Wagner's Advance towards the Suwauki Corridor: Is it military deterrence or preparation for the outbreak of conflict? Russia | Wagner | Suvauki Corridor
According to today's Russian report, on July 31, the Belarusian mechanized brigade has started joint training with the coaches of the "Wagner" private military company. The training content includes coordinated actions of troops, platoons, and companies. The training focuses on conducting combat operations under modern warfare conditions, including active defense exercises, ensuring survivability on the battlefield, and the use of drones.
Joint training between White Russian troops and Wagner. Source: Russia Today
According to the British Guardian and Russia Today, on July 29 local time, Polish Prime Minister Morawitzki said that more than 100 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus were moving towards the Suwauki Corridor, and that this was a further manifestation of the Wagner mercenaries' mixed attack on Polish territory.
The Suwauki Corridor, 70 kilometers long, is located between the border of Lithuania and Poland, separating Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This is also the only land connection between the Baltic States and other EU members.
On July 29, CCTV quoted Russia Today as reporting that on the 28th local time, Polish Defense Minister Bouashczak announced that Poland planned to expand the size of its army to deal with Wagner troops deployed in Belarus. Meanwhile, the number of active military personnel in Poland has increased from 172000 to 300000, and Poland plans to increase defense spending to 4% of its gross domestic product.
After the mutiny that caught the world's attention, Wagner had a new move. Who should be the most nervous among neighboring countries when new movements move downwards? Is it possible for Wagner to launch armed operations in the Suwauki Corridor? What impact will it have on the situation? In this regard, Chao News reporters interviewed Gao Xiaochuan, Director of the Center for Central and Eastern European Studies at East China Normal University, Xin Hua, Director of the European Union Research Center at Shanghai Foreign Studies University and Deputy Secretary General of the Shanghai European Society, as well as Gou Liwu, Assistant Researcher at the School of Marxism at Tongji University and Young Researcher at the Russia Russia Research Center at East China Normal University.
Poland's geopolitical security pressure doubles
Gao Xiaochuan pointed out that after the Wagner mercenary war was quelled and transferred to Belarus, Poland faced a sharp increase in geopolitical security pressure. This is not only related to the security crisis after the earthquake in the European geopolitical plate caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also related to the historical grievances between Poland and Russia. Of course, the ongoing border refugee crisis between Poland and Belarus in recent times is also directly related.
Since the end of 2021, the refugee crisis at the border between Poland and Belarus has been ongoing. With the support of the European Union, the Polish government has taken strict measures to guard against refugees on the border between Poland and Belarus, mainly from the Middle East. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland's strategic geographical importance has been significantly improved, and it has become the European country that absorbs the most Ukrainian refugees.
In the Central and Eastern European region of Europe, the complexity of ethnic relations and the factors of neighboring powers determine the long-standing tradition of mercenaries.
Gao Xiaochuan analyzed that Wagner mercenaries performed well in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After the war subsided and moved to the western region of Belarus, Poland, a large country in central and eastern Europe, became more alert to them, fearing that Wagner personnel would help illegal immigrants enter Polish territory, thereby undermining Poland's stability.
Gao Xiaochuan pointed out, "This is also the main concern publicly expressed by the Polish Prime Minister to the outside world. As a NATO East Wing power, Poland's role in regional security and its geopolitical role in the bloc confrontation of the Eurasian continent are the first to bear the brunt. Therefore, regarding Wagner's new trends, it is evident from the Polish Prime Minister's statement and Poland's military increase on the Polish White border in June that they have a sense of potential geopolitical security crisis."
Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky source CCTV news
Xin Hua believes that Poland, Lithuania, and Russia have accumulated historical ethnic grudges, and there is no geographical barrier between the two countries and Belarus. Under modern war conditions, if Wagner wants to launch an attack on the two countries, it can sweep in an instant. "Therefore, Wagner's latest developments are bound to make both countries very nervous."
Opportunities implied in tense situations
Gou Liwu told Chao News reporters that Wagner's entry into Belarus, shrouded in dark clouds over Poland and Lithuania, actually contained opportunities.
Firstly, the more than a hundred Wagner mercenaries moving towards the Suwauki Corridor are not enough to pose a direct threat to Poland and Lithuania, and their influence is even lower than that of refugees on the Polish Belarus border. As early as early July, Poland had already mobilized over 1000 soldiers to the eastern border area. During the refugee crisis in Poland, in order to prevent refugee smuggling, Poland was heavily guarded in border areas and built a separation wall last year.
Secondly, Wagner's entry into Belarus has become an important opportunity for Poland and Lithuania to enhance their defense capabilities and bring them closer to the United States and NATO. After joining the European Union and NATO, especially since the populist party Law and Justice came to power in 2015, Poland has positioned itself as a medium-sized power, actively participating in European and international affairs, and is seen as an emerging power in Europe, gradually transforming into a regional power.
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, Poland became one of the countries that received the most Ukrainian refugees and gave the most support to Ukraine. It is also an important hub and front position for NATO and EU military assistance to Ukraine. Poland's positive stance on Ukraine has received a positive response from the United States, with 10000 US troops stationed in Poland, twice the number deployed in 2020. Although the United States has not yet established a permanent base in Poland, the Polish government has been actively striving for it for many years. After Russia deployed nuclear missiles in Belarus, Poland immediately requested to join NATO's nuclear sharing program. In fact, as early as September last year, Poland had already joined the program and actively engaged with the United States.
"Therefore, for Wagner's actions, Poland is clearly actively creating public opinion and continuing to sell war anxiety to exaggerate Wagner's threat. For example, Polish Prime Minister Morawitzki claimed that 'about 100000 Wagner soldiers are moving towards the Polish border', mainly by creating momentum to attract the attention of the United States and NATO to provide more military funding assistance, and Lithuania is also one of the beneficiaries," added Gou Liwu.
The likelihood of armed conflict is low
Although the Polish Prime Minister has shown clear anxiety about Wagner's movements, several experts believe that there is little possibility of Wagner launching armed actions in the Suwaukee Corridor in the near future.
"The strategic significance of the Suvauki Corridor to Russia, NATO, and the European Union is self-evident, both in terms of geographical location and geopolitical perspective. It plays an important role in playing a strategic trump card, especially at critical points of geopolitical security crises or group confrontations." This is undoubtedly one of Wagner's main strategic goals for moving to Belarus, "analyzed Gao Xiaochuan.
The Suwauki Corridor is located in Poland, a member country of NATO. Due to its important geostrategic corridor status, the Lithuanian Iron Wolf Army and US military have been stationed in cities near Lithuania on the north side of the corridor for a long time. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last February, the NATO Rapid Response Force has also deployed around the corridor, with the strategic goal of quickly controlling the region if necessary. It can be seen that the strategic importance and military deployment of the Suwauki Corridor have been strengthened after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Gao Xiaochuan told Chao News reporters that although Wagner has a reputation and has raised concerns among Poland and other European powers after moving to the western region of Belarus, the Suwauki Corridor will currently become an important strategic area for NATO to compete with Russia. "The possibility of Wagner launching military operations here is very small."
According to the NATO Collective Defense Charter, military actions against member states are military actions against NATO. Once Wagner launches an attack on Poland or Lithuania in the Suwauki Corridor, it will be a prelude to potential military conflict between NATO and Russia.
Gao Xiaochuan believes that Wagner himself does not have the strength to fight against NATO forces, and when the international community generally expects an early end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the legitimacy of Wagner's provocation of military action is almost zero. "It is not ruled out that Wagner can be used as a military deterrent and as a bargaining chip for Russian Ukrainian peace talks."
A Wagner Soldier Image Source Today Russia
Xin Hua said that Wagner would not really take the initiative to invade the territory of Poland and Lithuania at present, but more likely as a tactic of military intimidation to frighten Poland and Lithuania. "Even if Wagner really wants to use force, before that, Putin will definitely make a clear cut with Wagner to avoid direct conflict with the United States. In addition, Xin Hua believes that if Poland and Lithuania form seemingly non-governmental" volunteer army "armed forces to enter Ukraine for war, Wagner's actions in Belarus will further increase.".
Gou Liwu emphasized that the target of Russia's special military action is Ukraine, with the aim of "demilitarizing" and "de Nazizing" Ukraine. In addition, Poland and Lithuania have NATO member states, so the likelihood of both countries being attacked by Wagner's armed forces is very low.
Wagner's action is difficult to influence the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Gou Liwu stated that Wagner's entry into the Suwauki Corridor has already touched the sensitive nerves of Poland and Lithuania. If Wagner engages in armed operations here, it will inevitably worsen the security situation in the region.
"But even if Wagner has armed actions, it is difficult to affect the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict." Gou Liwu told the Chao News reporter that behind the special military action between Russia and Ukraine is actually the game between Russia and NATO.
Since the outbreak of the special military operation, NATO member countries have provided almost all assistance to Ukraine, including mercenaries, personnel training, weapons and equipment. To some extent, it can be understood that NATO indirectly participated in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
"But overall, both Russia and NATO have shown great restraint in this conflict."
It is worth noting that during the G20 summit in Bali, a Russian missile landed on a farm near Ukraine in Poland, resulting in the death of two Poles. Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of launching "terrorism" and called on NATO to take action against Russia's attacks on collective security. But soon, US President Biden stated that these two missiles were unlikely to have been launched from Russia from their trajectory; The Pentagon also stated that it has not yet obtained conclusive evidence that the attack was caused by Russia. Polish President Duda also responded cautiously, although it is unclear who launched these missiles, it is "very likely" that the missiles were manufactured by Russia.
Previously, a missile exploded in Poland, causing two deaths. Source: Global Network
Gou Liwu concluded that "although Ukraine strongly advocates the expansion of the situation, the United States and Russia do not want the situation to worsen, so Wagner's actions are difficult to affect the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict."
