What does the growth rate of China's imports and exports in May mean? Total value | year-on-year | import and export
China's foreign trade data for May was released on the 7th. The year-on-year growth rate of 0.5% of the total import and export value has significantly decreased from 8.9% in April, and exports have even decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. However, analysts believe that a sharp drop in data does not necessarily mean that China's foreign trade competitiveness has weakened.
The sharp decline in foreign trade growth rate is related to the higher base in the same period last year. Last May, China's import and export growth rate reached 9.6%.
The international market is also one of the reasons for the sudden warmth and coldness. Although the World Trade Organization recently released the "Barometer of Goods Trade" report, which raised the global goods trade prosperity index, suggesting that the global goods trade situation may improve in the second quarter, according to data from South Korea, which is known as the "canary" of the global economy, global trade is still difficult to be optimistic at present.
According to official statistics, South Korean exports decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in May, while imports decreased by 14%. This reflects that under the influence of factors such as high inflation levels and the prolonged escalation of the Ukraine crisis, the global economic recovery is still faltering, and trade growth is therefore being dragged down.
Analysts believe that considering the global economic and trade situation, China's current foreign trade performance is already stable.
From the perspective of import and export, on the one hand, the export of key markets and advantageous products remains resilient. For example, in the first five months, China's exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, increased by 16.4 year-on-year, and exports to the EU, the second largest trading partner, increased by 2.4 year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall level of China's exports in the same period.
According to official data, China's automobile exports in the first five months amounted to 266.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.1%; The export of labor-intensive products reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, solar cells and other "new three types" are becoming important support for China's exports.
On the other hand, imports have steadily increased. In the first five months, China's imports increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and in May, imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year. This indicates that with the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy, imports are also steadily expanding.
From the perspective of market players, the import and export of China's private enterprises reached 8.86 trillion billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 13.1 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 52.8 percent of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, the export growth rate of private enterprises reached 16.2.
Private enterprises have always been known for their keen sense of market and flexible response. The continued growth of imports and exports of private enterprises reflects the further strengthening of China's foreign trade resilience.
Some analysts also pointed out that the high growth of China's foreign trade in April was not normal. If the performance of foreign trade in May is measured by April data, it will be biased. In the context of the overall downturn in global trade, we should have reasonable expectations for the future trend of China's foreign trade.
Citigroup Greater China chief economist Yu Xiangrong said, China's import and export growth rate of 8.9 in April behind a number of one-time factors, such as the impact of the epidemic in the second half of last year, some orders were not delivered, this year's Spring Festival after the "rush" effect.
Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that considering the successive release of the effects of the official foreign trade stabilization policy, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve 2% growth in US dollars this year. "This is already a good result".
