Wagner has indeed started to take action, and Poland is in a hurry

Source author: Niu Danqin

After the failure of the Wagner mutiny, which country was the most tense when it was transferred to Belarus?

It's not Russia, it's not Ukraine, it's not Belarus, it's Poland.

Because Poland bears the brunt. Polish Prime Minister Morawitzki issued an alert on the 29th. According to information available to Poland, over 100 Wagner mercenaries have been deployed to the border between Belarus and Poland and are moving towards the Suwaukee Corridor.

According to him, they are premeditating a "mixed attack" on Poland.

It is necessary to mention the strategic location of the Suwauki Corridor.

The Suwauki Corridor is located between the border of Lithuania and Poland, with a length of 70 kilometers. This corridor separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

This corridor is also the only land connection between the Baltic States and other EU member states. Mastering this corridor also cuts off the land connection between Lithuania and Poland.

Moravitsky claimed that the situation is becoming increasingly dangerous, and Wagner personnel are likely to disguise themselves as Belarusian border guards, helping illegal immigrants enter Polish territory and destabilizing Poland. They are likely to impersonate illegal immigrants and enter Poland, which poses an additional threat.

According to Moravitsky, approximately 16000 immigrants have attempted to illegally cross the border into Poland so far this year, all of whom were instigated by Belarusian President Lukashenko and Putin to "push them to Poland".

Now, the brave Wagner has arrived, how about that?

This also seems to have been confirmed by the Belarusian side.

A few days ago, during a meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg, Lukashenko told Putin a "secret" that Wagner had already caused him a headache. Why? "Because they demanded permission to go westward. They said, 'Please allow us to go.' I asked, 'Why do you want to go to the West?' They secretly said, 'We want to travel to Warsaw and Jeshov...' 'Travel' was of course a euphemism, and Wagner wanted to take action against Poland.". So, Lukashenko said that in order to prevent Wagner from being too impulsive, he could only place them in central Belarus to avoid being too close to Poland. But now, the Polish Prime Minister says that Wagner has actually arrived in the border area, with the target being the Suwauki Corridor. Meanwhile, Western intelligence also revealed that Wagner was training Belarusian special forces nearby.

Poland is very nervous, and Lithuania is also very anxious. Lithuania has issued multiple warnings to the West that Wagner may disguise himself as an asylum seeker, attempting to cross the border between Belarus and EU member states, or launching provocative actions involving refugees.

And then what?

Controlling the Suvauki Corridor and cutting off the links between the Baltic States and the European Union, since Poland and Lithuania are the most active in assisting Ukraine, Wagner will take the most active action.

What should we do?

1. Urgently expand the army.

Poland has urgently ordered an increase in the number of active military personnel from 172000 to 300000, and has also ordered troops to move eastward to guard against any sudden actions by Wagner.

2. Close the border.

It's not closed yet. But Poland has made it clear that if any serious incidents involving Wagner occur along the border between Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia and Belarus, these three countries may jointly decide to immediately close their borders with Belarus.

3. Seek help from the elder brother.

The Lithuanian national army is only 20000, equivalent to Wagner, but Wagner is a seasoned veteran. So Poland, Lithuania and other countries urgently sought assistance from NATO, and Germany and other countries also sent troops to defend to avoid any changes on NATO's eastern flank.

The thing is like this, as the saying goes, pulling one hair can move the whole body. Poland is very nervous now, but the big show may have just begun.

Finally, what do you think?

Let's stick to the rough three points.

Firstly, Wagner will not stop.

If he falls into a slump, this is not Prigoren's personality, and Putin will definitely be very disappointed. So, after arriving in Belarus, we can see Wagner's frequent movements, advancing to the Polish border, training Belarusian special forces, and demanding a westward expedition from Lukashenko

Although Lukashenko chuckled, Wagner clearly became a card for Putin and him to deal with the West, not giving Poland and Lithuania a headache.

Polish ruling party chairman Kaczynski warned that Wagner militants did not come to Belarus for pleasure.

Let's just ride a donkey and read the singing book - let's wait and see.

Secondly, it can also be considered a chess move.

Wagner did not mutiny, and they would not go to Belarus; They cannot go to the Polish border until they reach Belarus; If they don't go to the Polish border, they won't pose a threat to the Suwaukee Corridor.

If - what I'm saying is - if Wagner really had friction with Poland and really entered the Suwauki Corridor, Russia would definitely shrug and say: the world knows they are all rebels and have nothing to do with us.

Wagner is completely acting on his own, let alone the fact that the West can send mercenaries to Ukraine, why can't Wagner act?

In this world, as long as you are willing to find, there are always plenty of reasons.

Thirdly, there is a real risk of war escalating.

Although the North Stream pipeline was bombed, the Crimean Bridge was bombed, the Kahovka Dam was bombed, and many cities have been reduced to ruins. Although a large number of people have fallen in a pool of blood, it is somewhat fortunate that the war is still limited to Russia and Ukraine, and even more terrifying nuclear disasters have not occurred.

But will it continue like this?

I always have a faint unease. Once I really kill someone, what do you care about? If the bridge is blown up, the dam is blown up, the pipeline is blown up, and the nuclear power plant cannot be blown up? Also, Wagner really took action on the Suwaukee Corridor, which opened up a second battlefield

On the battlefield, there is not much rationality. Don't think World War III, Putin is just joking around. At the beginning, sometimes one cannot help but constantly search for new chips.

But the ordinary people at the bottom are undoubtedly the biggest victims.

In this world, there are many things that you often see at the beginning but cannot guess the end. The ending is more of a tragedy.