

Which cities will land?

It should be noted that this policy emphasizes: "As a policy tool, this policy is included in the 'One City, One Policy' toolbox for cities to choose independently."

This also means that cities will make decisions based on the city. It is up to the city the final say whether and when to implement them.

Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that in order for local governments to implement this policy, they need to consult with the local People's Bank. When implementing this policy, the local People's Bank of China will also take into account the implementation of policies tailored to each city and assess the operation and risks of the local real estate market.

Li Yujia believes that the bank's current housing loan quota is sufficient, and housing loans are still high-quality assets. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the balance of housing loans has been continuously declining, causing a certain impact on the quality of bank assets. It is expected that banks in various regions are likely willing to promote such policies, thereby stabilizing mortgage and asset prices.

Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that currently, households without houses and loans in Shenzhen make a 50% down payment, while those without houses and loans in Beijing and Shanghai have a basic down payment ratio of 60% -80%. He believes that "recognizing a house but not a loan" is not expected to be fully implemented in first tier cities, and it is likely to be piloted in remote areas such as Fangshan in Beijing and Lingang in Shanghai.