What policies are expected to be implemented?, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have expressed their stance on the real estate market | market | policies

In the past week, the real estate market has received intensive policy positive signals.

After the Central Political Bureau meeting set the tone to "adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner" and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development clarified the direction of policy support, many regions immediately followed suit and took steps towards implementation. Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, four first tier cities, have successively stepped forward to make statements.

Which cities may benefit from the brewing benefits? What aspects will be covered again?

First tier cities have expressed their opinions one after another

On July 24th, the Central Political Bureau meeting requested timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies, utilizing policy toolboxes to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development immediately clarified the direction of policy efforts: vigorously supporting the demand for rigid and improved housing, further implementing policy measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for purchasing the first home, reducing the tax and fee for purchasing improved housing, and providing personal housing loans with "no need to subscribe for housing"; Continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, accelerate the delivery of project construction, and effectively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the people.

The latest statements from first tier cities also revolve around these directions.

On the evening of the 29th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development stated that it will adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, combine with the actual situation of the Beijing real estate market, work together with relevant departments to quickly implement the work, strongly support and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Beijing real estate market.

On the 30th, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau announced that it will combine the actual situation of the real estate market in Shenzhen, work with relevant departments, central agencies in Shenzhen, and various districts to implement and better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, solidly promote the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, effectively maintain the order of the real estate market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shenzhen real estate market.

On the 30th, the Guangzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau also stated that it will adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, seek truth from facts, and accelerate implementation. It will launch relevant policy measures as soon as possible based on the actual situation in Guangzhou, vigorously support and better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Guangzhou real estate market.

On the 31st, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development and the Shanghai Housing Management Bureau stated that they will adhere to the overall tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, implement policies tailored to the city, support the demand for rigid and improved housing, do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihoods, and stability, and promote the stable and healthy development of the Shanghai real estate market.

In the view of Yan Yuejin, the research director of E-House Research Institute, the timely follow-up and statements of first tier cities indicate that the expectations of policy relaxation are becoming clearer and the signals of relaxation are becoming clearer.

"This is the first time since 2017 that four first tier cities have made a concentrated statement, indicating a high degree of consistency in policy direction. The expressions in various regions are very similar, especially the expression of 'combining with the actual situation in each region'. Therefore, we believe that wherever there is a weakness in market transactions, it is an area where subsequent policies will be relaxed. Especially in reducing the threshold for purchasing a house, loan costs, and tax costs, it will be a key content for first tier cities to continue to relax." Yan Yuejin said.

What is in the policy toolbox?

In the process of significant changes in the current supply and demand relationship, where are the boundaries and trends of policy easing, as adjustments are imminent?

Industry insiders point out that the core measures of real estate regulation can be summarized as "purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, commercial restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, and public restrictions". These measures are all part of China's current restrictive real estate market regulation policies, and the combination of the "six restrictions" is also considered an important symbol of the previous round of real estate regulation.

The "Research Report on Housing Policies in First tier Cities" released by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute on the 31st analyzed key policies in four first tier cities, including purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, recognition standards for ordinary residential properties, and tax and fee policies.

——Purchase and loan restrictions policies

In terms of purchase restrictions, the report points out that the policies of the first tier cities are generally strict, which are reflected in local registered residence registration and registered residence registration outside the city, after divorce, commercial housing and housing purchase in specific areas. In terms of local registered residence purchase restrictions, Shenzhen is the most strict, and new home buyers also need to have social security payment conditions; In terms of purchase restrictions of registered residence in other places, Shanghai is the most strict, and single people are not qualified to buy houses.

In terms of loan restrictions, the report believes that first tier cities have also been subject to stricter restrictions on down payment ratios, mortgage interest rates, and other aspects, with more obvious manifestations in the area of second homes. Among them, the most popular policy of "buying a house and buying a loan" is reflected in all four first tier cities, resulting in many housing replacement needs not being able to enjoy discounts on their first home.

How will the policy of "buying houses without buying loans" be adjusted in the future? Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that first tier cities are likely to implement targeted measures such as "housing recognition without loan recognition", which will not only improve the market but also avoid stimulating the rise of housing prices.

"Cities like Beijing and Shanghai, although there has been some degree of market adjustment, their purchasing power is still relatively strong, so policies are unlikely to directly convert 'house and loan recognition' into 'comprehensive first homes'. It is possible to target a small group of people who are most affected by targeted easing, so the impact on the market is controllable." Zhang Dawei said.

——Tax and fee policies and "non ordinary residential" standards

The report analyzes from the perspective of tax and fee policies, and compared to second - and third tier cities nationwide, the tax burden of deed tax and value-added tax in first tier cities is relatively heavy. If these two types of taxes are adjusted in the future, transaction costs can be significantly reduced.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development's proposal of "tax reduction and exemption for the purchase of improved housing" is also in line with the announcement of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation in September last year on supporting personal income tax policies related to the purchase of housing by residents. For the homebuyers who "sell one buy one", individual income tax refunds will be implemented, with a maximum of full refunds.

"The statement from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development this time emphasizes the further implementation of tax and fee reductions for the purchase of improved housing, and it is expected that policy support for the demand for housing replacement will be further increased in the future." Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, believes.

Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out that there may be two adjustment directions for tax policies, except for the VAT exemption period in hot cities, which will be reduced from 5 years to 2 years, in order to reduce housing transaction costs; Another way is to optimize and adjust the recognition standards for non ordinary residential properties, such as canceling the total price recognition standard.

At present, the adjustment of non ordinary residential standards has also become a hot topic for house buyers. The report suggests that first tier cities have generally implemented slightly outdated standards for identifying ordinary housing, resulting in many housing transactions not being included in the category of ordinary housing. According to calculations, if the standards for determining unit types are relaxed, about 5% of homebuyers in first tier cities are expected to enjoy "transfer" discounts.

Chen Wenjing pointed out that although the adjustment of the current standard for identifying ordinary residential properties is conducive to better meeting the housing needs of residents, the difficulty lies in how to determine the unit price or total price standards for different projects in different areas. The price level also directly affects the range of beneficiaries and the strength of policies.

Dongwu Securities believes that a more likely policy adjustment would be to selectively introduce a package of measures in various regions, such as canceling the "housing and loan recognition" policy, adjusting the "non ordinary residential recognition standards", and reducing the "down payment ratio for second homes", in order to effectively release essential and improvement needs, and is likely to be combined with the pilot "one district, one policy" policy.