What signals have been revealed by the continuous statements from the central to local authorities regarding the real estate market observation? Market | Real Estate | Local
Recently, following the first clear proposal by the Central Political Bureau meeting to adapt to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship of the Chinese real estate market and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development has also made a clear statement on the direction of policy support. Subsequently, many regions also began to implement it quickly, with Beijing and Shenzhen, one of the first tier cities, making statements one after another. Carefully reading these statements from top to bottom, there are actually quite a few dry goods, so what signals are they revealing?
Let's first take a look at the statement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development. The full text is not long, but it clarifies the following policy directions:
Strongly support the demand for rigid and improved housing, and further implement measures to reduce the down payment ratio and loan interest rates for purchasing the first home;
Improve the reduction of taxes and fees for the purchase of affordable housing;
Personal housing loans "recognize the house but not the loan";
Continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings and accelerate the delivery of project construction;
To deepen the structural reform of the housing supply side, it is hoped that construction and real estate enterprises will actively participate in the construction of affordable housing, the renovation of urban villages, and the construction of public infrastructure for both emergency and emergency use.
Beijing and Shenzhen have repeatedly expressed strong support for two types of demand
On the evening of the 29th, the Beijing Housing and Urban Rural Development Commission stated that it will adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, combine with the actual situation of the Beijing real estate market, work together with relevant departments to quickly implement the work, strongly support and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Beijing real estate market.
On the afternoon of the 30th, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau also stated that it will better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, solidly promote the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, effectively maintain the order of the real estate market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shenzhen real estate market.
From the statements of the two cities, we can see that the rigid and improved housing needs of residents are the key directions for future policy support in these two cities.
Why is there currently only a statement without specific measures
In recent years, real estate regulation policies have been announced by local people's governments, as policy adjustments involve multiple departments such as housing and construction, finance, and social security. Therefore, in the current statement, we can see that the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development has clearly stated that it will "work closely with relevant departments to implement the work", indicating that Beijing will actively make policy adjustments in the future, and it will be a combination of punches. The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau also stated that it will work together with relevant departments of the city, central agencies stationed in Shenzhen, and various districts to ensure effective implementation.
Therefore, in the eyes of industry insiders, although there have been no concrete and practical measures taken from the central to local governments this time, the signal of the statement is significant, indicating that various regions have begun to actively implement the relevant policy spirit, and also indicating that there will be actions or measures to be introduced in the near future.
What are in the policy toolbox?
Against the backdrop of unwavering adherence to the principle of "housing for living, not for speculation", the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development has clarified the direction of policy implementation. Therefore, except for the possibility that investment speculative housing policies will not change, other policies have the possibility of optimization and adjustment. So, in the currently available policy toolboxes, adjustments to local and non local housing purchase thresholds, down payments and interest rates, tax exemptions, and selling one to buy one or selling old to buy new may all lead to policy adjustments and optimizations.
Taking Beijing as an example, loosening the restrictions on housing recognition and loan recognition, as well as adjusting the standards for non ordinary residential properties, has now become a hot topic of discussion among many media outlets and homebuyers.
Implementing policies based on the city is a key focus
Recently, at a meeting of the Central Political Bureau, it was clearly pointed out that real estate policies should be adjusted and optimized in a timely manner, and policies should be implemented according to the city. The words "timely" and "policies should be implemented according to the city" in this sentence provide clear instructions for various regions to implement the spirit. Local governments and relevant departments should actively explore and make good use of the policy toolbox based on their actual situation.
Wang Ruimin, Deputy Researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that for example, some housing conflicts have been greatly alleviated, and even some cities with excess housing require appropriate and relaxed land and financial policies to promote a stable and healthy development of the local market. But in some large cities with net population inflows, it still needs some moderately tight policies to avoid excessive easing and trigger corresponding hype. The top-level design of the central government, combined with differentiated local policies, can promote a stable and healthy development of the national real estate market.
When will the boots fall off
In the past year or so, most of the restrictive policies on real estate in second tier, third and fourth tier cities have been basically lifted, especially in many core second tier cities where purchase and loan restrictions have also been gradually relaxed. The reporter sorted out and found that currently, cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Xiamen, Changsha, Hefei, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, etc. still implement purchase, loan, sales, or price restrictions. So, from the current situation, policy adjustments and optimizations have become a major trend, but we can wait and see in August how strong the specific adjustments and optimizations will be.
