What factors are dragging down growth?, The economic growth rate of 10 provinces in the first half of the year was lower than that of the first quarter provinces | real estate | economy

Release time:Apr 14, 2024 12:43 PM

All 31 provinces have released their economic data for the first half of the year, and most provinces have continued to recover. However, there are still 10 provinces whose economic growth rate in the first half of the year was lower than that in the first quarter, indicating that they encountered challenges in the second quarter.

These 10 provinces are Jilin, Ningxia, Tianjin, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Guangxi. Among them, the growth rate of Guangxi in the first half of the year decreased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter, Shaanxi decreased by 1.6 percentage points, Henan decreased by 1.2 percentage points, and Ningxia decreased by 1 percentage point.

What is the reason for the decline in the growth rate of these 10 provinces in the second quarter?

Insufficient demand is dragging down industrial production

Among these 10 provinces where the growth rate in the first half of the year has declined compared to the first quarter, some provinces were greatly impacted by the epidemic in the same period last year, and the base fluctuations under special circumstances have affected the changes in the first quarter and the first half of this year. For example, in the first half of last year, Jilin increased by -6% and Tianjin increased by 0.4%. However, most provinces experienced challenges in their economies in the second quarter.

Chongqing's GDP grew by 4.7% in the first quarter of this year, while it grew by 4.6% in the first half of the year. Recently, Chongqing Daily published an article by the Chongqing Development and Reform Commission interpreting the economic situation in Chongqing in the first half of the year. According to the analysis of relevant officials from the Chongqing Development and Reform Commission, Chongqing's economy has achieved a good start in the first three months, with a deep correction in April, overall stabilization in May, and accelerated recovery in June.

According to official data, Chongqing's industrial added value increased by 6% in the first quarter of this year. However, from January to April, this indicator decreased to only 1.9%. Out of the 11 major industries, only 1 has seen an increase in growth compared to the other 10. Among them, the added value of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 12.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the first quarter's -9.6%.

According to the database of the National Bureau of Statistics, First Financial has sorted out the main industrial product production in Chongqing, among which laptops and cars are the most important products. In March, Chongqing produced 8.0067 million units of microcomputer equipment and 193900 vehicles; However, in April, the production of microcomputer equipment decreased to 5.2019 million units and the production of automobiles decreased to 158900 units.

The aforementioned person in charge analyzed that from a global perspective, the international environment is complex and ever-changing, the international geopolitical game is becoming more complex and intense, the risk of global economic recession is increasing, the growth rate of developed country economies is slowing down, and the uncertainty of external demand is a significant drag on Chongqing's economic development.

The person in charge also stated that from an industrial perspective, the automotive industry has entered a period of accelerated transformation, and the ceiling effect of traditional electronic product consumption is gradually emerging. The driving force of domestic infrastructure and real estate needs to be further released.

Affected by insufficient demand, the industrial economic growth of Henan and Shaanxi experienced a cliff like transition from positive to negative in the second quarter. As a result, the economic growth rate of the two provinces has significantly decreased. In the first half of this year, the GDP of Shaanxi and Henan increased by 3.7% and 3.8% respectively, while in the first quarter, they increased by 5.3% and 5%, respectively, with a decrease of 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points.

According to the database of the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of Henan's large-scale industries increased by 3.1% in March, but decreased by 7.3% in April. The Henan Bureau of Statistics announced that due to factors such as sustained weakening of market demand, production in some industries such as chemical and building materials has slowed down. From January to April, the added value of traditional pillar industries decreased by 1.0%. In the first quarter, traditional pillar industries increased by 3.1%.

Shaanxi Industry also saw a decline in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shaanxi Province increased by 3.2% year-on-year, but only increased by 0.3% in the first half of the year. After April, the industrial and economic situation in Shaanxi transformed, with industrial added value increasing by 0.7%, -4.0%, and -2.1% in April, May, and June, respectively.

From the perspective of three major categories, in the first quarter of this year, Shaanxi's mining industry grew by 2.3%, manufacturing industry grew by 3.6%, and the production and supply industry of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew by 7.7%. However, in the first half of the year, the growth rates were 1.7%, -0.4%, and -5.6%, respectively. In the first half of the year, the added value of energy industries above designated size increased by 0.9%, while the added value of non energy industries above designated size decreased by 0.6%.

However, as various regions take some measures to stabilize growth. The industrial and economic situation in these provinces is gradually improving. The added value of large-scale industries in Henan increased by -2.1% and 0.6% in May and June, respectively. In May and June, Chongqing produced 6.9244 million and 7.323 million units of microcomputer equipment, as well as 158600 and 185700 vehicles, respectively, showing a trend of recovery and recovery.

The decline in real estate investment has a significant impact

In the first half of this year, Guangxi's GDP grew by 2.8%, while in the first quarter it grew by 4.9%, with the largest decline among these 10 provinces. The main factors contributing to the economic downturn in Guangxi are different.

Wu Jian, director of the Regional Economic Research Institute of the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to First Finance and Economics, from the perspective of investment, consumption and import and export, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Guangxi increased by 3.8% year on year, foreign trade exports increased significantly by 51.7%, and fixed assets investment decreased by 21.1% year on year. This indicates that investment is the main reason for the significant decline in Guangxi's economic growth rate in the second quarter.

Wu Jian further analyzed that from the perspective of fixed assets investment, Guangxi's investment in the first quarter only declined by 3.7% year on year, while that in the first half of the year declined by 21.1%, mainly due to the decline in investment in real estate development. In the first half of the year, investment in real estate development in Guangxi decreased by 43.4% year-on-year, while the year-on-year decline in the first quarter was 31.8%, and the second quarter showed an accelerating decline trend.

Moreover, Wu Jian stated that in terms of industries, the growth rate of Guangxi's three industries in the first half of the year was lower than that in the first quarter, but the second industry experienced the largest decline in growth rate, with a decrease of 3.9 percentage points. The secondary industry includes industry and construction. The industrial growth rate in the first half of the year decreased by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter. It can be seen that the construction industry is the main driver of the decline in the growth rate of the second quarter's second industry.

Not only Guangxi, but also some provinces have seen a significant decline in real estate development investment since the beginning of this year. According to statistics from First Financial, only 8 provinces in China maintained growth in real estate development investment in the first half of this year, with Tianjin, Guangxi, and Yunnan experiencing declines of 46.7%, 43.4%, and 33%, respectively. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, and Qinghai have also experienced a decline of over 20%.

In the three carriages of driving the economy, compared to consumption and import and export, investment has a stronger driving force and the government can take more measures. However, the significant decline in real estate development investment has weakened the impact of investment on the economy.

In the first half of this year, industrial investment in Tianjin increased by 15.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from January to May, driving the city's investment growth by 3.7 percentage points, accounting for 32.8% of the city's investment. However, fixed assets investment in Tianjin still fell 16.0% year on year.

Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics did not interpret the situation of investment in real estate development when interpreting fixed assets investment in the first half of the year. Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics said that investment in some key areas grew rapidly: industrial investment grew faster, investment in social fields and high-tech industries maintained rapid growth, and investment in primary industry grew faster.

According to the interpretation of the Yunnan Bureau of Statistics, except for real estate development investment and transportation investment, the total investment in other industries increased by 6.7%, maintaining a reasonable range. In the first half of the year, fixed assets investment in Yunnan Province decreased by 5.0% year on year. Real estate development investment decreased by 33.0%, and transportation investment decreased by 16.0%.

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