What signal is being released?, Kim and Jung's speech discussing the possibility of a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States Mars | North Korea | possibility

The US strategic nuclear submarine docked in South Korea after 40 years, and the US South Korea negotiations extended nuclear deterrence... The confrontation on the Korean Peninsula carries increasing risks of nuclear war.

According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters reported on the 19th that the South Korean military detected North Korea firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula in the Shun'an area from around 3:30 am to 3:46 am that day. The missiles flew about 550 kilometers each before falling into the Sea of Japan.

This is North Korea's second missile launch this month. On July 12th, North Korea tested the Mars Cannon-18 solid intercontinental missile for the second time and announced that it will soon be equipped with this missile. On the second day after North Korea tested the Mars Artiller-18 missile, the United States sent B-52H strategic bombers to the Korean Peninsula to participate in exercises.

Compared to missile launches, Kim Yoo jung, Deputy Minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, mentioned in his speech that "discussing the possibility of a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States" has attracted more attention from the outside world. On July 17th, Kim Jong Un delivered a public speech in response to events such as extending nuclear deterrence through US South Korea negotiations and blaming North Korea for the inability to engage in US China dialogue. Jin and Zheng stated that the current situation on the Korean Peninsula far exceeds the level of confrontation between North Korea and the United States in 2017, reaching the point of openly discussing the possibility of actual armed conflict and the outbreak of nuclear war.

Does the new intercontinental missile give North Korea more nuclear confidence?

According to official North Korean media reports, on the 12th, North Korea tested the Mars Cannon-18 intercontinental ballistic missile and referred to it as the "core weapon system" of its strategic armed forces. According to a report by the Korean Central News Agency, a high ballistic missile was used in this test launch, with an altitude of over 6000 kilometers, a flight distance of 1001.2 kilometers, and a flight time of over 4491 seconds. Finally, it accurately landed in the target waters of the eastern waters of North Korea.

This is the second test launch of the Mars Artiller-18 missile. On April 13th, the missile underwent its first test launch, but North Korea did not disclose any data on the missile's flight, sparking speculation from the outside world. According to tracking data from the South Korean military, the horizontal flight distance of the missile launched this time is 1000 kilometers, and the highest point of the trajectory is less than 3000 kilometers. According to conversion, the missile has a range of only 6000 kilometers, which does not meet the range standards of intercontinental missiles.

Missile expert Li Wensheng said in an interview with reporters that based on flight data released by North Korea, the maximum range of the Mars Cannon-18 missile is estimated to be 14000-15000 kilometers, which can cover all of the United States territory. In order to deter the entire United States, North Korea's range indicator for intercontinental missiles is also above 14000 kilometers.

Li Wensheng introduced that compared to intercontinental missiles using liquid rocket engines, intercontinental missiles using solid rocket engines have shorter reaction times and stronger survivability. "The 'Mars Cannon-18' missile adopts new designs such as wheeled transport/erecting/launching integrated vehicles, solid rocket engines, and unsupported launch technology. Its response capability is definitely stronger than liquid missiles such as the 'Mars Cannon-15/17', and its maneuvering range is also wider, resulting in a significant improvement in overall performance," said Li Wensheng.

South Korea's "Central Daily News" published an article that the analysis believes that North Korea's launch has further enhanced the degree of deterrence against the United States. The solid fuel-based "Mars Cannon -18" can be hidden in underground facilities for a long time, and can be immediately taken out and launched in the event of an emergency. Kim Dong-yop, a professor at the South Korea Korean Graduate School, analyzed that "even if the warhead weighs 1000 kilograms, the engine power can make the missile fly more than 15000 kilometers".

According to an article published by the Korean Central News Agency, this test firing has demonstrated the capability, reliability, and military effectiveness of the new strategic weapon system, and verified the credibility of North Korea's nuclear strategic armed forces. According to the plan, North Korea's strategic armed forces will soon be equipped with the Mars Cannon-18 intercontinental ballistic missile weapon system.

"From the 'Mars 15' to the 'Mars Cannon 17' intercontinental missiles, North Korea's liquid intercontinental missile technology has reached its technological limit. However, the large size of liquid intercontinental missiles will limit their mobility, and refueling also takes time. Solidification is an inevitable development of North Korea's mobile intercontinental missiles. The emergence of the 'Mars Cannon 18' missile is not surprising," Li Wensheng analyzed and pointed out, "Solid intercontinental missiles have given North Korea a more reliable nuclear deterrence capability, giving North Korea more 'nuclear confidence' when confronting the United States."

Upgraded nuclear confrontation between North Korea and the United States

On the second day after Kim Jong Un's speech, Kurt Campbell, the Indo Pacific Coordinator of the US National Security Council who was visiting South Korea, stated on the 18th that the US strategic missile nuclear submarine was docked at Busan Port.

Campbell said at a press conference, "This is the first time in decades that a US nuclear strategic submarine has docked at Busan Port. With the establishment of the US South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group, cross departmental cooperation and efforts will continue in the long term." "We believe that reflecting the relevant will and commitment of the US is crucial."

Campbell did not disclose which nuclear submarine docked in South Korea, but the South Korean Ministry of Defense later confirmed that the submarine was the US Navy's Ohio class strategic missile nuclear submarine, Kentucky.

The Ohio class strategic missile nuclear submarine can carry up to 24 Trident II D5 submarine launched ballistic missiles, making it the world's largest nuclear submarine with the highest number of nuclear missiles. The missile can carry 6-14 nuclear warheads, with a maximum range of 12000 kilometers and a total strike yield of over 100 million tons, far exceeding the combined firepower released by countries during World War II. At present, the US Navy is equipped with 14 Ohio class nuclear submarines, of which the Pacific Fleet has 8.

The concealment of movements is a major characteristic of strategic missile nuclear submarines. Only by hiding their movements can they unleash their ability to launch nuclear missiles during wartime. Therefore, strategic missile nuclear submarines from various countries rarely openly dock in foreign ports. The United States strategic missile nuclear submarines dock in South Korea after a gap of forty years, which has attracted much attention from the outside world.

This move is considered an important measure by the United States to strengthen and extend nuclear deterrence. In April of this year, during South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol's visit to the United States, US President Biden stated that the United States would dispatch ballistic missile nuclear submarines to South Korea. At that time, the official website of the White House released a document titled the Washington Declaration, and the leaders of the two countries also announced the establishment of a new nuclear consultation group to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear issues, and strategic planning. The United States has pledged to deploy more strategic assets to South Korea, such as aircraft carriers, submarines, and strategic bombers, to strengthen its deterrence against North Korea.

It is worth mentioning that before the Kentucky nuclear submarine docked in South Korea, the US attack type nuclear submarine and cruise missile nuclear submarine also docked in South Korea. All types of active US nuclear submarines docked in South Korea in just six months, which is a rare occurrence in history.

In the view of analysts, the docking of the Kentucky nuclear submarine in South Korea is to coincide with the first meeting of the South Korean US nuclear consultation group held on the same day. According to Yonhap News Agency, the first meeting of the US South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group was held on the morning of the 18th at the Presidential Palace in Seoul. According to reports, this means that the Washington Declaration reached during the summit between South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol's visit to the United States and US President Biden in late April has begun to be effectively implemented, with profound significance.

This meeting was co chaired by Kim Tae hyo, the first director of the South Korean National Security Office, Kurt Campbell, the Indo Pacific Coordinator of the US National Security Council, and Kara Abercrombie, the Defense Policy and Arms Control Coordinator of the National Security Council. Defense and diplomatic officials from South Korea and the United States attended. The first meeting will discuss basic affairs such as the operation and system of the nuclear consultation group.

Li Chunfu, Deputy Director of the Center for Asian Studies at Nankai University, told The Paper that Kim Jong Un has made four public speeches since early July, which are very dense and rare. This indicates that North Korea is very concerned about the US and South Korea's strengthening of extended nuclear deterrence and the docking of nuclear submarines in South Korea. North Korea's response is also significant, and Kim Jong Un's public speeches and missile launch activities are responses from the North Korean side, practicing a policy of "super hard against tough".

Li Chunfu believes that the purpose of Jin and Zheng's speech discussing the possibility of a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States is to remind the United States and South Korea of the risk of nuclear containment in North Korea, namely the outbreak of a nuclear war or conflict. On the other hand, as North Korea's nuclear weapons strength increases, North Korea can go to war with the United States in the nuclear field, reminding the United States not to take nuclear risks.

"North Korea's test launch of a new nuclear missile and Kim Jong Un's multiple speeches also have domestic considerations, as July 27th is North Korea's' Victory Day of the War of Liberation ', which marks the signing of the North Korean Armistice Agreement. South Korea and the United States will hold related activities, and North Korea is expected to hold large-scale celebrations," said Lee Chun fu.

Regarding the docking of US nuclear submarines in South Korea and the first meeting of the US South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin expressed concern about the above developments at a regular press conference on July 6th. The essence of the Korean Peninsula issue is a political security issue. If one does not follow the correct path of promoting the establishment of a peace mechanism on the peninsula, but is obsessed with the wrong path of military deterrence and pressure, the situation on the peninsula will be difficult to overcome the security dilemma of tension and opposition. We urge the United States and South Korea to confront the crux of the issue and play a constructive role in the political resolution process of the Korean Peninsula issue.