What are the impacts and trends? An article on the release of data on the operation of the national economy in July | Economy | National Economy

On the morning of August 15th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to announce the operation of the national economy in July. Overall, economic data for July showed that the service industry maintained rapid growth, industrial operations remained stable, market sales continued to recover, and the overall national economy continued to recover. What impact and support will the July economic data bring to the upcoming economic recovery and policy adjustments?

News 1+1 invites macroeconomist and President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Liu Yuanchun, to jointly monitor the economic data for July, its impact and trends.

Announcement of the National Economic Operation in July

The National Bureau of Statistics released national economic performance data for July. What specific data are there?

How do you view this series of data?

Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: ① The economic data in July confirmed a statement in the Central Political Bureau resolution on July 24th, which stated that "economic recovery is a process of wave like development and tortuous progress.". Under the combination of factors such as further deterioration of the overall external environment and deep adjustment of the real estate market, there has been a series of adjustments in July data, which is within the normal expected range and also within the scope of sustained economic adjustment.

② In terms of various types of data, especially the three carriages and the two pillars on the supply side, there are a series of highlights in the overall situation of a slowdown in growth rate, with some ups and downs. These highlights not only demonstrate the resilience and resilience of China's economy, but more importantly, the sustained efforts in high-tech, green innovation and other fields, indicating that the pillars of the entire economy are transforming and continuously rising. This is a very important aspect to be seen.

③ At the same time, it can be seen that some policies have actually begun to achieve certain results in the employment data of migrant workers and social restoration data. Although the policy has just been released and is still being continuously promoted, in terms of the overall market acceptance, it has already played a certain role in local areas and local relief. So although the July data may differ from expectations, it is important to see some structural changes.

Economic recovery and development in the second half of the year

What are the advantages and disadvantages of the external environment?

Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: We will find that there are still many bright spots at present. For example, ① the world's acceptance of China's current green innovation and high-tech innovation is continuously increasing, mainly reflected in the sustained growth rate of our solar cells and new energy vehicle exports. ② The overall trend of commodity prices has a certain deviation from the price trend of domestic finished products in the international market, which is a good boost to the competitiveness of our current finished products The current emerging markets have gone through a very difficult period, especially some emerging markets with a relatively large proportion of trade with us, which may slow down in the second half of the year. These aspects are still very favorable for us at present.

Of course, we will still see that the overall world is currently in a process of decline, and at the same time, Europe and America are likely to enter a recession stage in the second half of the year. Therefore, their overall market demand is still very high, which is a pressure for us. Of course, there is also a more important pressure, which is that some of the suppression by the United States has risen to a new level, which will also have a certain impact on our high-tech exports and development.

Recent package of economic policies

How to make policies work together?

Recently, a series of new policy measures have been introduced at the national level. How to make policies work together?

Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: ① It is important to grasp the main contradictions and main points of our entire economy at present, so that policies can focus on the main contradictions and main points of contradictions and avoid being too broad.

② Strengthening the unified guidance of the Party on some major policies at present requires the analysis and evaluation of special policies and the promotion of large-scale policies.

③ The design of various policies must focus on the current problem of insufficient domestic demand, especially in the short term, and cannot overly emphasize other goals.

Economic recovery and development in the second half of the year

Are there any stronger policy tools available?

Macroeconomist Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: There is no doubt that there are more policies in place, as some of the policies currently in place may not be enough to cope with the new pressures. Especially from the current reactions of some market entities, further efforts are needed. So in this round of policies, we are actually required to have forward-looking layouts to enhance the synergy and accuracy of our policies. This is a very important focus, and of course, increasing efforts is a more important focus. In terms of promoting consumption in the future, it is very important to implement the resolutions of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau, and to increase residents' income in multiple directions and measures. Expanding consumption through increasing income is an unbreakable path.

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