What are the consequences of "nuclear to nuclear"? Poland hopes to deploy US nuclear weapons domestically. NATO | Poland | United States

After Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Poland once again expressed its desire to deploy US nuclear weapons domestically.

On July 1st, the White House spokesperson did not comment at a press conference on Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky's invitation to the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland. According to a report by Russian news agency on June 30th, Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky stated during a two-day EU summit in Brussels that Warsaw is actively seeking to join NATO's nuclear sharing program.

The B61 nuclear bomb developed by the United States is the main tactical nuclear weapon equipped by the United States.

Polish fighter jets can be modified to drop nuclear bombs

Moravitsky stated that due to Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, Poland has requested to join NATO's nuclear sharing program.

In fact, this is not the first time that Polish officials have publicly expressed their desire to deploy US nuclear weapons on their homeland. In September last year, Polish President Duda stated in a media interview that Poland has held talks with the United States on the possibility of joining the nuclear sharing program.

It is worth mentioning that NATO held a nuclear exercise codenamed "Resolute Noon" in October last year, and the Polish military participated in the exercise, but only as an auxiliary role, not as one of the members who actually used nuclear weapons.

Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's nuclear deterrence policy that allows NATO member states that do not have nuclear weapons and are not prepared to develop them to use nuclear weapons. The focus of this concept is that these countries participate in the throwing of nuclear weapons when using them. The nuclear weapons deployed by the United States in NATO member countries participating in nuclear sharing are mainly managed by the US military, and non NATO member countries deployed with nuclear weapons participate in related combat intelligence, command, reconnaissance, and other activities. Some of the nuclear weapons stored by the United States in Europe are delivered by NATO countries. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy bear this responsibility, while the United States is responsible for delivering nuclear weapons stored in Türkiye and Italy. However, the final decision on the use of nuclear weapons by these non nuclear member states remains in the hands of the United States.

At present, the United States has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye. In June 2021, the website of the Nuclear Weapons Project of the Institute for Peace and Security Policy of Hamburg University in Germany showed that the United States had 100 B-61 nuclear bombs in its military bases in Europe and Türkiye.

As part of its security proposal, Russia called on the United States to withdraw these nuclear weapons in 2021, but was rejected by the United States and NATO.

At present, the United States may have completed the tactical nuclear weapon upgrade plan in Europe and Türkiye. The US Political Daily reported in October last year, citing diplomatic documents and sources familiar with the situation, that the US is accelerating the deployment of more precise tactical nuclear weapons to NATO bases in Europe. The latest version of the B61-12 nuclear bomb was scheduled to arrive in Europe for deployment in December last year, and according to the original plan, this tactical nuclear weapon should be deployed in Europe in the spring of 2023. Two insiders revealed that the deployment time may be further ahead of the time shown in the documents.

B61-12 is the latest model of the B61 nuclear bomb family, equipped with new guidance components and higher hit accuracy. The Political Daily reported that the B61-12 nuclear bomb deployed in Europe can be carried by fighter jets and bombers from the United States and other NATO member countries.

"If Poland joins NATO's nuclear sharing, the United States should also deploy the B61 series of nuclear bombs and not deploy strategic bombers, intercontinental missiles, and other nuclear weapons or delivery platforms. The Polish Air Force's F-16 and future F-35 will be modified to meet the needs of dropping B61 nuclear bombs," military expert Han Dong told The Paper.

The F-35 fighter jet has the ability to drop nuclear bombs, and Poland has spent $4.8 billion to purchase 32 F-35A stealth fighters.

At present, the main equipment of the Polish Air Force includes 48 F-16s, 28 MiG-29 fighter jets, 18 Su-22 fighter bombers, and training aircraft. In recent years, in order to enhance the combat power of the air force, Poland has accelerated the pace of purchasing new fighter jets. In 2020, Poland spent 4.8 billion US dollars to purchase 32 F-35A stealth fighter jets. According to the plan, the first F-35A will be delivered to the Polish air force in 2024.

In addition to aircraft capable of dropping nuclear bombs, joining the nuclear sharing mechanism also requires relevant ground facilities. The US military website "Warzone" published an article stating that if Poland wants to physically store nuclear bombs within its territory, it needs to build necessary security facilities and implement other relevant security and safety policies and protocols.

In order to enhance military relations with the United States, Poland has purchased a large amount of weapons and equipment from the United States in recent years, including M1A2 main battle tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and Hamas rocket launchers, and actively participated in the United States' anti missile deployment plan in Europe. On March 21st of this year, the establishment ceremony of the US Army's permanent base in Poland was held at a military base in Poznan, Poland. The Polish Ministry of Defense stated that this is the first permanent base of the US military in Poland, and currently, the US has eight permanent bases in Europe.

Will the United States deploy nuclear weapons in Poland?

Poland's pursuit of joining NATO's nuclear sharing program is a direct response to Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus. "The final decision will depend on the United States and NATO partners. We announce our willingness to take swift action on this matter," Moravitsky said. "We don't want to sit idly by as Putin escalates various threats."

The US authorities have not responded to this. John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council, told the media, "I have nothing to say, and there is no such dialogue that can be shared with you in press releases or verbally." Kirby added that the United States "does not discuss the deployment of nuclear systems" as a principle.

On June 16th, Russian President Putin announced that Russia has delivered the promised first part of its nuclear devices to Belarus, and the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will be completed by the end of this year.

It is currently unclear in which area of Belarus Russia's nuclear warheads will be stored, and Russia will continue to control these warheads in the future.

At present, the tactical ballistic missile "Iskandar-M" capable of carrying nuclear warheads has been handed over to Belarus. Russian sources say that the Iskandar missile has a range of 500 kilometers. Belarus stated that the Su-25 attack aircraft has been modified to carry this type of warhead, with a range of up to 1000 kilometers.

Reuters reported that if nuclear weapons were launched from a major Belarusian air force base located on the outskirts of Minsk, these carriers capable of carrying nuclear warheads could put almost the entire Eastern Europe, including many NATO member states, as well as cities such as Berlin and Stockholm, within their strike range.

RIA Novosti reported on July 1 that Konstantin Sokolov, deputy director of the Russian Institute of Geopolitical Issues, believes that Moravitsky's words are mainly political rather than military. In fact, this move will significantly shorten the time for warplanes carrying nuclear weapons to fly to Russia. This is an attempt to put pressure on Moscow. He believes that Poland's accession to the nuclear sharing program has nothing to do with Russia's decision to deploy nuclear weapons. Poland has been making this demand for a long time, and the actions of Russia and Belarus are only an excuse for them.

Alexander Gusev, a professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that the United States will not deploy nuclear weapons in Poland in the foreseeable future because of the upcoming US presidential election and a series of problems arising from the US involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Another obstacle to the deployment of US nuclear weapons in Poland may be the lack of experts in Warsaw who can maintain the nuclear weapons. Once deployed, American experts will be needed to maintain them.

An arms control expert analyzed by The Paper that Biden is a leader who leans towards arms control in the United States. As soon as he took office, he announced the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years. He is also cautious about the proposal of Japan and South Korea to join nuclear sharing, and has not made a decision to redeploy nuclear weapons in East Asia. Therefore, during Biden's term, he will basically not agree to Poland joining NATO nuclear sharing.

"If the United States deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Poland, it will further escalate Europe's nuclear confrontation, and the competition for tactical nuclear weapons will become increasingly fierce," said the military controller.

The United States has not responded strongly to Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. On June 9th, Kobe, the strategic communication coordinator of the White House National Security Council, stated that the United States has not seen any signs that the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus poses a risk of nuclear war.