What does it mean?, Less 1 kilometer error, predict typhoon path | forecast | typhoon
The typhoon is coming again.
According to the latest forecast from the Fujian Provincial Meteorological Observatory, based on the current speed of the typhoon, "Du Suri" will make landfall along the coast from Xiamen to Hui'an in Fujian around 90 o'clock this morning. Although it is unlikely that "Du Suri" will make landfall in Zhejiang this time, it is already a "super typhoon" at sea and has brought strong winds and rain to the eastern part of Zhejiang early on.
Nowadays, is it difficult to predict a typhoon? Where do typhoons that have landed in China in history prefer to land? How many "super typhoons" have Zhejiang encountered? Chao News has compiled this "typhoon big data".
Typhoons have existed since ancient times, how did the ancients know?
Typhoon is one of the most important extreme weather disasters affecting China. It develops from low-pressure eddies on the tropical or subtropical ocean surface and visits the coastal areas of China almost every year.
The climate phenomenon of typhoons has existed since ancient times. How did ancient people predict typhoons?
Time passes and technology advances. Modern humans already have more scientific and accurate means of meteorological forecasting and prediction. We can not only predict whether and when typhoons will come, but also calculate how they will come and how strong they will be.
Especially in the past two decades, the errors in typhoon path forecasting in China have gradually decreased and have now reached the world's leading level.
The movement of the typhoon is no longer so mysterious
Before 2001, China only conducted 48 hour typhoon forecasting services; In 2003, the prediction error of 24-hour typhoon paths in China was 190 kilometers, which was approximately equal to the width of the northern mouth of the Taiwan Strait; In 2022, this error has been reduced to around 65 kilometers.
The increasingly accurate predictions are affecting the production and life of each and every one of us.
What does an error of 1 kilometer mean? Research has shown that for a single landfall typhoon, a reduction of 1 kilometer in 24-hour path prediction error can reduce direct economic losses caused by disasters by approximately 97 million yuan. The direct economic losses reduced by the 125km error in the past 20 years are equivalent to 1.5 times the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Hangzhou in the first quarter of 2023.
Although humans are currently measuring the path of typhoons more accurately, the ability to predict typhoon intensity has not improved significantly. The main issue is that there is still a lack of understanding among humans about the mechanisms of typhoon changes and ocean temperature changes.
Not all typhoons, after landfall, are still at typhoon level
According to the classification criteria for tropical cyclones, only those with a maximum average wind speed near the center greater than 32.7 meters per second are considered true typhoons, while those with a maximum average wind speed greater than 41.5 meters per second and 51 meters per second are classified as strong typhoons and super strong typhoons, respectively.
From 1949 to 2022, there were a total of 881 tropical cyclones that made landfall in China, with 292 landfall intensities of typhoons and above; The place with the highest number of tropical cyclone landings is Guangdong; Taiwan, Zhejiang, and Guangxi are the top three provinces with the highest proportion of typhoon level tropical cyclone landfall intensity.
Finally, do you still remember these tropical cyclones that have made landfall in Zhejiang over the years?
