What structural changes have occurred in the market?, In the first half of the year, the transaction amount of the real estate market increased and the area decreased. Bureau of Statistics | Commercial Housing | Area
The strong resilience of high-energy cities has driven a slight increase in the transaction volume of commercial housing.
On July 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market, which showed that in the first half of this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 595.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.8%; The sales revenue of commercial housing reached 630.92 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, with residential sales increasing by 3.7%.
Regarding the phenomenon of downward sales area and upward sales volume, Song Hongwei, the research director of Tongce Research Institute, analyzed to reporters that the current trend of declining sales area of commercial residential properties nationwide means that the willingness of homebuyers to purchase is decreasing and their confidence is insufficient; Meanwhile, the sales revenue during the same period showed an increasing trend, indicating that the current focus of sales is mainly on the release of demand for improvement at the mid to high end. The prices of improvement projects are relatively high, which has raised the average price of the entire market. Among them, the demand for improvement is more obvious in high-energy cities.
This can also be seen from the regional performance. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the eastern region performed relatively well in the first six months of this year, with both the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing increasing year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of commercial housing reached 3876.1 billion yuan, accounting for 61.44% of the national sales volume, an increase from 58.97% in the first quarter. During the same period, the sales area in the central and western regions decreased by more than 10% year-on-year.
Among them, the eastern region divided by the National Bureau of Statistics includes four first tier cities. Analysis suggests that this also indicates that the current transaction heat of commercial housing may still be concentrated in high-energy areas and cities.
In fact, the difference between the growth rate of sales area and sales amount has been evident since March this year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the sales of commercial housing in China achieved a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1%, marking the first time this indicator has turned positive since February 2022, when it has been continuously negative for one year. During the same period, the cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing remained negative, at -1.8%.
Industry insiders point out that this is due to sales differentiation between regions and levels during the recovery period, with high-energy cities taking the lead in recovery and high average sales prices driving rapid improvement in sales. According to a research report by Xinda Securities, in the first three months of this year, the eastern region has maintained growth in sales area/sales for two consecutive months. The cumulative year-on-year decline in sales area/sales revenue in the central and western regions is still significant, and the decline has expanded compared to January and February, with significant regional performance differentiation.
After the release of the backlog of demand in March this year, "Little Spring" quickly came to an end, and the market turned weak from the second quarter, while high-energy cities maintained strong resilience.
According to Kerui statistics, in the second quarter of this year, transactions in first tier cities increased year-on-year and month on month, with growth rates of 41% and 31% respectively; This is mainly due to the accelerated entry of high-quality projects into the market, coupled with relatively abundant demand for improvement, which enhances the support for transactions. During the same period, the year-on-year growth rate of transactions in 26 key second and third tier cities also remained at 6%.
In Song Hongwei's view, currently China's housing has entered the era of stock, and the demand for improvement in core cities is becoming increasingly apparent. In the future, the trend of "shrinking quantity and rising price" in the real estate market will become a trend.
Although sales continue to grow, the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed for two consecutive months since April, dropping from a peak of 8.8% to 1.1%.
Wang Xiaoqiang, Chief Analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that the cumulative performance of the closing data in the first half of the year is not optimistic, especially the sales area is lower than the same period last year. Since the second quarter of this year, the market has shown clear signs of unclear recovery momentum, although policies in various cities have been frequent, the strength is limited. The current wait-and-see sentiment in the real estate market is strong, with weak consumer willingness and strong storage intention. There is still downward pressure in the short-term market.
