What is the crux of the suspension of the Black Sea Agricultural Products Export Agreement in Ukraine | Grain | Export

On July 17, Russia announced that it would suspend the implementation of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea ports, which means that the agreement to ensure Ukraine's export of food through the Black Sea is no longer valid. The agreement has been extended three times since it was signed last year, and now the suspension of the agreement will have a non-negligible impact on global food security and the Ukrainian crisis. Around the future fate of the agreement, the stakeholders play a game.

The agreement has been extended three times.

After the Ukraine crisis escalated on February 24 last year, agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia via Black Sea ports were disrupted. Through the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, Russia and Ukraine signed a parallel agreement in Istanbul, Turkey on July 22 last year to resume the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea port. According to the agreement, the parties agreed to set up a joint coordination center to provide security for the export and transportation of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products through the Black Sea, as well as to ensure the entry of Russian grain and fertilizer into the international market.

After the signing of the agreement, Russia repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the implementation of the agreement, saying that the agreement on the normalization of Russian food and fertilizer exports has not been fulfilled, and the implementation of this agreement will determine whether Russia will continue to participate in the agreement. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vershinin has pointed out that the normalization of Russian agricultural exports covers bank payments, transport logistics, insurance, financial activities and the normalization of ammonia transportation in the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline.

Since the agreement is valid for 120 days, after negotiation by all parties, the agreement was extended several times in November last year, March this year and May this year. The expiration date is July 17. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that the validity of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Outbound Agreement was suspended. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova also said on the same day that Russia has informed Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations that it will not extend the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports.

When talking about the reasons for suspending the agreement, Peskov still emphasized that the part of the agreement involving Russia has not been implemented, so the effect of the agreement has been suspended. But he also said that once the part of the agreement related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately resume the implementation of the agreement.

Ukrainian presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov said recently that President Zelensky hopes that Ukraine can continue to export food from Black Sea ports in the event of Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. Nikiforov also emphasized on social media that the agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea ports is a package agreement. Ukraine signed an agreement with the United Nations and Turkey, and Russia signed another agreement with the United Nations and Turkey, but Ukraine and Russia did not directly sign it.

Zelensky bluntly told the media that despite Russia's decision to suspend the Black Sea port agricultural product export agreement, Ukraine will continue to work hard to export food through the Black Sea. "This is an attempt by Russia to 'weaponise' the food crisis and disrupt the global food market," he said, adding that it could endanger the lives of people in many countries dependent on Ukraine for food.

Zelensky also said in a video speech that he has sent official letters to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary General Guterres, suggesting that the agreement should be continued. "Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey can jointly ensure the operation of the food corridor and the vetting of ships," Zelensky said ".

Many parties are looking for good offices.

Some political analysts believe that in addition to the official reasons, Russia's decision to suspend the agreement is also related to recent changes in Turkey's diplomatic posture. In May this year, Russia agreed to extend the agreement, which was regarded as one of the signs that helped Erdogan win the Turkish election. However, some recent Turkish actions have caused dissatisfaction with Russia one after another: first, Turkey handed over the Azov battalion personnel to the Ukrainian government on July 8, violating the relevant Russian-Turkish agreements; second, at the NATO Vilnius summit held this month, Turkey changed its previous position and agreed to Sweden's accession to NATO, which was regarded by Russia as a compromise with the United States and the West.

The international community reacted strongly to the suspension of the agreement. In addition to expressing regret, the United Nations, Turkey and other parties are also looking for opportunities to mediate, hoping that the future fate of the agreement will usher in a turning point.

Guterres said at the United Nations headquarters in New York that he deeply regrets Russia's decision to suspend the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports, and the United Nations will continue to work to find a solution.

In an interview with the media, Erdogan said that Turkey worked hard to save the agreement "until the last minute" and called it a "diplomatic achievement recorded in history". At the same time, he believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin still intends to renew the agreement and allow food exports from Ukraine. "I believe that Russian President Putin wants to continue this humanitarian bridge." He said he would hold talks with Putin ahead of his expected visit to Turkey in August and that it was still possible to reach a consensus on resuming the agreement.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on the 18th that China hopes that all parties concerned will properly resolve the issue of international food security through dialogue and consultation. China is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation with all parties to promote the formation of more international consensus and make positive contributions to ensuring world food security.

European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU will continue its efforts to ensure food security in poor countries.

Where will the agreement go?

Guterres believes that the Black Sea port agricultural products export agreement has previously played a huge role. The agreement ensures the safe passage of more than 32 million tons of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports. The World Food Program has delivered large quantities of agricultural products to support humanitarian operations to alleviate hunger in Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa and other regions. The agreement is also a "lifeline" for global food security ". At a time when food production and supply are being disrupted by conflict, climate change, energy prices and other factors, the agreement has helped food prices fall by more than 23% since March last year.

However, the Russian side does not fully share this view. The Russian side pointed out that the agreement did not reflect humanitarian values, but "became a tool for commercial food exports from Ukraine to food-rich countries. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 17th that a total of 32.8 million tons of agricultural products were shipped during the implementation of the agreement, of which more than 70 per cent were shipped to high-and middle-income countries, including EU countries, while the poorest countries received less than 3 per cent, only about 920000 tons.

Officials of the World Food Program said that Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of agricultural products. After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, global food prices continued to rise. Objectively speaking, the signing and implementation of the agreement have played a positive role in promoting the decline of global food prices. The suspension of implementation of the future agreement may have an impact on East African countries. Guterres also believes that if food and fertilizer cannot be transported to the global market in time, it will inevitably have an impact on food production and food prices.

According to recent media reports, since Russia suspended the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports, the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans, the world's major grains, have risen to varying degrees. In the future, the impact of the suspension of the agreement will continue to ferment.

On where the agreement will go in the future, Putin said on the 19th: "We are not against the agreement itself, especially given its importance to the global food market. Of course, we will consider the possibility of restarting it, but on only one condition, the previously agreed principles of Russian participation in the agreement, the West without exception, the important thing is to fully consider the actual implementation." This speech once again revealed the attitude of the Russian side, that is, if the content of the agreement involving the Russian side can be fully implemented, the Russian side will consider resuming the implementation of the agreement.

Analysts pointed out that in essence, the agreement is only a temporary countermeasure of compromise by all parties, not a fundamental solution to the global food crisis. Moreover, the agreement is not legally binding, and if the attitude of the United States and the West remains the same, it will be difficult to renew the agreement.