What signals are released?, Financial data "semi annual report" released for growth | Credit | Data
On July 11th, the People's Bank of China released its semi annual financial data report. Statistics show that RMB loans increased by 15.73 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 2.02 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, RMB loans increased by 3.05 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 229.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first half of the year was 21.55 trillion yuan, which is 475.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
What does the rebound in credit data indicate? How to view credit growth as "strong enterprises and weak residents"? What do you think of the slowdown in M2 growth rate? How can financial policies be further strengthened in the second half of the year? Let's take a look at this issue Quick Q&A ↓
Q
What does the rebound in credit data indicate?
A: In June, credit investment showed a rebound trend, with some data better than expected, indicating that with the implementation and effectiveness of previous policies, financing demand has been restored, and market confidence and expectations have further rebounded.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the significant increase in new credit and structural optimization in June are related to both seasonal factors and sustained policy strengthening. From the perspective of enterprises, the pace of credit disbursement slowed down in April and May, and market expectations have undergone a certain degree of transformation. After entering June, the financial management department has increased its efforts in countercyclical adjustment, and the implementation of interest rate reduction policies has further stimulated investment and production demand. In addition, the policy effectiveness of guiding and supporting the manufacturing industry, infrastructure and other fields continues to be released, and corporate loans still have support.
Q
How to view credit growth as "strong enterprises and weak residents"?
A: The overall growth of credit in the first half of the year showed the characteristics of strong enterprises and weak residents. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 2.8 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.33 trillion yuan and medium - and long-term loans increased by 1.46 trillion yuan. Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Research Director of JLL Greater China, believes that weak consumer willingness and limited consumer ability are the main factors restricting the growth of short-term loans for households.
![What signals are released?, Financial data "semi annual report" released for growth | Credit | Data](https://a5qu.com/upload/images/c7a30288b8e46af225fee3b16ea461c6.jpg)
Medium - and long-term loans for enterprises are still an important driving force for new credit, but there is still insufficient investment vitality for enterprises. The task of improving expectations and boosting confidence is very urgent, and policies need to continue to be intensified. Experts say that more powerful measures should be taken to enhance development momentum, boost the confidence of business entities, expand consumer demand, and promote sustained economic recovery.
Q
What do you think of the slowdown in M2 growth rate?
A: Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of Zhaolian Finance, stated that at the end of June, the balance of broad money was 287.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. Although the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month and 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, it was still at a high level and the market liquidity was relatively abundant.
Q
How can financial policies be further strengthened in the second half of the year?
A: The recently held executive meeting of the State Council emphasized that policy measures that meet the conditions should be timely introduced and implemented, while strengthening the reserve of policy measures to maximize the comprehensive effect of policies.
The second quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China clearly proposed to increase macroeconomic policy regulation, implement a prudent monetary policy accurately and effectively, do a good job in cross cycle adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, fully do a good job in stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, effectively support the expansion of domestic demand, improve the consumption environment, and promote a virtuous cycle of the economy.